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UFC 277 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France (2022)

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UFC 277 is set to get underway this Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. This card is stacked with two titles on the line, with Amanda Nunes looking to recapture gold in her rematch against Julianna Pena for the women’s bantamweight belt while Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France battle It out for the interim flyweight title.

Current champion Deiveson Figueiredo is currently nursing injuries to both hands and threatening to leave the flyweight division due to his pay. Therefore, the top two ranked contenders of the flyweight division will scrap in a five-round bout to crown a new champion.

Brandon Moreno opened up as a -215 favorite and has since been bet down to -210. Sharp money has been coming in on Kara-France as his line has shortened despite 58% of the tickets and 61% of the money coming in on Moreno.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this flyweight championship fight.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Betting Profile: Brandon Moreno (19-6-2 Overall / 7-3-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-D-W-L)

Coming off three straight fights against Figueiredo, Moreno will be fighting someone else for the first time since November 2020. However, this opponent is certainly not new to Moreno, as these two squared off at UFC 245 in a three-round bout that went the distance and saw Moreno’s hand raised via unanimous decision.

Like most of the fights that these two are involved in, it was a wildly entertaining back-and-forth affair where both fighters were standing and striking for 15 minutes. While most watching the fight would agree that it was most likely 19-19 after the first two rounds, Moreno came out firing in the third round and did enough to seal the win in a very close fight.

Now the betting favorite in their rematch, Moreno was an underdog in that fight. When priced as the underdog in his career, Moreno has more often than not defied the odds.

However, it has been a different story when Moreno is the favorite, as he is just 2-3 in the UFC when priced as such. We will likely be in store for a great bout in a rematch against a guy who is much better than he was when they first fought.

Moreno possesses a three-inch height and one-inch reach advantage in a fight that will most likely be standing for its entirety. That being said, Moreno’s striking stats are worse than Kara-France’s (39% striking accuracy, 57% striking defense, and 3.54 strikes landed per minute compared to 40%/65%/4.84).

Possessing a chin of steel, Moreno has never been finished in the UFC, with eight of 12 fights (75%) in the promotion going the distance. This title fight will be Moreno’s first under coach James Krause and the Glory MMA & Fitness camp out of Kansas City, which is a step up from his previous corner.

Betting Profile: Kai Kara-France (24-9 Overall / 7-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)

Kai Kara-France enters this scrap amidst a three-fight win streak, including two very impressive wins over Askar Askarov and Cody Garbrandt. Despite this bout being a rematch, Moreno has improved since then, and this will be Kara-France’s most demanding test since arriving in the UFC.

However, I believe he will be up for the task. Training out of City Kickboxing, Kara-France works with two of the top fighters in the world: Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.

Throwing in a couple more good fighters like Carlos Ulberg, Brad Riddell, and Dan Hooker, City Kickboxing is establishing itself as one of the best fight camps in the world. I believe Kara-France’s corner will be stronger than Moreno’s, especially in a fight that will most likely be standing, which could be a difference in a fight that will be as close as this one.

While Kara-France is rightfully priced as the underdog, the price feels too long for a fight that should be a coin flip. As an underdog in the UFC, Kara-France is 2-0.

Like Moreno, Kara-France possesses an iron chin as he has never been knocked out and has seen six of his nine fights in this promotion go to the scorecards (67%). With Kara-France’s takedown defense of 86%, Moreno probably would struggle to bring this to the mat even if that would be their gameplan.

Bottom Line

With this fight most likely taking place on the feet, Kara-France possesses a ton of value in what should essentially be a pick ’em. I think a lot of bias is baked into the Moreno line, as he has been a crowd favorite and been in the spotlight longer than Kara-France.

But we should not look overlook Kara-France’s advantages over Moreno. He’s a more accurate striker, utilizes his legs more efficiently, and, in my opinion, has a stronger corner behind him.

Moreno’s advantage is that this will be his fourth championship fight and fifth five-round scrap in the UFC. Assuming this fight goes into the later rounds, which is a safe assumption, Kara-France’s endurance will be tested like It never has before in this promotion.

That being said, City Kickboxing certainly has a few guys in the camp who can help with his endurance training, as Adesanya and Volkanovski have each been in numerous five-round bouts. The staff there should help with the cardio, but training is never the same as actually being in the cage with the lights on you.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Kai Kara-France to Win via Decision (+330)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.