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UFC Fight Night: Best Longshot Odds & Picks (7/16)

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UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez is set to get underway this Saturday at UBS Arena on Long Island in New York. We are in store for a great night of fighting with a card that features some up-and-comers and some title contenders on the UFC roster, headlined by a title-shot stake between featherweights Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card.

These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

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Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Da-Un Jung to Win via Submission (+1100)

This prelim light heavyweight bout is between Dustin Jacoby and Da-Un Jung. Jung opened up as a short underdog before being bet up to the favorite as he currently sits around -130 on the moneyline.

Both of these guys enter this bout in good form as neither has lost in their last five fights (each has one draw). Jung is not afraid to go to the mat, which we saw two fights ago when he beat William Knight via unanimous decision.

In that bout, Jung was relentless as he registered eight takedowns on nine attempts and finished the fight with a commanding 12 minutes and four seconds of control time. While Jung did not go for a sub attempt, It is more so due to the fact that he did not have to as he was utterly dominating Knight with his positioning and ground strikes.

If Jung goes with the same gameplan against Jacoby, this value is too good to pass up as Jacoby has lost via submission in the past. Additionally, I think this will in fact be Jung’s gameplan as Jacoby has struggled with his takedown defense as he sits around 58%.

We saw this transpire in Jacoby’s draw against Ion Cutelaba, a fight in which Cutelaba recorded nine takedowns. Jacoby’s one loss was via guillotine choke. which is the same way that Jung recorded his submission victory over Khadis Ibragimov.

Jung is currently nursing a 14 professional fight win streak (outside of his draw) as his name is starting to heat up in the light heavyweight conversation. I believe his gameplan will be to bring this fight to the mat, which gives us a decent shot at this prop.

Punahele Soriano to Win via Submission (+900)

We are taking another submission prop in the featured prelim middleweight bout between Punahele Soriano and Dalcha Lungiambula. Soriano opened up as a pretty decent-sized favorite around the -240 mark and has since been bet up to -260.

Both fighters are coming off of two straight losses as each will look to get back on track. I believe Soriano’s gameplan will be to bring this fight to the mat, which gives us a shot at this prop.

Lungiambula possesses a four-inch reach advantage, which may prompt Soriano to focus on takedowns. We saw this exact same scenario play out in Soriano’s debut bout on Dana White’s Contender Series against Jamie Pickett.

In that scrap, Pickett possessed a large reach advantage which forced Soriano to shoot for takedowns. Soriano fights out of Xtreme Couture, which features a few coaches who are well versed in training fights for takedowns.

Prior to that DWCS bout, Soriano has two professional wins via rear naked choke, which is one of the two ways Lungiambula has been submitted in his professional career (the other being a guillotine in his last fight against Cody Brundage). If Soriano does bring this fight to the mat, this prop will have a shot.

Other UFC plays from this card:

  • Emily Ducote to Win via Submission (+650)
  • Dustin Stoltzfus to Win via Decision (+400)
  • Brian Ortega to Win via Submission (+210) – 1.5 units

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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