Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 1 Projected Spreads & Best Bets
Let’s say that you’re in a season-long against-the-spread (ATS) picking contest. Like the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Or the Circa Million.
Or maybe you weren’t able to make it out to Nevada this year, so you’re looking to get into a similar contest from the comfort of home. You can do that at DraftKings, which is running a $1 million picks pool ($250 entry). I’m in it.
While all these contests have slight differences, they all have the same basic setup.
- Each week, you pick five games against the spread.
- If you win a bet, you get a point. If you push, you get half a point.
- At the end of the year, the person with the most points wins a lot of money.
In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the ATS bets that I like and 3) the five games that — as of this writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 1 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 1 game ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday morning and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| LAR | BUF | 2.5 | -1.25 | -3.75 |
| ATL | NO | 5.5 | 3.75 | -1.75 |
| NYJ | BAL | 7 | 5.25 | -1.75 |
| CIN | PIT | -6.5 | -5.25 | 1.25 |
| MIA | NE | -3.5 | -1 | 2.5 |
| WAS | JAX | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1 |
| CHI | SF | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| CAR | CLE | -1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
| HOU | IND | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| DET | PHI | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
| LAC | LV | -3.5 | -4.25 | -0.75 |
| MIN | GB | 1.5 | 3.25 | 1.75 |
| TEN | NYG | -5.5 | -3 | 2.5 |
| ARI | KC | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| DAL | TB | 2.5 | 1.25 | -1.25 |
Based on my projections right now, I’m willing to bet on six teams at their consensus lines.
- Rams +2.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Bears +7
- Browns +1.5
- Texans +7
- Giants +5.5
It looks like it’s an underdog kind of week. Phrased differently: It’s Week 1.
Freedman’s Week 1 Game Breakdowns
Late last week I published six individual game breakdowns highlighting the bets I like.
- Bills at Rams
- Patriots at Dolphins
- 49ers at Bears
- Browns at Panthers
- Colts at Texans
- Giants at Titans
Here’s the information from those articles, with updates.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Check out our Bills at Rams matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: NBC
Bills at Rams: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 52
- Moneyline: Bills -135, Rams +114
Bills at Rams: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Bills – 55% bets, 73% money
- Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, money data unavailable
- Moneyline: Rams – 38% bets, 39% money
Bills at Rams: Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills Injuries
- CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP)
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
- WR Van Jefferson (knee) – officially questionable, leaning doubtful
Buffalo Bills Injury Analysis
White is a top-10 (maybe top-five) cornerback. He rarely plays in the slot, but he possesses the talent to shadow and shut down perimeter receivers. For context: Compare his career numbers to those of Rams CB Jalen Ramsey (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).
- Target Rate: White – 11.9%, Ramsey – 14.1%
- Reception Rate: White – 56.0%, Ramsey – 56.9%
- Yards per Coverage Snap: White – 0.85, Ramsey – 1.01
- Yards per Target: White – 7.14, Ramsey – 7.14
I’m not suggesting that White is as good as Ramsey: No one is. But the Bills are missing their top cover man — and after Ramsey he might be the NFL’s best corner. His absence will be felt.
Los Angeles Rams Injury Analysis
Jefferson last year was silently one of the league’s best No. 3 wide receivers with 50-802-6 receiving on 89 targets (9.0 yards per target) — and the 2020 second-rounder could be even better entering his third season. The dropoff from Jefferson to backup WRs Ben Skowronek and TuTu Atwell is significant.
Bills at Rams: Situational Spots
Buffalo Bills Situation
As I mention in my NFL schedule breakdown, the Bills start the year with a gauntlet of games: At Rams on Thursday Night Football to open the season, home vs. Titans on Monday Night Football, at Dolphins and Ravens, home vs. Steelers and at Chiefs for a Divisional Round rematch before getting the bye in Week 7. That’s two overlapping 3-of-4 away stretches with home games against feisty franchises, and not one of their six opponents is a bottom-feeding team (at least based on my preseason power ratings).
It’s the season opener vs. the Super Bowl champions, so the Bills probably aren’t looking ahead to the rest of the schedule — but they are consensus Super Bowl favorites at +600, and if they lose this game … and then some games shortly after that, it will be a story.
This contest is a treacherous first step on what looks like a difficult journey. The pressure is almost certainly on.
Los Angeles Rams Situation
This is the first of back-to-back season-opening home games for the defending champions. Life is good.
Bills at Rams: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Buffalo Bills Trends
- QB Josh Allen: 18-8-2 ATS (30.9% ROI) on road
- QB Josh Allen: 8-3 ATS (42.0% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McDermott: 29-19-3 ATS (16.6% ROI) outside division
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 12-8 ATS (17.2% ROI) as underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 15-9-1 ATS (20.3% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McVay: 8-2 ATS (56.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
- Super Bowl Champs: 10-5-1 ATS in Week 1 primetime
Bills at Rams: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Buffalo Bills Offense vs. Los Angeles Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.091 | 4 | -0.025 | 9 | 5 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 44.5% | 15 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 10 | -8.5% | 5 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.165 | 8 | 0.028 | 12 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 3 | 47.5% | 21 | 18 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.7% | 13 | -1.2% | 6 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.5% | 2 | 7.6% | 8 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.050 | 12 | -0.116 | 6 | -6 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 21 | 39.3% | 12 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.8% | 9 | -18.1% | 5 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.40 | 12 | 3.84 | 6 | -6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.2 | 7 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 28.4 | 3 | 21.9 | 15 | 12 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 16.8% | 3 | -3.5% | 18 | 15 |
Buffalo Bills Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.121 (No. 11)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 17)
- QBR: 60.7 (No. 6)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 4.17 (No. 5)
2019-21: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.126 (No. 14)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.8 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 16)
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 54.9
Los Angeles Rams Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.082 | 8 | -0.111 | 1 | -7 |
| Total SR | 46.6% | 9 | 40.2% | 2 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 8 | -18.0% | 1 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.183 | 4 | -0.114 | 1 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 9 | 41.9% | 2 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | 26.6% | 7 | -23.0% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 7 | 7.6% | 7 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 19 | -0.107 | 11 | -8 |
| Rush SR | 40.6% | 19 | 37.5% | 6 | -13 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.9% | 12 | -11.9% | 11 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.62 | 6 | 3.64 | 4 | -2 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 3 | 4.6 | 1 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 27.1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | -6 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | 14.7% | 8 | -17.5% | 4 | -4 |
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics
2021: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.129 (No. 6)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 8.2 (No. 5)
- QBR: 63.8 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.96 (No. 10)
2019-21: Matthew Stafford
- EPA + CPOE: 0.122 (No. 15)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.0 (No. 3)
- AY/A: 8.3 (No. 7)
Career: Matthew Stafford
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 23.4
Key Matchup: Rams WRs vs. Bills CBs
The Bills are without their top two perimeter cover men from last season, given that No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (knee) is out and No. 2 CB Levi Wallace left in free agency. They still have slot corner Taron Johnson, who is competent (6.84 yards per target for career) — but last year he played significantly worse after White’s season-ending injury, based on his average weekly PFF coverage grade.
- Weeks 1-12 (With White): 70.8
- Weeks 13-20 (Without White): 59.9
Without White locking down a third of the field on the perimeter, the Bills couldn’t give Johnson the same middle-of-the-field support with safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the second half of the season, and his play predictably dropped.
Now that the Bills are without White and Wallace, how will they use Hyde and Poyer to help their corners?
If they shade toward the sidelines, then Johnson will be left on his own vs. 2021 Offensive Player of the Year and All-Pro WR Cooper Kupp, who last year led the league with an obscene 191 targets, 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns receiving, a 31.7% target share and 37 red-zone targets (per our Advanced Wide Receiver Stats Report). For his career, Kupp has 9.2 yards per target.
Johnson is mountainously outmatched against Kupp: There’s no way the Bills won’t give him safety help.
And that means their perimeter cornerbacks will be vulnerable against WR Allen Robinson.
Yeah, I’ve been low on Robinson throughout fantasy draft season.
But he has three 1,000-yard seasons, and now he’s catching passes from QB Matthew Stafford — easily the best passer of his career. Reports on Robinson have been glowing for the entirety of the preseason.
At corner against Robinson we’re likely to see Dane Jackson on one side and a rotation of rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford on the other side.
Jackson — a 2020 seventh-rounder — started eight games in White’s stead last year. In not one of them did he have a PFF coverage grade of even 70. He’s scrappy, but he’s also average at best. And neither Elam (first-rounder) nor Benford (seventh-rounder) has played an NFL snap. As intriguing as they looked in the preseason (Elam – 5.0 yards per target; Benford – 4.5), that was just the preseason.
I expect Kupp and Robinson to be too much for Johnson, Jackson and the rookies.
Bet: Rams +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Rams -1.25
Limit: Rams +0.5
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Patriots at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -177, Patriots +150
Patriots at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Dolphins – 66% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Over – 40% bets, 62% money
- Moneyline: Dolphins – 56% bets, 59% money
Patriots at Dolphins: Key Injuries
New England Patriots Injuries
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle) – unknown status
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder) – out for first half of season
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR)
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR)
Miami Dolphins Injuries
- CB Byron Jones (ankle, PUP)
- TE Adam Shaheen (knee, IR)
New England Patriots Injury Analysis
The Patriots enter the season relatively healthy: Thornton is the only potential starter who will miss Week 1.
Miami Dolphins Injury Analysis
The Dolphins will be without Jones, their No. 2 corner, but they otherwise are also healthy.
Patriots at Dolphins: Situational Spots
New England Patriots Situation
The Patriots open the season with 3-of-4 on the road (at Dolphins, at Steelers, Ravens, at Packers), and they’re favored in just one of those games. After making the playoffs last year, the Patriots have a real chance to start 0-4.
Miami Dolphins Situation
The Dolphins have a brutal run of games near the end of the season in Weeks 13-17 (at 49ers, at Chargers, at Bills, Packers, at Patriots), so they need to bank some wins early in the year — but they also open with a challenging four-game stretch (Patriots, at Ravens, Bills, at Bengals). After Week 1, the Dolphins are underdogs of more than a field goal in each of their next three games. As much as the Patriots need this game, the Dolphins might need it more.
Patriots at Dolphins: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick: 30-15-2 ATS (29.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 25-22 ML (36.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 29-23 ATS (10.1% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- Divisional Road Underdogs: 284-211-17 ATS (11.7% ROI) in Weeks 1-10
Miami Dolphins Trends
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 8-3 ATS (39.4% ROI) at home
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 3-0 ATS (90.8% ROI) vs. Patriots
Patriots at Dolphins: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
New England Patriots Offense vs. Miami Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | -0.027 | 8 | -2 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.0% | 9 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | -2.9% | 10 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.133 | 11 | -0.016 | 7 | -4 |
| Dropback SR | 50.8% | 5 | 44.7% | 6 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 24.7% | 10 | -0.3% | 9 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.4% | 8 | 8.0% | 4 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.012 | 7 | -0.046 | 22 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 45.7% | 4 | 40.2% | 17 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.9% | 7 | -6.6% | 17 | 10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.52 | 9 | 4.21 | 16 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.3 | 11 | 1 |
| Points per Game | 27.2 | 6 | 21.9 | 15 | 9 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | -12.8% | 23 | -10.4% | 4 | -19 |
New England Patriots Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.1 (No. 12)
- AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 50.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.08 (No. 24)
Miami Dolphins Offense vs. New England Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.046 | 22 | -0.063 | 4 | -18 |
| Total SR | 41.8% | 24 | 42.5% | 7 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | -10.8% | 24 | -12.8% | 4 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.028 | 20 | -0.051 | 4 | -16 |
| Dropback SR | 47.0% | 15 | 44.9% | 8 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.8% | 23 | -12.6% | 3 | -20 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 19 | 6.8% | 14 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.180 | 31 | -0.080 | 14 | -17 |
| Rush SR | 32.3% | 30 | 38.9% | 11 | -19 |
| Rush DVOA | -23.1% | 29 | -13.1% | 10 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.81 | 30 | 4.45 | 22 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 28 | 5.1 | 3 | -25 |
| Points per Game | 20.1 | 22 | 17.8 | 2 | -20 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -19.9% | 2 | -23 |
Miami Dolphins Quarterback Statistics
2021: Tua Tagovailoa
- EPA + CPOE: 0.085 (No. 19)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.2 (No. 33)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 23)
- QBR: 49.7 (No. 18)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.42 (No. 29)
2019-21: Tua Tagovailoa
- EPA + CPOE: 0.072 (No. 25)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.5 (No. 34)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 27)
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Offense vs. Dolphins Run Defense
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we have the Patriots offensive line in the top 10 and the Dolphins defensive line outside the top 20.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NE | MIA | 22 | 15 |
And we see the Patriots running backs as having a significant edge over the Dolphins defensive front seven.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | NE | MIA | 22 | 24 | 10 | 12 |
In 2021, the Patriots offense had a notable statistical edge over the Dolphins defense in Rush EPA (7 vs. 22), Rush SR (4 vs. 17), Rush DVOA (7 vs. 17) and Adjusted Line Yards (9 vs. 16).
With the departure of defense-focused HC Brian Flores, the Dolphins might be worse on that side of the ball than they were last year, and they also might’ve lost their Pats-specific edge, given that Flores used to coach on the New England staff.
A gap-heavy rushing team for years, the Patriots have been called out this offseason by beat reporters for struggling to implement a zone-blocking scheme in practice. To me, this development doesn’t mean that the Patriots are actually going to abandon the power attack. I think it means that they’re experimenting with and adding to the running game to make it even more dominant.
This offseason, the Patriots jettisoned RG Shaq Mason via trade and they lost LG Ted Karras in free agency, but they otherwise have good continuity along the offensive line with veterans LT Trent Brown, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu (who started eight games last year at left guard and right tackle) and RT Isaiah Wynn, all of whom have started multiple seasons for the team.
To this cohesive unit the Patriots added first-round rookie LG Cole Strange, who was a collegiate mauler as a run blocker.
RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson make up one of the league’s best backfield duos, and the Dolphins are foundationally weak up the middle: NT Raekwon Davis last year had a 36.1 run defense grade and 29.1 tackling grade (per Pro Football Focus).
If the Patriots are able to dominate the ball and extend drives with their ground game, they should be able to keep this game close.
Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Patriots +3 (-105)
Personal Projection: Patriots +1
Limit: Patriots +3
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Check out our 49ers at Bears matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- TV: FOX
49ers at Bears: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: 49ers -7
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Moneyline: 49ers -305, Bears +250
49ers at Bears: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Bears – 29% bets, 65% money
- Over/Under: Under – 59% bets, 70% money
- Moneyline: Bears – 31% bets, 46% money
49ers at Bears: Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers Injuries
- C Daniel Brunskill (hamstring) – week to week
- CB Jason Verrett (knee, PUP)
- S Jimmie Ward (hamstring, IR)
Chicago Bears Injuries
- C Lucas Patrick (hand) – out indefinitely
- RG Dakota Dozier (knee, IR)
- WR N’Keal Harry (ankle, IR)
- CB Tavon Young (leg, IR)
San Francisco 49ers Injury Analysis
Over the past three years, Brunskill has made starts at literally every spot on the offensive line. After starting 20 games at right guard last year, he’s expected to shift to the pivot in place of retired C Alex Mack. If he misses Week 1, that would mean that the 49ers would have three new starters on the interior of their offensive line — minus Brunksill, Mack and LG Laken Tomlinson (free agency), as well as competent backup G/T Tom Compton (free agency) — and that could be detrimental to new starting QB Trey Lance.
It’s also notable that the 49ers will be without two starters in their secondary (Verrett and Ward), which leaves them incredibly thin, given the offseason departures of starters CB Josh Norman, CB K’Waun Williams and S Jaquiski Tartt, as well as depth S Tavon Wilson.
Chicago Bears Injury Analysis
As for the Bears, they will be without one projected starter on the offensive line (Dozier), and they could be without another one (Patrick), which feels like a big problem, as the team lost starters LT Jason Peters, RT Germain Ifedi and RG James Daniels this offseason. They will also be without Young at slot corner.
49ers at Bears: Situational Spots
San Francisco 49ers Situation
After an offseason filled with more than a soupçon of quarterback intrigue, the 49ers get to ease Lance into his new starting role with two season-opening cupcake contests against the Bears and Seahawks.
But they better win those first two games, because they open the year with 4-of-6 away and then face the Chiefs and Rams in Weeks 7-8. If the 49ers are 3-5 entering the Week 9 bye, Lance will start in Week 10. But if they’re 2-6, fans will call for HC Kyle Shanahan to reinstate backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter.
Chicago Bears Situation
After hosting the 49ers in Week 1, the Bears play 5-of-7 away, with three of those games coming in primetime. Only once in Weeks 1-8 are the Bears favored in the lookahead market. It could be a rough first half of the season for QB Justin Fields and new HC Matt Eberflus.
49ers at Bears: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
San Francisco 49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-24-1 ATS (15.3% ROI for faders) as favorite (including postseason)
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-21-1 ATS (14.1% ROI for faders) without Garoppolo as starter
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 0-4-1 ATS (55.0% ROI for faders) in Week 1
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 27-17 ATS (19.4%) on road (including postseason)
Chicago Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 3-7 ATS (35.4% ROI for faders) overall
- QB Justin Fields: 1-4 ATS (53.1% ROI for faders) at home
- QB Justin Fields: 7-3 (34.6% ROI) to the under
49ers at Bears: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
San Francisco 49ers Offense vs. Chicago Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.085 | 6 | 0.032 | 22 | 16 |
| Total SR | 45.5% | 12 | 44.5% | 15 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | 14.9% | 5 | -0.9% | 13 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.174 | 5 | 0.076 | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback SR | 47.7% | 13 | 46.6% | 15 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.7% | 5 | 2.3% | 12 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 17 | 9.6% | 1 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.024 | 8 | -0.023 | 26 | 18 |
| Rush SR | 42.8% | 9 | 41.9% | 23 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.0% | 4 | -4.3% | 24 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.40 | 11 | 4.41 | 20 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 1 | 5.3 | 11 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 25.1 | 13 | 23.9 | 22 | 9 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 11.2% | 7 | -13.4% | 2 | -5 |
San Francisco 49ers Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2021: Trey Lance
- EPA + CPOE: 0.0.39 (No. 28, if qualified)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.5 (No. 3, if qualified)
- AY/A: 8.6 (No. 3, if qualified)
- QBR: 33.4 (No. 29, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.52 (No. 31)
Chicago Bears Offense vs. San Francisco 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.087 | 29 | 0.004 | 14 | -15 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 26 | 41.7% | 5 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 26 | -7.4% | 7 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.077 | 29 | 0.098 | 23 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 43.6% | 27 | 46.2% | 13 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.3% | 26 | 5.1% | 15 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.5% | 32 | 8.0% | 5 | -27 |
| Rush EPA | -0.105 | 23 | -0.151 | 2 | -21 |
| Rush SR | 37.7% | 25 | 34.2% | 2 | -23 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.5% | 23 | -24.8% | 2 | -21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.06 | 23 | 3.56 | 2 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 26 | 5.1 | 3 | -23 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 27 | 21.5 | 9 | -18 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -12.5% | 26 | -7.1% | 7 | -19 |
Chicago Bears Quarterback Statistics
2021: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.0.14 (No. 34)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 9.7 (No. 2)
- AY/A: 5.8 (No. 28)
- QBR: 26.4 (No. 31)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.56 (No. 46)
Key Matchup: QB Justin Fields vs. 49ers Secondary
As noted earlier, the 49ers are without starters CB Jason Verrett and S Jimmie Ward — and over the offseason they lost starters CB Josh Norman, CB K’Waun Williams and S Jaquiski Tartt.
As bad as the Bears offense was last year, it wasn’t much worse in dropback EPA (No. 29) than was the 49ers defense (No. 23). And based on our FantasyPros unit power rankings, Fields isn’t at a massive disadvantage against the 49ers secondary.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Justin Fields | CHI | SF | 3 | 17 | -17 | -3 |
Sure, Fields has a tough matchup overall. We have the 49ers defense ranked No. 4, thanks mainly to their strong defensive line (No. 2) and off-ball linebackers (No. 1). But Fields — the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback as a high school recruit in 2018 — might have the scrambling ability to escape the pocket and pick up chunk yardage on the ground (72-420-2 rushing last year; 3.72 yards after contact per carry, No. 2 at position, per PFF).
And he probably has the weapons in WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet to attack the 49ers downfield and between the numbers.
I’m not going to put too much stock in preseason performance, but Fields looked good in August with 243-3-0 on 23-of-30 passing and 4-44-0 rushing — better than all the other quarterbacks in his draft class.
And it’s not unthinkable for a first-round quarterback to take a significant step forward in his second season.
The Bears should absolutely lose this game, but the 49ers secondary might help them make it look almost respectable in the fourth quarter.
Bet: Bears +7 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Bears +7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +4
Limit: Bears +6
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Check out our Browns at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Panthers: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Panthers -1.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Moneyline: Panthers -125, Browns +108
Browns at Panthers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Panthers – 78% bets, 93% money
- Over/Under: Under – 59% bets, 66% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 19% bets, 27% money
Browns at Panthers: Key Injuries
Cleveland Browns Injuries
- QB Deshaun Watson (suspended)
- EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR)
Carolina Panthers Injuries
- QB Sam Darnold (ankle, IR)
- QB Matt Corral (foot, IR)
- K Zane Gonzalez (groin, IR)
- WR Robbie Anderson (hamstring) – status unknown
- TE Ian Thomas (ribs) – week to week
Cleveland Browns Injury Analysis
The Browns are healthy and will miss no one of consequence in Week 1 … other than Watson. Of course, it’s no small thing to be without your starting quarterback.
Carolina Panthers Injury Analysis
The Panthers aren’t overwhelmingly wounded on offense, but they’re not intact. Without Darnold and Corral, the Panthers have elevated No. 4 QB P.J. Walker to backup. Without Gonzalez, the Panthers will rely on training camp journeyman Eddy Pineiro, who has just 36 field goal attempts in the NFL.
And new starting QB Baker Mayfield might find himself without his Nos. 2 wide receiver and tight end, both of whom enter the year with some injury uncertainty.
Browns at Panthers: Situational Spots
Cleveland Browns Situation
The Browns don’t have one situationally easy game after the Week 9 bye, with 6-of-9 away and three home games against the Buccaneers, Ravens and Saints. That means they’ll need to accrue wins early in the year. Fortunately for them, they have one of the softest opening months of any team (at Panthers, Jets, Steelers, at Falcons). They could enter Week 5 accompanied by a 4-0 record and the severe animus of 31 fanbases.
Carolina Panthers Situation
The Panthers play 4-of-5 at home to open the season — but those four games are against the Browns, Saints, Cardinals and 49ers … and then after that the Panthers play 3-of-4 away in what’s their toughest stretch of the season (at Rams, Buccaneers, at Falcons, at Bengals).
This is the only game in Weeks 1-9 in which the Panthers are clear favorites (in Week 8 they’re -1.5 favorites at DraftKings, +1 underdogs at Caesars in the lookahead market). If they don’t win their season opener, HC Matt Rhule has a non-zero chance to enter Week 10 with a league-worst 0-9 record … if he hasn’t already been fired.
Browns at Panthers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cleveland Browns Trends
- Non-Postseason Teams: 73-46-4 ATS (19.1% ROI) as Week 1 road underdogs
Carolina Panthers Trends
- QB Baker Mayfield: 18-29-1 ATS (18.9% ROI for faders) in post-rookie seasons (2019-21, including playoffs)
- HC Matt Rhule: 3-8 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 4-12 ATS (46.2% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-6 ATS (66.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 19-14 (11.6% ROI) to the under
Browns at Panthers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cleveland Browns Offense vs. Carolina Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 18 | -0.031 | 7 | -11 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 21 | 41.2% | 4 | -17 |
| Total DVOA | 4.2% | 14 | -0.2% | 15 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.013 | 21 | 0.029 | 13 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.0% | 24 | 44.8% | 7 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.8% | 19 | 6.8% | 18 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.7% | 30 | 8.2% | 3 | -27 |
| Rush EPA | 0.015 | 5 | -0.111 | 9 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 42.0% | 12 | 36.4% | 4 | -8 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.5% | 1 | -8.2% | 15 | 14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.85 | 1 | 3.97 | 7 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 17 | 5.1 | 3 | -14 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 20 | 23.8 | 21 | 1 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | -4.3% | 17 | -2.6% | 20 | 3 |
Cleveland Browns Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6 (No. 24)
- AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
- QBR: 48.2 (No. 20, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.22 (No. 39)
2019-21: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 34)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.8 (No. 27)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 30)
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -36.3
Carolina Panthers Offense vs. Cleveland Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.132 | 30 | 0.019 | 18 | -12 |
| Total SR | 41.2% | 27 | 42.0% | 6 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -22.8% | 31 | -2.5% | 11 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.158 | 32 | 0.038 | 15 | -17 |
| Dropback SR | 41.1% | 31 | 42.7% | 3 | -28 |
| Pass DVOA | -24.2% | 32 | -0.8% | 7 | -25 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.5% | 27 | 6.9% | 13 | -14 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 19 | -0.014 | 28 | 9 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 15 | 41.0% | 18 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -11.5% | 21 | -4.8% | 23 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.97 | 25 | 4.20 | 14 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 4.6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | -30 |
| Points per Game | 17.9 | 29 | 21.8 | 13 | -16 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -25.3% | 31 | -2.9% | 10 | -21 |
Carolina Panthers Quarterback Statistics
2021: Baker Mayfield
- EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 24)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.7 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 22)
- QBR: 35.1 (No. 27)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.67 (No. 50)
2019-21: Baker Mayfield
- EPA + CPOE: 0.078 (No. 24)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.6 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 24)
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: -36.5
Key Matchup: Browns Secondary vs. QB Baker Mayfield & Panthers Pass Catchers
This is a #RevengeGame for Mayfield … but it’s also one for the Browns, and in my projections model — as well as life, I believe — revenge belongs to the underdog.
Who is better equipped to exact revenge for the quarterback/team unraveling between Mayfield and the Browns?
Mayfield, who is mediocre at best and now tied to HC Matt Rhule, who last year had an offense that ranked dead last in both dropback EPA and pass DVOA?
Or the Browns defense, which last year was No. 3 in yards per play and has the No. 3 secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings?
The Browns are deep at cornerback (Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Greedy Williams, Martin Emerson and A.J. Green) and also safety (John Johnson, Grant Delpit and Ronnie Harrison). Plus, the secondary is supported by EDGEs Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, who last year combined for 29 sacks.
In our unit power rankings, the Browns secondary has a chasmic edge over the Panthers wide receivers and tight ends.
| Rank | Secondary | Opp WRs & TEs | WRs & TEs Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CLE | CAR | 22 | 8 |
In fantasy, I love No. 1 WR D.J. Moore.
But after him, the Panthers are underwhelming and unproven (WRs Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall, Rashard Higgins, Laviska Shenault and Shi Smith and TEs Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas). And Moore could see shadow coverage on the perimeter from Ward, who has allowed just 0.88 yards per coverage snap and 6.0 yards per target for his career and has never had a seasonal coverage grade below 72.5 (per PFF).
As for Mayfield, he has one of the worst quarterback matchups of Week 1.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | CLE | 11 | 3 | -13 | -21 |
Forget covering. I see the Browns winning this game outright.
Revenge, thy name is Cleveland.
Bet: Browns +2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Browns +2.5 (-108)
Personal Projection: Browns -0.5
Limit: Browns +1
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Check out our Colts at Texans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Colts at Texans: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Colts -7
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Colts -335, Texans +275
Colts at Texans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Texans – 51% bets, 88% money
- Over/Under: Under – 24% bets, 27% money
- Moneyline: Texans – 40% bets, 44% money
Colts at Texans: Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts Injuries
- LB Shaquille Leonard (back) – questionable
- P Rigoberto Sanchez (Achilles, IR)
Houston Texans Injuries
- WR John Metchie (leukemia, PUP)
- TE Pharaoh Brown (hamstring) – questionable
- LB Christian Harris (undisclosed, IR)
- CB Tavierre Thomas (quad, IR)
Indianapolis Colts Injury Analysis
Leonard was activated from the PUP just last week after an extended absence.
He’s far from guaranteed to play in Week 1, and his absence would be felt in the middle of the Colts defense. As for Sanchez, he’s a punter.
Houston Texans Injury Analysis
A second-round rookie, Metchie would’ve been a Week 1 starter if not for his health. The Texans seem optimistic that he’ll be able to return to action in 2023.
Brown is an inline blocking specialist, and Harris and Thomas are rotational backups who are out for the year.
Colts at Texans: Situational Spots
Indianapolis Colts Situation
The Colts with new QB Matt Ryan open the season with winnable but divisional road games in Weeks 1-2. In Week 3, they play their home opener against the Chiefs, who have three extra days of rest. And then they have three more divisional games sandwiched around a road game at Broncos on short rest (elevation, Thursday Night Football).
That’s five — FIVE! — divisional games in the first seven weeks of the season … and then they don’t have another divisional matchup until Week 18 vs. Texans. In this first-half stretch, the Colts play the top-seeded Titans twice in the same month, with the rematch on the road and the Titans coming off the bye.
More than most teams do, the Colts need to win in Week 1.
Houston Texans Situation
The Texans are significant underdogs in Week 1 — and then after that they play 3-of-4 away (with a home game against the Chargers). Maybe the Texans can upset the Colts and then steal road wins in Weeks 3 & 5 against the uninspiring Bears and Jaguars.
Or maybe they enter the Week 6 bye with an 0-5 record and in prime position to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
Big picture: Either outcome is probably a net positive for the franchise.
Colts at Texans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Indianapolis Colts Trends
- HC Frank Reich: 21-12-2 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (including postseason)
- HC Frank Reich: 0-3-1 ATS (77.0% ROI for faders) in Week 1
- QB Matt Ryan: 5-9 ATS (26.7% ROI for faders) in Week 1
Houston Texans Trends
- HC Lovie Smith: 41-51-1 ATS (9.2% ROI for faders) at home in NFL (including postseason)
- HC Lovie Smith: 13-17 ATS (10.3% ROI for faders) at home in CFB
- QB Davis Mills: 3-1 ATS (44.2% ROI) in last month of 2021 rookie season
- Divisional Underdogs: 58-36-2 ATS (20.3% ROI) in Week 1
- Non-Postseason Divisional Underdogs: 53-23-2 ATS (35.5% ROI) in Week 1
- Indoor Divisional Overs: 17-7 (39.1% ROI) in Week 1
Colts at Texans: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Indianapolis Colts Offense vs. Houston Texans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.06 | 13 | 0.077 | 26 | 13 |
| Total SR | 44.6% | 17 | 48.1% | 31 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 4.4% | 13 | 3.6% | 23 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.055 | 17 | 0.161 | 25 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.7% | 18 | 52.5% | 32 | 14 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.2% | 20 | 11.1% | 22 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 13 | 6.0% | 23 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | 0.065 | 1 | -0.029 | 23 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 43.0% | 8 | 42.7% | 26 | 18 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.4% | 2 | -4.9% | 22 | 20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.60 | 7 | 4.60 | 25 | 18 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 15 | 5.9 | 28 | 13 |
| Points per Game | 26.5 | 9 | 26.6 | 27 | 18 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 10.4% | 9 | 7.6% | 29 | 20 |
Indianapolis Colts Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Matt Ryan
- EPA + CPOE: 0.071 (No. 21)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.2 (No. 32)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 19)
- QBR: 46.1 (No. 21)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.42 (No. 28)
2019-21: Matt Ryan
- EPA + CPOE: 0.089 (No. 23)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.1 (No. 19)
- AY/A: 7.1 (No. 22)
Career: Matt Ryan
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 41.2
Houston Texans Offense vs. Indianapolis Colts Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.134 | 31 | 0 | 13 | -18 |
| Total SR | 37.6% | 32 | 45.4% | 20 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | -22.0% | 30 | -4.9% | 8 | -22 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.086 | 30 | 0.063 | 18 | -12 |
| Dropback SR | 43.0% | 28 | 49.6% | 26 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.6% | 29 | 5.9% | 17 | -12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.6% | 22 | 5.6% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush EPA | -0.213 | 32 | -0.112 | 8 | -24 |
| Rush SR | 29.0% | 32 | 38.1% | 7 | -25 |
| Rush DVOA | -33.2% | 32 | -21.6% | 3 | -29 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.33 | 32 | 4.21 | 15 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 30 | 5.6 | 22 | -8 |
| Points per Game | 16.5 | 30 | 21.5 | 9 | -21 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -13.4% | 27 | -4.1% | 8 | -19 |
Houston Texans Quarterback Statistics
2021: Davis Mills
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 30)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.3 (No. 30)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 25)
- QBR: 35.5 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.11 (No. 36)
Key Matchup: QB Davis Mills vs. Colts Secondary
This Week 1 Colts secondary will not look like last year’s unit.
CB Kenny Moore will continue to man the slot, but perimeter starters Xavier Rhodes (free agency) and Rock-Ya Sin (traded) and backup T.J. Carrie (free agency) are all gone.
At safety, the Colts had five players with 100 snaps last year. Four of them — Andrew Sendejo (free agency), Khari Willis (retired), George Odum (free agency) and Jahleel Addae (free agency) — are now gone. Only starter Julian Blackmon remains.
And they have lost DC Matt Eberflus (now the Bears head coach) and replaced him with Gus Bradley, a master of mediocrity who is on his third coordinator job in as many years. Over the past three seasons, Bradley’s “break, don’t bend†defenses have ranked No. 10 in yards … but No. 21 in scoring.
No. 1 CB Stephon Gilmore was a good offseason addition, but he turns 32 years old in September and could slow down this season. Starting perimeter CB Brandon Facyson is a Bradley favorite who knows the system from their time together with the Chargers and Raiders over the past four seasons — but he’s a total liability in coverage with a 17.9% target rate and 1.33 yards per coverage snap for his career (including playoffs, per PFF). And starting safety Nick Cross is a rookie.
Bradley doesn’t seem like the kind of coordinator who can quickly pull together a secondary with that much turnover and vulnerability.
As for Mills, he finished his 2021 rookie season on a five-game hot streak after returning to the starting lineup in Week 14 (1,258-9-2 passing, 7.9 AY/A, 0.080 EPA + CPOE), and he could be better this year, given that quarterbacks typically progress in their second seasons and OC Pep Hamilton was his position coach and passing game coordinator last year.
With an upside pass-catching trio of WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins and TE Brevin Jordan, the feisty Mills could keep this game close.
Bet: Texans +7 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Texans +8.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Texans +5
Limit: Texans +7
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Check out our Giants at Titans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Giants at Titans: Consensus Lines
Lines from our BettingPros odds page and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Titans -5.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Titans -250, Giants +205
Giants at Titans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 7.
- Spread: Giants – 49% bets, 91% money
- Over/Under: Over – 59% bets, money data unavailable
- Moneyline: Titans – 37% bets, 53% money
Giants at Titans: Key Injuries
New York Giants Injuries
- LG Shane Lemieux (toe, IR)
- C/G Nick Gates (knee, PUP)
- G Marcus McKethan (knee, IR)
- OT Matt Peart (knee, PUP)
- WR Collin Johnson (Achilles, IR)
- WR Sterling Shepard (Achilles) – questionable
- WR Darius Slayton (personal) – questionable
- QB Tyrod Taylor (back) – questionable
- EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (knee) – questionable
- S Dane Belton (shoulder) – questionable
Tennessee Titans Injuries
- EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR)
- LB Monty Rice (undisclosed, PUP)
New York Giants Injury Analysis
The Giants offensive depth is decimated. The line in particular looks rough. The interior has been hollowed out due to the absence of Lemieux (starter), Gates (top C/G backup) and McKethan (rookie third-stringer). On the perimeter, the team is vulnerable without Peart (top swing tackle).
At receiver, Shepard seems unlikely to play in Week 1 because of his season-ending injury last year, Slayton has been pushed down the depth chart and Johnson (a top backup) is out for the year.
And Taylor, one of the league’s best backup quarterbacks, is also questionable.
On the defensive side of the ball, Thibodeaux (No. 1 pass rusher) and Belton (No. 3 safety) are both questionable.
Tennessee Titans Injury Analysis
The Titans will miss Landry (16 sacks in 18 games last year) and maybe even Rice (No. 3 linebacker).
Giants at Titans: Situational Spots
New York Giants Situation
The Giants have the easiest schedule of any team (based on the market win totals of all their opponents), so they can afford to lose this game, which is one of the toughest they have. After Week 1, the Giants play 4-of-5 at home, and the fifth game is on a neutral field. Then they play the Jaguars and Seahawks (albeit both on the road) before the Week 9 bye.
After that, the Giants kick off the second half of the year with another 4-of-5 stretch at home, which includes games against the Texans, Lions and Commanders. It’s not inconceivable that the Giants could have an 8-5 record entering the final month … even if they lose in Week 1.
Tennessee Titans
As the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, the Titans have a tough schedule this year — and they have nine games on the road. It helps that play the Jaguars and Texans twice, and most of the NFC East is manageable.
But they also play the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Bengals, Broncos, Cowboys and Colts (twice), all of whom have win totals of 10 at various sportsbooks.
If the Titans can’t get a win at home against the Giants, this is highly unlikely to be an enjoyable season for their fans.
Giants at Titans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
New York Giants Trends
- Non-Postseason Teams: 73-46-4 ATS (19.1% ROI) as Week 1 road underdogs
- QB Daniel Jones: 17-13 ATS (9.2% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 12-6 ATS (29.2% ROI) on road
- QB Daniel Jones: 11-4 ATS (42.1% ROI) as road underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 22-14 (17.0% ROI) to the under
Tennessee Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite (including postseason)
- HC Mike Vrabel: 1-3 ATS (47.8% ROI for faders) in Week 1 (including postseason)
Giants at Titans: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
New York Giants Offense vs. Tennessee Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.141 | 32 | -0.018 | 10 | -22 |
| Total SR | 40.2% | 30 | 42.6% | 8 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -28.1% | 32 | -2.3% | 12 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.146 | 31 | 0.011 | 9 | -22 |
| Dropback SR | 41.1% | 31 | 44.0% | 5 | -26 |
| Pass DVOA | -22.7% | 31 | 1.8% | 11 | -20 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 14 | 7.2% | 10 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.133 | 27 | -0.082 | 13 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 38.6% | 22 | 39.5% | 13 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -24.6% | 30 | -9.2% | 14 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.74 | 31 | 4.06 | 10 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 30 | 5.4 | 15 | -15 |
| Points per Game | 15.2 | 31 | 20.8 | 5 | -26 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | -30.1% | 31 | -8.1% | 7 | -24 |
New York Giants Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2019-21 data: Min. 600 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 600 pass attempts for AY/A.
2021: Daniel Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.048 (No. 25)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.1 (No. 34)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 26)
- QBR: 41.5 (No. 22)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.73 (No. 33)
2019-21: Daniel Jones
- EPA + CPOE: 0.040 (No. 35)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.6 (No. 30)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 29)
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -34.0
Tennessee Titans Offense vs. New York Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.025 | 15 | 0.028 | 21 | 6 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 15 | 46.4% | 24 | 9 |
| Total DVOA | -4.2% | 20 | 2.8% | 18 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.092 | 14 | 0.048 | 16 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 50.6% | 6 | 47.7% | 22 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | 5.8% | 21 | 2.9% | 14 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.4% | 26 | 6.2% | 21 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.054 | 13 | -0.001 | 32 | 19 |
| Rush SR | 37.8% | 24 | 44.4% | 29 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.5% | 17 | 2.7% | 32 | 15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 16 | 4.78 | 31 | 15 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.3 | 11 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 24.6 | 15 | 24.5 | 23 | 8 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | -3.7% | 20 | 8.3% | 22 | 2 |
Tennessee Titans Quarterback Statistics
2021: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 7.4 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
- QBR: 55.9 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.19 (No. 20)
2019-21: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.157 (No. 3)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.2 (No. 16)
- AY/A: 8.2 (No. 9)
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -3.9
Key Matchup: Giants Secondary vs. Titans Pass Catchers
Last year in Week 1, WRs A.J. Brown (8), Julio Jones (6) and Chester Rogers (6) and TE Anthony Firkser (4) led the Titans in targets. They’re all gone.
They’ve been replaced by Robert Woods (coming off an ACL tear), Treylon Burks (failed to distinguish himself in the preseason), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (literally more “name†than “gameâ€) and Austin Hooper (a professional underwhelmer). Ugly.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Titans pass catchers are tied for No. 30 — but they should be dead last.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | TEN | NYG | 27 | -3 |
Is the Giants secondary good? No. It’s bad. This offseason they lost starters CB James Bradberry and S/CBs Logan Ryan and Jabrill Peppers.
But all five projected starters this year were on the team in 2021 and got meaningful playing time, so they at least have some continuity within the unit.
And No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson is an underappreciated player. Not only has he exhibited the ability to shadow receivers throughout his career, but unlike most perimeter corners Jackson also can line up in the slot, which will give new DC Don Martindale more flexibility with coverages.
Never has Jackson had a coverage grade lower than 65.0, and last year he outright dominated with 0.61 yards per coverage snap and 4.98 yards per target (per PFF). His career numbers put him in some elite company.
- Adoree’ Jackson: 14.6% target rate | 1.00 yards per snap | 6.83 yards per target
- Jalen Ramsey: 14.1% target rate | 1.01 yards per snap | 7.14 yards per target
- Jaire Alexander: 14.4% target rate | 1.03 yards per snap | 7.18 yards per target
If Jackson can man up either Woods or Burks on the perimeter, and if the Giants can shut down the other receiver with safety help, are Westbrook-Ikhine and Hooper going to make the Giants pay? Probably not.
Even with a subpar secondary, the Giants can probably force the Titans toward the ground game — and it’s not as if they need extra incentive to give All-Pro RB Derrick Henry the ball.
And if the Titans decide to run as often as possible, that will give offensive-minded HC Brian Daboll, OC Mike Kafka and QB Daniel Jones an opportunity to get Giants bettors the late-game cover.
Bet: Giants +6 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Giants +6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Giants +3
Limit: Giants +5
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Of the six spreads I’ve already bet, these are the five that (right now) I plan to enter into the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Rams +2.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Bears +7.5
- Browns +2.5
- Texans +8.5
Analysis
With the Bears, Browns and Texans I’m getting decent artificial closing line value (CLV), and simply prefer the Rams Patriots to the Giants.
That said — especially for Week 1, when there’s more uncertainty with teams and we’re looking at stale contest lines that were first posted weeks ago — the optimal move might simply be to go with the five overall teams that present the most value relative to the current consensus lines in the market.
The teams that currently offer value are:
- Browns: DK +2.5 vs. Consensus +1.5
- Jets: DK +7.5 vs. Consensus +7
- Jaguars: DK +3.5 vs. Consensus +2.5
- Bears: DK +7.5 vs. Consensus +7
- Texans: DK +8.5 vs. Consensus +7
- Eagles: DK -3.5 vs. Consensus -4
- Chiefs: DK -3.5 vs. Consensus -6
- Buccaneers: DK -1.5 vs. Consensus -2.5
In this expanded list, the Jaguars and Chiefs catch my eye, given that the Jaguars have moved through the key number of +3 and the Chiefs have captured 2.5 points of value.
A lot of decisions to make. Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (9/11): Here’s the tweet.
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