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Top 10 Odds & Picks for UFC Fight Night London (7/23)

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Check out our top 10 odds and picks for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in London.

UFC Strategy & Advice

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Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall

Coming into this fight, I wanted to find a way to take Blaydes, given his track record in the UFC and Aspinall’s relative newness against top-tier fighters. A deeper dive, however, wouldn’t allow me to do that. Aspinall will enter the octagon on Saturday with significant edges in striking (2.04 knockdowns per 15 minutes vs. .20) and grappling (2.04 submissions per 15 minutes vs. 0).

He also comes into this fight with a 100% takedown defense and accuracy clip, the highest in the heavyweight division. With recent wins over Volkov and Spivac, Aspinall has aced every test in the UFC thus far, and I see him passing yet another Saturday at home in London.

Best Bet: Tom Aspinal (-135  via DraftKings)

Check out the full betting guide >>

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt

Opening as high as -400, we’ve seen Pimblett’s odds come back to earth quite a bit, as The Baddy is now in the -260 range, which I still think is too high. He does hold a massive edge in significant striking at 6.07 landed per minute (vs. 2.49), but he also absorbs nearly double the shots of Leavitt.

While I don’t think this fight would have been set without a clear path to victory, I do believe Leavitt gives him fits early, and this one ends via the judge’s scorecards.

Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett via Decision (+330 via DraftKings)

Check out the full betting guide >>

Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis

While Curtis’s sample size is smaller, the numbers can’t be ignored as the damage he’s done thus far is commendable. As of Saturday, Curtis is averaging 7.23 significant strikes per minute (vs. 4.95), with an accuracy clip of 65% (vs. 44%). It’s also worth noting that while Hermansson has the slight edge in grappling, Curtis has a takedown defense of 100% and does an excellent job of keeping these fights upright.

In this one, I like for the up-and-comer Curtis to get the job done in what I expect to be one of the best fights of the evening.

Best Bet: Chris Curtis (-110 via DraftKings)

Check out the full betting guide >>

Best Prop Bet Odds & Picks

Molly McCann (12-4-0) vs. Hannah Goldy (6-2-0)

One of the better women fights in recent memory, this one features the increasingly popular “Meatball” McCann and is one of her highest profile fights to date. The winner likely cracking the top five, bettors think the local McCann has the better chance, as her odds have ballooned from -200 at open to over -400 at some shots.

A closer look shows the two relatively even on paper, except for grappling, where McCann holds a significant edge in takedown average per 15 minutes at 1.79 vs. .61. Goldy does have a minor advantage in striking. Still, it’s too small to make much of a difference here.

I expect a ground and pound fight that McCann edges out in the end.

Bet: Molly McCann to Win by Points (-130)

Nikita Krylov (27-9-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0)

This light heavyweight bout can be one of the best of the night, as Krylov sits just outside the top 10 and gets a fighter in Gustafsson, who, while a legend, hasn’t fought in over two years. I don’t just give Krylov the edge in the metrics, but 88% of these two’s professional fights have ended inside of the distance.

Expect a similar result here.

Bet: Nikita Krylov to Win By KO, TKO, DQ/Submission (+130)

Curtis Blaydes (16-3-0) vs. Tom Aspinall (12-2-0)

This will likely be an even more popular bet as fight night approaches, but I think we see Aspinall get this one done inside the distance. Of his eight straight past wins, seven have ended in the very first round, with the other ending in the second. In fact, in Aspinall’s entire MMA career, he’s yet to have a fight go past the second round.

As for Blaydes, the more experienced fighter will undoubtedly be looking to take this one into the late rounds, but he’s outmatched on the ground in spades by a fighter in Aspinall who averages 2.04 submissions per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 100%.

Look for a slower than usual start from Aspinall with so much on the line, but for him to find his spots within two rounds and end this one well before the fifth and final bell.

Bet: Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO or Submission (+120)

Best Longshot Odds & Picks

Mandy Bohm to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+1200)

In the second fight of the prelims, we have a women’s flyweight bout between Mandy Bohm and Victoria Leonardo. I have this fight going either way, but if Bohm is to win, then It is a very good chance that she does so via KO.

Bohm has serious knockout power that has not been showcased yet in the UFC as she is 0-1 since switching over to this promotion with her loss via decision to Ariane Lipski. Prior to joining the UFC, Bohm spent the majority of her early career in the German MMA Championship.

In that promotion, Bohm went 5-0 with two knockouts. Facing Leonardo, this is a great matchup to bet on Bohm to showcase that power as she will absolutely want to keep the fight on its feet.

Compared to Leonardo, Bohm boasts a two-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage. Combined with her power, this disparity will force Leonardo to try to bring this fight to the mat.

If that is indeed the case, then I think this matchup will favor Bohm as she boasts a 100% takedown defense. In comparison, Leonardo’s takedown accuracy is a mere 27%.

Leonardo’s chin is definitely a cause for concern for her corner as each of her two losses in the UFC were via KO. Her only win in this promotion was in Dana White’s Contender Series, and prior to that, she had lost two of her last three fights in the Invicta FC promotion with one of those losses coming via knockout.

This scrap will be close, but if Bohm is successful in keeping It standing, then her reach could cause serious problems for Leonardo.

Claudio Silva ML (+210)

While calling this a longshot is a stretch, It is still a nice payout at plus money and possesses the next longest odds on my card. This welterweight bout is the first fight on the entire card as Claudio Silva will face off against Nicolas Dalby.

If you want to be a little riskier, then you could take Silva to win via submission or via decision as I believe his path to victory will be with his grappling. That being said, I am just sticking with the moneyline as I am not confident in whether he will actively go for sub attempts or rather just rack up points by controlling position on the mat and lasting to the final bell.

Additionally, Dalby has never been finished inside the distance since joining the UFC. However, especially in a fight that will most likely spend a good amount of time on the mat, a submission is always possible.

Silva continues to be undervalued as he is 3-1 as an underdog while Dalby is just 1-2-1 as a favorite. I believe we are getting an inflated number on Silva due to the fact that he has lost each of his last two fights, however, his resume is still much more impressive than Dalby’s.

Prior to taking his three-year hiatus from the sport as he dealt with nagging injuries, Silva was attempting to make a run in this division as he defeated Leon Edwards in his welterweight debut. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricardo Vieira, Silva’s grappling could be too much for Dalby.

We have seen this in all of Dalby’s losses, as grappling was the main reason he lost to Tim Means, Jesse Ronson, Peter Sobotta, and Zak Cummings. While that Ronson loss got overturned due to his opponent testing positive for PEDs, It does not eliminate the fact that Dalby tapped in round one.

I believe Silva’s corner is stronger in this matchup, and along with the fact that Dalby struggles against grapplers, this price looks too long to pass up. For what It is worth (probably not a whole lot), Silva is 3-0 when fighting in England.

Other UFC plays from this card:

  • Volkan Oezdemir to Win Inside the Distance (+120)
  • Nikita Krylov to Win Inside the Distance (+115)

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