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UFC 277 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith (2022)

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UFC 277 is set to get underway this Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. This card is stacked with two titles on the line, with Amanda Nunes looking to recapture gold in her rematch against Julianna Pena for the women’s bantamweight belt while Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France battle It out for the interim flyweight title.

Opening up the main card is a lightweight bout between veteran mainstay Anthony Smith and the dominant Magomed Ankalaev. Despite Smith’s lengthy resume, Ankalaev opened as a massive -425 betting favorite and has since moved to -540 with 81% of the tickets and 85% of the handle on the Russian star.

While this line is at the point where it is disrespectful to someone of Smith’s caliber, it is not unwarranted as Ankalaev could very well be the future of the light heavyweight division alongside Jiri Prochazka.

Below, I walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this light heavyweight bout.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Betting Profile: Magomed Ankalaev (17-1 Overall / 8-1 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)

Ankalaev looks to continue his massive tear through this division as he is going for his ninth straight win. Each of his last three fights ended with his hand raised via unanimous decision, a trend I expect to continue in this fight.

Listed as a massive favorite once again, Ankalaev is 8-1 as the betting favorite. Realistically, Ankalaev should be 18-0 overall and 9-0 in the UFC as he lost his debut to Paul Craig via a last-second choke as time expired, completing one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the sport.

On his way to winning the fight by a likely 30-27 unanimous decision, Ankalaev’s perfected record would still be intact if his hand refused to tap for just one more second. However, this game has no excuses, and that is part of what makes It so great.

Giving him more fuel than he had before that loss, Ankalaev has taken out his frustration on the rest of this division on his way to the top. If he wins this fight as well, Ankalaev will have cemented himself into this division’s Jiri/Glover/Jan grouping and likely a future title shot.

Regardless of the style in which this fight goes, Ankalaev possesses a statistical advantage over Smith in every single category. Entering this fight, Ankalaev boasts more strikes landed per minute, higher striking accuracy, striking defense, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense.

Betting Profile: Anthony Smith (36-16 Overall / 13-8 UFC)

Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)

Smith enters this fight with three wins in a row as he continues his effort to get back on track in the light heavyweight division. However, those three wins are over the likes of Ryan Spann, Jimmy Crute, and Devin Clark.

No offense to any of those fighters (who are each very good in their own right), but they are not even close to the level that Ankalaev is currently at. When Smith wins, It is inside the distance via knockout or submission.

However, Ankalaev is not a fighter that is easily finished, which is evidenced by his nearly spotless track record outside of the Paul Craig hail mary. In my eyes, It would take something of that level to finish Ankalaev in this fight.

Over his last three fights that have gone to the scorecards, Smith has lost all three. With the statistical disparity between these two fighters, I do not see an avenue where Smith can win this fight.

Bottom Line

I do not believe this was the fight to make in this division. Ankalaev is far and away the better fighter at this point in each of these guys’ careers, and Ankalaev does not have a ton to gain other than more notoriety for winning this bout.

On the opposite end, a massive upset win for Smith could propel him back up the rankings, but this is one hill that may be too tall to climb. Boasting an advantage in every aspect of this fight outside of experience, Ankalaev should be able to get this done.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev to Win via Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Magomed Ankalaev to Win via Unanimous Decision (+120)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.