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Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/23)

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The Texas Rangers continued the trend of the road teams winning each of the first six games of the ALCS. The Rangers forced a Game 7 against the Houston Astros tonight for the right to go to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies are one win against the Arizona Diamondbacks away from making it two consecutive World Series appearances. They head home to Citizens Bank Park, where they have been so dominant this year, for tonight’s NLCS Game 6 against Arizona.

For the last time this season, more than one MLB game will be played on the same day, so let’s soak it in and enjoy the action. Will the Phillies win the pennant for a second consecutive season, or will the Diamondbacks force a winner-take-all Game 7 on Tuesday? Will the home team finally win a game in the ALCS?

Read on for Monday’s MLB Best Bets for NLCS Game 6 and ALCS Game 7.

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Arizona Diamondbacks (+154) at Philadelphia Phillies (-184) | O/U 8 (-106/-114) 

    Phillies righty Aaron Nola pitched to a career-worst HR/9 rate (1.5) and career-low K/9 rate (9.4) in the regular season this year. It had many questioning his value in free agency this off-season, despite finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting last year. However, the way he has pitched this postseason suggests he has some good years left in the tank.

    In three postseason starts, Nola has recorded 19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings, with just two earned runs and two walks allowed. His 0.96 ERA in those starts is a big reason that the Phillies rotation has collectively pitched to a 1.48 ERA, which is the lowest by any team’s starters through the first 11 games of a postseason, as MLB.com’s Sarah Langs explained.

    Despite a down year by Nola’s standards, he still has the fourth-highest collective WAR (per FanGraphs) over the last three seasons, even better than this year’s likely-winner of the AL Cy Young Award Gerrit Cole. Nola has also been lights out in Philadelphia’s last four series-clinching games over the previous two seasons, allowing just one earned run in 27 combined innings.

    Philadelphia has hit 10 home runs in the NLCS, but its power was somewhat suppressed in the pitcher-friendly Chase Field over the last three games. However, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto all homered in Game 5, and they should carry that momentum back home, where the Phillies have combined for 17 home runs in six postseason home games. Realmuto’s home run was Philadelphia’s only one of the series with runners on base, so the Phillies should blow Game 6 open with more success power-wise with runners on base.

    On the other side, Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly ranks much worse in Stuff+ (87) and Pitching+ (103) than Nola (101 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+). In addition, Kelly entered Game 2 allowing a .795 OPS to current Phillies hitters, and the deep lineup tagged him for four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Additionally, Kelly’s troubling walk rate manifested yet again, with three walks in that first road start, and his walk rate has been up from 7.6% to 9.4% this season.

    The Phillies are 6-0 at Citizens Bank Park in the playoffs this year and have out-scored opponents 39-6 in that span. With the same starting pitching matchup as in Game 2, Philadelphia bludgeoned Arizona for a 10-0 victory, so we are maximizing our value with an alternate run line play instead of backing the Phillies’ moneyline or traditional -1.5 run line odds. The Diamondbacks may be the second-best team in MLB against the run line after a loss since last season (96-68, 9.0% ROI), per Inside Edge, but Philadelphia’s home dominance (12-1 in its previous 13 home games) trumps that trend.

    Pick: Phillies -2.5 Alternate Run line (+176)

    Texas Rangers (+108) at Houston Astros (-126) | O/U 9.5 (-104/-118)

    We do not advise blindly following trends, as often the historical context for those trends are so different when analyzed under the current context. However, plenty of bettors will be backing the Astros tonight based on the fact that they are home and have more experience despite them going 0-3 at home in this series. But as Sarah Langs revealed, true home teams are actually under .500 (62-63) in winner-take-all postseason games, and Rangers manager Bruce Bochy is 5-0 in win-or-go-home postseason games in his career. 

    The Rangers are somewhat disadvantaged as their top two starters, Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi, are unavailable tonight. That cannot be understated, as the rest of the Rangers rotation has made three starts this postseason and posted an 0-1 record and 9.72 ERA. That includes Max Scherzer, who was lit up for five earned runs over four innings in Game 3, his first start in over a month. However, he still pitched to a .205 xBA and 3.28 xERA in the regular season, and we expect him to keep his team in the game. On the other side, they’ll face Cristian Javier, a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and slider) that the Rangers should hit better against seeing him for the second time in the series.

    Underdogs have won the last 10 games between the Rangers and Astros, and that is the trend we are backing, as we expect Texas to advance to its first World Series since 2011.

    Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+108)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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