Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I’ve written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I’ve noticed for the upcoming week.
I’m not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
So here are some trends for Week 5 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Note: These aren’t all the trends I’m seeing and all the early bets I like. These are just a few of them. For more of my early Week 5 bets, check out the BettingPros App.
All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Oct. 2. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
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Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Check out our Titans at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: CBS
Titans at Commanders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Titans -2.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Titans -140, Commanders +122
Tennessee Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Mike Vrabel: 9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row
Titans at Commanders: Early Bet
- Best Line: Commanders +3 (-115, Bet Rivers)
- Personal Projection: Commanders +0.25
- Limit: Commanders +1.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +3.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Check out our Falcons at Buccaneers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: FOX
Falcons at Buccaneers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Buccaneers -8
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -380, Falcons +295
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends
- QB Tom Brady: 42-17 ATS (40.6% ROI) off loss
- QB Tom Brady: 48-12 ML (27.4% ROI) off loss
Falcons at Buccaneers: Early Bet
- Best Line: Buccaneers -8 (-110, FanDuel)
- Personal Projection: Buccaneers -9.75
- Limit: Buccaneers -8.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of -8.5.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Eagles at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -5.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -240, Cardinals +196
Arizona Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
Eagles at Cardinals: Early Bet
- Best Line: Cardinals +6 (-110, DraftKings)
- Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.75
- Limit: Cardinals +3.5
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +6.
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