NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Browns vs. Panthers (2022)
Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL Week 1 game between the Browns and Panthers.
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Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sep. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Panthers: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sep. 2
- Spread: Panthers -2.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Moneyline: Panthers -135, Browns +115
Browns at Panthers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sep. 2.
- Spread: Panthers – 80% bets, 98% money
- Over/Under: Under – 56% bets, 66% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 80% bets, 81% money
Browns at Panthers: Key Injuries
Cleveland Browns Injuries
- QB Deshaun Watson (suspended)
- EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR)
Carolina Panthers Injuries
- QB Sam Darnold (ankle, IR)
- QB Matt Corral (foot, IR)
- K Zane Gonzalez (groin, IR)
- C Bradley Bozeman (ankle) – week to week
- WR Robbie Anderson (hamstring) – status unknown
- TE Ian Thomas (ribs) – week to week
Injury Analysis
The Browns are healthy and will miss no one of consequence in Week 1 … other than Watson. Of course, it’s no small thing to be without your starting quarterback.
The Panthers aren’t overwhelmingly wounded on offense, but they’re not intact. Without Darnold and Corral, the Panthers have elevated No. 4 QB P.J. Walker to backup. Without Gonzalez, the Panthers will rely on training camp journeyman Eddy Pineiro, who has just 36 field goal attempts in the NFL.
And new starting QB Baker Mayfield might find himself without his No. 1 center and Nos. 2 wide receiver and tight end, all of whom enter the year with some injury uncertainty.
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Browns at Panthers: Situational Spots
Cleveland Browns Situation
The Browns don’t have one situationally easy game after the Week 9 bye, with 6-of-9 away and three home games against the Buccaneers, Ravens and Saints. That means they’ll need to accrue wins early in the year. Fortunately for them, they have one of the softest opening months of any team (at Panthers, Jets, Steelers, at Falcons). They could enter Week 5 accompanied by a 4-0 record and the severe animus of 31 fanbases.
Carolina Panthers Situation
The Panthers play 4-of-5 at home to open the season — but those four games are against the Browns, Saints, Cardinals and 49ers … and then after that the Panthers play 3-of-4 away in what’s their toughest stretch of the season (at Rams, Buccaneers, at Falcons, at Bengals).
This is the only game in Weeks 1-9 in which the Panthers are clear favorites (in Week 8 they’re -1.5 favorites at DraftKings, +1 underdogs at Caesars in the lookahead market). If they don’t win their season opener, HC Matt Rhule has a non-zero chance to enter Week 10 with a league-worst 0-9 record … if he hasn’t already been fired.
Browns at Panthers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cleveland Browns Trends
- Non-Postseason Teams: 73-46-4 ATS (19.1% ROI) as Week 1 road underdogs
Carolina Panthers Trends
- QB Baker Mayfield: 18-29-1 ATS (18.9% ROI for faders) in post-rookie seasons (2019-21, including playoffs)
- HC Matt Rhule: 3-8 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 4-12 ATS (46.2% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-6 ATS (66.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 19-14 (11.6% ROI) to the under
Browns at Panthers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cleveland Browns Offense vs. Carolina Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 18 | -0.031 | 7 | -11 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 21 | 41.2% | 4 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | 4.2% | 14 | -0.2% | 15 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.013 | 21 | 0.029 | 13 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.0% | 24 | 44.8% | 7 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.8% | 19 | 6.8% | 18 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.7% | 30 | 8.2% | 3 | -27 |
| Rush EPA | 0.015 | 5 | -0.111 | 9 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 42.0% | 12 | 36.4% | 4 | -8 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.5% | 1 | -8.2% | 15 | 14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.85 | 1 | 3.97 | 7 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 17 | 5.1 | 3 | -14 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 20 | 23.8 | 21 | 1 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | -4.3% | 17 | -2.6% | 20 | 3 |
Cleveland Browns Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6 (No. 24)
- AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
- QBR: 48.2 (No. 20, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.22 (No. 39)
2019-21: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 34)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.8 (No. 27)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 30)
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -36.3
Carolina Panthers Offense vs. Cleveland Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.132 | 30 | 0.019 | 18 | -12 |
| Total SR | 41.2% | 27 | 42.0% | 6 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -22.8% | 31 | -2.5% | 11 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.158 | 32 | 0.038 | 15 | -17 |
| Dropback SR | 41.1% | 31 | 42.7% | 3 | -28 |
| Pass DVOA | -24.2% | 32 | -0.8% | 7 | -25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.5% | 27 | 6.9% | 13 | -14 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 19 | -0.014 | 28 | 9 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 15 | 41.0% | 18 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -11.5% | 21 | -4.8% | 23 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.97 | 25 | 4.20 | 14 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 4.6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | -30 |
| Points per Game | 17.9 | 29 | 21.8 | 13 | -16 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -25.3% | 31 | -2.9% | 10 | -21 |
Carolina Panthers Quarterback Statistics
2021: Baker Mayfield
- EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 24)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.7 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 22)
- QBR: 35.1 (No. 27)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.67 (No. 50)
2019-21: Baker Mayfield
- EPA + CPOE: 0.078 (No. 24)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.6 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 24)
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: -36.5
Key Matchup: Browns Secondary vs. QB Baker Mayfield & Panthers Pass Catchers
This is a #RevengeGame for Mayfield … but it’s also one for the Browns, and in my projections model — as well as life, I believe — revenge belongs to the underdog.
Who is better equipped to exact revenge for the quarterback/team unraveling between Mayfield and the Browns?
Mayfield, who is mediocre at best and now tied to HC Matt Rhule, who last year had an offense that ranked dead last in both dropback EPA and pass DVOA?
Or the Browns defense, which last year was No. 3 in yards per play and has the No. 3 secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings?
The Browns are deep at cornerback (Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Greedy Williams, Martin Emerson and A.J. Green) and also safety (John Johnson, Grant Delpit and Ronnie Harrison). Plus, the secondary is supported by EDGEs Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, who last year combined for 29 sacks.
In our unit power rankings, the Browns secondary has a chasmic edge over the Panthers wide receivers and tight ends.
| Rank | Secondary | Opp WRs & TEs | WRs & TEs Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CLE | CAR | 21 | 18 |
In fantasy, I love No. 1 WR D.J. Moore.
But after him, the Panthers are underwhelming and unproven (WRs Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall, Rashard Higgins, Laviska Shenault and Shi Smith and TEs Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas). And Moore could see shadow coverage on the perimeter from Ward, who has allowed just 0.88 yards per coverage snap and 6.0 yards per target for his career and has never had a seasonal coverage grade below 72.5 (per PFF).
As for Mayfield, he has one of the worst quarterback matchups of Week 1.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | CLE | 13 | 3 | -11 | -21 |
Forget covering. I see the Browns winning this game outright.
Revenge, thy name is Cleveland.
Bet: Browns +2.5 (-108, FanDuel)
Personal Projection: Browns -0.5
Limit: Browns +1
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