We have settled into the WNBA season, where teams are showing their identity as the storylines shape and the excitement plays out. There are four games on today’s slate with a lot to consider for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup. The highlight is Lynx-Aces to finish the night, but the Wings-Fire game should also be a treat. Beyond that, the Fever visit the Sun, and the Mercury host the Sparks. We had another 2-0 outing last time out and are well into the green. I'll be here once a week to provide the best WNBA picks for the Saturday slate. Let's get to it.
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Saturday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-0 | Season: 7-3
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces
Starting off with the highlight of the night, the Las Vegas Aces host the Minnesota Lynx at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The Aces sit as small favorites with a 173.5 point total. You can find this game on CBS. Not to spoil anything, but the wrong team is favored.
After "fumbling" out of the gate, the Lynx have won eight straight games. In that stretch, they've had the best offense and defense by a wide margin. The difference between their first-place 91.9 defensive rating and the Liberty’s 101.1 second-place rating is the same as the difference between the Liberty and the Tempo at 15. That is how good the Lynx have been.
In that same time frame, the Aces’ offense has been solid, but their defense has ranked 10th in the league. I don't think they can keep up with the Lynx’s defense and, surprisingly, the Aces’ offense has actually been worse at home this year. Minnesota has been winning in dominating fashion, and I think this one will be close. I still am happy taking the underdog straight up here.
Pick: Lynx Moneyline (+135 at BetMGM)
Dallas Wings vs. Portland Fire
After Dallas dominated the Mercury by 15 points, they travel to Portland to take on the Fire. Dallas sits as 5.5-point favorites with the total around 170.5 points.
This comes down to Dallas' defense controlling the game. They've had a solid defense and rank third-best over their last five games. Specifically, they've limited the perimeter with opponents taking the second-fewest attempts from deep in the league. This will likely be a problem for the home team, as the Fire get 40% of their points from beyond the arc.
It's also not like the Portland offense has been electric, ranking 10th in the league and ninth at home. Dallas' road defense does take a step back on the road, but it won't be big enough to allow Portland to play its game. I'm fading Portland from scoring in this one.
Pick: Fire Team Total Under 82.5 points (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun
Despite the Sun hosting the Fever, they are double-digit underdogs in this one, with a total around 171.5 points.
I don't want to bury the lede; I think the Fever dominates. Sophie Cunningham and Caitlin Clark are battling injuries, but both are listed as probable, so I'm assuming they will play. Considering that, I simply don't see how the Sun keeps up.
The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league, so they are capable of blowing teams out of the water. The Sun's home offense ranks second-worst in the league, where they struggle from deep, with the Fever allowing the fewest looks from deep in the league. The Fever’s offense on paper hasn't been amazing, but I trust they can handle business today.
Pick: Indiana Fever -9.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
