Top 10 Odds & Picks for UFC 277 (7/30)

by BettingPros Staff |
Jul 30, 2022

Letâ€™s check out the top odds and bets for Saturdayâ€™s UFC 277.

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Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes

While I wouldnâ€™t go as far as to say Penaâ€™s win in December was a fluke, I do think there were some legit concerns coming out of the Nunes camp prior to the fight about her health; all of which are now resolved. Nunes should come out firing in this one, looking for an early finish.

Best Bet: Amanda Nunes (-265 via DraftKings)

Check out the full betting guide for Pena vs. Nunes >>

Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France

With this fight most likely taking place on the feet, Kara-France possesses a ton of value in what should essentially be a pick â€™em. I think a lot of bias is baked into the Moreno line, as he has been a crowd favorite and been in the spotlight longer than Kara-France.

But we should not look overlook Kara-Franceâ€™s advantages over Moreno. Heâ€™s a more accurate striker, utilizes his legs more efficiently, and, in my opinion, has a stronger corner behind him.

Morenoâ€™s advantage is that this will be his fourth championship fight and fifth five-round scrap in the UFC. Assuming this fight goes into the later rounds, which is a safe assumption, Kara-Franceâ€™s endurance will be tested like It never has before in this promotion.

That being said, City Kickboxing certainly has a few guys in the camp who can help with his endurance training, as Adesanya and Volkanovski have each been in numerous five-round bouts. The staff there should help with the cardio, but training is never the same as actually being in the cage with the lights on you.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Kai Kara-France to Win via Decision (+330)

Check out the full betting guide for Morena vs. Kara-France >>

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich

The only safe thing to bet on in this fight is that the scorecards will not matter. Obviously, do not lay the -650 juice.

This scrap is undoubtedly a â€œprove itâ€ opportunity for Pavlovich, and I believe he is ready. Lewis is essentially a divisional gatekeeper at this point in his career. A win for Pavlovich here could launch him into the Tuivasa/Blaydes/Aspinall grouping of the heavyweight division.

With the immense power that each of these men possesses, this fight could go either way, as It just takes one shot. Give me the younger guy with more to prove, better endurance, and riding the momentum of a three-fight win streak.

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich via 2nd Round KO

Bet: Sergei Pavlovich to Win in Rounds 1-2 (+110)

Check out the full betting guide for Lewis vs. Pavlovich >>

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith

I do not believe this was the fight to make in this division. Ankalaev is far and away the better fighter at this point in each of these guysâ€™ careers, and Ankalaev does not have a ton to gain other than more notoriety for winning this bout.

On the opposite end, a massive upset win for Smith could propel him back up the rankings, but this is one hill that may be too tall to climb. Boasting an advantage in every aspect of this fight outside of experience, Ankalaev should be able to get this done.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Magomed Ankalaev to Win via Unanimous Decision (+120)

Check out the full betting guide for Akalaev vs. Smith >>

Top 4 Prop Bets Odds & Picks for UFC 277

Julianna Pena (+220) vs. Amanda Nunes (-295)

Julianna Pena stunned the world when she submitted Amanda Nunes with a rear naked choke in December 2021. Nunes gets a well-deserved title shot right away as sheâ€™ll attempt to reclaim her second belt in the womenâ€™s side of the sport.

I expect Nunes to get it done on Saturday night and do it violently. The Lioness is averaging 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, while Penaâ€™s takedown is at just 22% in her career. Look for Nunes to work her grappling, land some takedowns, and get some healthy ground and pound action in. Iâ€™m taking Nunes by KO/TKO for plus-money in the main event.

Bet: Amanda Nunes by KO/TKO (+125 via FanDuel)

Brandon Moreno (-245) vs. Kai Kara-France (+186)

Brandon Moreno will step into the octagon for the first time since dropping a unanimous decision in the championship trilogy finale with Deiveson Figueiredo. As for second-ranked Kai Kara-France, heâ€™s riding a two-fight win streak, and the New Zealander is 4-2 over his last six fights.

One of those losses was a unanimous decision to Moreno in December 2019. The Mexican-born brawler outstruck Kara-France 91-82 over three rounds with no takedowns or knockdowns in the bout. This co-main event is scheduled for five rounds and will be for the interim title in the Flyweight Division.

Iâ€™m expecting this fight to stay vertical as Kara-France boasts an 86% takedown defense rate, and heâ€™s not very active offensively when it comes to takedowns. Both of these guys have excellent stamina and should have no issues lasting a full five rounds. I like this fight to go the distance in what will likely turn into a boxing match.

Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (-132 via FanDuel)

Derrick Lewis (+112) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-142)

Yeahâ€¦ no chance this fight goes the distance. The oddsmakers have this one at -750 to avoid going to the judges, and Iâ€™d say thatâ€™s about right. Sergei Pavlovich has seen all four of his fights end via KO/TKO inside the first round, while Derrick Lewisâ€™ last five fights ended before 15 minutes.

I canâ€™t lay the -750, so weâ€™ll have to get a little riskier and ride with the under on 1.5 rounds in this Heavyweight bout. Weâ€™re still laying a bit of juice, but Iâ€™m confident considering the recent results of each fighter. Lewis packs one of the most powerful punches in the promotion and holds the current lead with 13 career knockouts. As for Pavlovich, heâ€™s won three straight fights in the first round, courtesy of his hands. Look for the big fellas to throw the hands early and often, and someone will sleep in the first round.

Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-174 via FanDuel)

Magomed Ankalaev (-620) vs. Anthony Smith (+400)

Aside from Magomed Ankalaevâ€™s debut loss to Paul Craig back in March of 2018, heâ€™s been a perfect 8-0 in the UFC octagon. As for Anthony Smith, heâ€™s taken on more of a â€œgatekeeper roleâ€ in the Light Heavyweight Division. But Lionheartâ€™s still one of the most experienced fighters in the game and should not be taken lightly. Heâ€™s riding a three-fight win streak, with all three being inside the distance.

However, I think this is Analaevâ€™s time, and I like for the Russian to win via decision on Saturday. Smith is tough as nails, and heâ€™s a hard man to get out of the octagon. With this being an abbreviated three-round fight, I think heâ€™ll have no issue lasting the full 15 minutes. His takedown defense rate is just 48%, which could open up an opportunity for Ankalaev to score some control time while doing damage from the top. Ultimately, with Smith absorbing an average of 4.31 significant strikes per minute, I like Ankalaev to piece him up while mixing in some grappling work. Letâ€™s go with Ankalaev by points to open up the main card.

Bet: Magomed Ankalaev by Points (-105 via FanDuel)

Top Longshot Odds & Picks for UFC 277

Donâ€™Tale Mayes to Win via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+650)

In the prelims, we have a heavyweight bout between Donâ€™Tale Mayes and Hamdy Abdelwahab. Mayes is coming off back-to-back wins over Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian, while Abdelwahab will be making his UFC debut after just a few professional bouts across several different promotions.

It may take Mayes a round to figure him out as Adbelwahab has just three fights to draw from in the film room, with one of those bouts lasting just 24 seconds. Additionally, Mayes must find his range as he boasts a four-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage. This reach differential could be a massive advantage for Mayes if he utilizes his range efficiently. The only fight in his career where Mayes had such a big advantage in these areas was against Roque Martinez, a bout that he won.

Mayes opened up as a -115 betting favorite and has been pushed up to his current price of -190. Heâ€™s more experienced, possesses a large-size advantage in a fight that should be standing, and is coming off two strong wins.

I foresee this fight having a feel-out round to start and then fireworks in the second round.

Julianna Pena to Win Inside the Distance (+425)

In Saturdayâ€™s main event, Julianna Pena looks to defend her bantamweight belt against Amanda Nunes. This bout is a rematch from Decemberâ€™s title fight, a night in which Pena pulled off one of the greatest upsets in UFC history.

However, this was not a fluky win, and Pena certainly did not have just one lucky punch. Pena was the better fighter once they got past the first round of the fight, and I believe history will repeat itself once again.

That first fight could symbolize a changing of the guard in the womenâ€™s bantamweight division, which Nunes has dominated for years. However, every great fighter eventually falls, and that could have been the start for Nunes.

When a champion fighter loses in a massive upset after dominating the sport for many years, that fighter is rarely the same afterward. We have seen this play out time and again in this sport, whether It was Ronda Rouseyâ€™s loss to Holly Holm, Anderson Silvaâ€™s loss to Chris Weidman or Joanna Jedrzejczykâ€™s loss to Rose Namajunas.

After those massive upset losses, all three of those fighters would go on to lose their next fight. The only fighter to ever rebound from a loss as significant as those was Georges St-Pierre.

Pena is a legit fighter. You could see her potential when she fought Valentina Shevchenko in 2017 as an up-and-comer. Even though Pena lost that fight, she held her own. Five years later, Pena now holds the bantamweight belt and will look to verify her success with yet another finish over Nunes. If nothing else, this can be used as a hedge against our previous bets supporting Nunes.