Were headed for the sacred ground this week in Scotland for the PGA Tour’s official tune-up event for The Open. Links golf is a complete departure from the tree-lined doglegging we’ve seen in recent weeks stateside. The mission is the same. Try to hole out in fewer strokes than the rest. The wind-whipped dunes, strewn with fescue and pocked with pot bunkers, are where my ancestors played in kilts and boots.
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2023 Scottish Open Bets: PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Scottish Open is much more than an attempt to right the ship before the season’s final major. It has been held at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland since 2019. The par-70 track stretches to around 7,200 yards, near the average among courses on the PGA Tour. The degree of difficulty here depends entirely on the wind, with incredible disparity. Xander Schauffele prevailed over Kurt Kitayama last year at seven-under par, a full 11 strokes worse than 2021 champion Min Woo Lee.
Bombers do very well here, especially if their wedge game is on point. Another desirable trait is the ability to avoid bogeys and three-putts, especially. My weighted statistical model will also consider par-4 scoring and scrambling metrics. With the smoky smell of burning peat moss in the sea air, let’s tee off.
Scottie Scheffler
The best player in the world hasn’t won recently, thanks to a balky putter. He is also in the midst of one of the most torrid streaks of success in golf history. Good luck hanging with Scottie this week. If he keeps barking up the leaderboard every single week, he’s bound to win one going away.
Pick: Outright +650 [2u]; Top-5 +150 [1u]
Tyrrell Hatton
I love Hatton’s ability to score in difficult conditions. The Englishman has all the firepower to win here, especially if the wind freshens to more than a breeze. His whole bag is solid, with the only missing piece to more wins is the ability to buckle down under pressure and finish the job on Sunday.
Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +210 [1u]
Rickie Fowler
Now that Rickie has rid himself of the gorilla on his back, his game fits this event swimmingly. Fowler can shape the ball either direction and is excellent at using different trajectories as needed. His short game and putting have been marvelous this season, so these odds are simply too short.
Pick: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-10 +210 [1u]
Wyndham Clark
The books have not yet noticed that old Wynd Bag is among the best golfers in the world now. Clark’s all-around golf talent is incredible, pairing nicely with his newfound grasp of the mental element that has helped him break out this season. He checks all the boxes this week and comes in with much softer lines than I expected.
Pick: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [0.5u]
Alex Smalley
One of the more surprising success stories this season has been Alex Smalley. The 26-year-old from Rochester, New York might have earned his first PGA Tour victory at last week’s John Deere Classic if not for Sepp Straka’s Sunday 62. In any case, it was Smalley’s fourth top-10 finish this season. He rates out as the 10th-best in this field in proximity on approach, which is a very important metric this week. In fact, there weren’t any key stats where Smalley was worse than 50th in the field this season.
Pick: Outright +7000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +250 [0.5u]
Kevin Yu
The youth movement on Tour has produced an exciting emergence of incredible ball-strikers. Although Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young come to mind right away, Kevin Yu gives both of them a run for their money in sheer Shot Tracer Swag. Yu is only 24 years old and is already among the most statistically-sound players in the world. His one weakness, putting, has even shown marked improvement in recent weeks. Where many will be betting Min Woo Lee at shorter odds this week after his win here two years ago, I’d rather take a shot on a very similar player with more to prove.
Pick: Outright +20000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +550 [0.5u]
