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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks Odds & Game Pick

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Russell Wilson versus Jameis Winston is always an exciting encounter. They have not faced off since 2016 and will battle in what is arguably the marquee matchup of the late-afternoon window. Their two teams are in much different positions this season as the Seahawks are 6-2 and looking forward to a potential postseason appearance, while the Buccaneers, on the other hand, are 2-5 and scouting next year’s rookie class in anticipation of a second consecutive top-10 pick. This contest saw some early-week movement as the point spread moved from -5.5 to -6. The full two field-goal spread may change the lean for this contest. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -5.5 on Seattle. The over/under total opened at 53.5 points. The point spread has seen a slight increase to -6. The over/under total has dropped 2.5 points to 51 even. 
  • Current Line: Seattle -6
  • O/U: 51
  • Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
  • Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, Sunday, November 3rd
  • Last Meeting: Tampa Bay defeated Seattle 14-5 – November 27, 2016

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Buccaneers at Seahawks >>

Overview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at a disappointing 2-5 on the season. Jameis Winston has been mistake-prone under center but has thrown eight of his league-leading 12 interceptions in just two contests. Tampa Bay boasts impressive talent at quarterback, wide receiver, defensive tackle, defensive end, and linebacker. Unfortunately, their run game is arguably the least talented in the league. Their secondary has some promising pieces but has given up far too much yardage for the Buccaneers to remain successful. Based on their remaining schedule a .500 season seems like a stretch at this point. Tampa Bay has dropped some games they should have won and will now have to scratch and claw just to get to the six-win mark.

The Seattle Seahawks have been downright impressive this season. Russell Wilson is playing at one of the highest levels of his career and their defense has shown flashes of being dominant up front. They sit at 6-2 on the season and look destined to make a postseason appearance. The Seahawks suffer from a lack of talent in the secondary but have been explosive enough on offense to propel them to victory in the games they were expected to win. Though they have a tough remaining schedule, the Seahawks currently sit at 6-2 and could very well hit the double-digit win mark. Their two contests against the San Francisco 49ers, the first of which is next week, may very well decide the NFC West.

Trends

  • The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two teams. 
  • Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 8-2 in the last 10 contests between these two teams. 
  • Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS on the season. 
  • Tampa Bay is 2-2 ATS at home this season. 
  • Seattle is 3-5 ATS on the season. 
  • Seattle is 0-4 ATS at home this season. 
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 in their last nine contests between these two teams. 
  • Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. 
  • Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five November contests. 
  • Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five November contests. 
  • Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five home contests. 
  • Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five contests. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last four contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five contests following a straight up loss. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s last seven road contests against teams with a winning home record. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five contests following a straight up win. 
  • Over is 12-5 in Seattle’s last 17 contests. 
  • Over is 9-3 in Seattle’s last 12 contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five contests against teams with a losing home record. 

Prop Bets

Chris Carson over 75 rushing yards (-159)
Chris Carson over 75 rushing yards at PointsBet at -159 seems like one of the top player props for this contest. He has a tough task ahead of him against a tough Buccaneers defensive front allowing just 2.95 yards per carry. This number jumps to 4.28 yards per carry against running backs with elite level broken tackle percentages. Carson is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game on the season, but 100.2 yards on 22.8 carries in his last five contests. He has cleared the posted total in four of his last five contests. Facing a tough front makes this seem like a prop to fade, especially due to the fact PointsBet does not offer under on player props. However, Carson has averaged an elite 3.4 yards after contact per carry. While the Buccaneers’ impressive front seven may be quick to get hands on him, he is one of the elites in broken tackles and broken tackle percentage. 75 rushing yards on 20 carries should be an easy cover for Carson. Lock this one in before the juice goes up. 

D.K. Metcalf over 50 receiving yards (-113)
D.K. Metcalf is averaging 50.3 receiving yards per game on the season. He is facing a forgiving Buccaneers’ pass defense allowing 14.29 receptions, 183.57 receiving yards, and 1.29 touchdowns to the wide receiver position per contest. Metcalf has cleared the posted total in five of his eight contests this season and in two of his last three. Metcalf has solidified his role as the Seahawks’ number two receiver and should see enough snaps and targets to clear this total against Tampa Bay.  

Bottom Line

The Seattle Seahawks have actually scored fewer points per game than the Buccaneers on the season, however, Tampa Bay has allowed 30.3 points per game compared to just 24.5 by Seattle. The Seahawks average scoring margin of just 1.5 points suggests that Tampa Bay may be the play here. Seattle’s record against the spread at home further cements the Buccaneers as a shrewd play. With that said, a one score line still presents an opportunity on both sides. The Buccaneers are going to have a tough time stopping the Seahawks’ aerial attack, and as a result, will not be able to load up the box to stop Chris Carson. Seattle is the easy moneyline play, but the spread gets a little more complicated. One could forget about the spread and follow the trend data and punch in the over. The -5.5 line on Seattle was a much more appealing proposition. -6 still presents some value as this game is expected to be decided by four to eight points. Teasing the total makes the most sense here, but those looking for straight spread action may want to follow the early movement and lock the Seahawks in at -105 at PointsBet. 

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6 (-105)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 9

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (+4)
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+3)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+7)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.