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2023 U.S. Open Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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One does not need to be old to be a traditionalist. When you grow up in a little hick town in Northern California, old school is the only school. Wake up with the rooster, fall asleep to the frogs and crickets. The line between family and neighbors was as ambiguous as the reason why a town of 6,800 people needed 28 churches. Sunday belonged to whichever higher power we believed in. On Easter, it was for Jesus. Football ruled when the autumn chill changed the color of orchard leaves. On Father’s Day at the end of spring, we prayed the U.S. Open was here in the Golden State.

We have arrived. U.S. Open week carries a little extra special connotation now that I am a father myself. My dad and I both relished the final round Sunday more than the Hallmark holiday where he’d get tools to rust and gather dust in the shed. On Sunday, we wore red like Tiger. Chilling like the Big Easy (my dad’s favorite) with sweet tea and buttered microwave popcorn on his sticky leather couch, we’d roar with those crowds.

“Bring on the summer!” he’d say. I was 13 when Tiger romped through Pebble Beach by 15 shots, only a few months after we walked those same grounds for the Pro-Am. Nothing beats major championship golf at a California golf course. This week, I’ll put my dad on speakerphone and talk about Los Angeles Country Club (LACC). For a man of few words, I’m sure he will have plenty of things to say excitedly on that call.

A course like LACC is perfect for the U.S. Open. The USGA was given a blank canvas to shape the property in its own image for the championship. What it came up with is a daunting riddle of a golf course laden with treacherous opportunities for carnage. There will also be triumphant moments where the best golfers in the world will stare down the improbable and create the stuff of memories.

Check Out Our 2023 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions >>

2023 U.S. Open Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Everything about LACC is noteworthy. From the par-70 layout on a macro view, it’s easy to envision the winner needing a creative and whimsical approach to his rounds. Two par-3 holes require a fairway metal (or even driver) to reach, while one will force the players to hit a three-quarter wedge into a thimble-sized landing area on trembling knees. The pressure is palpable; adrenaline is jacked to the max.

My weighted statistical model will once again focus on strokes gained from tee to green (SG: T2G), but I’m extra keen on a golfer’s ability to thrive in survival mode. Scrambling and bogey avoidance will be my weightiest stats. Putting is paramount. Approach proximity will be a dichotic mix of long iron (200-plus yards) and wedges (125 yards and in). The fairways are the widest in U.S. Open history, but the rough is every bit as nasty as we have grown accustomed to from the USGA in recent years. Players who excel around the green and with the flat stick will be preferred. Let’s tee off.

Brooks Koepka (Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +260 [1u])

If we’re talking about a major championship, and Brooks Koepka is in the field, it would be foolish not to take a stab at him. This is especially true with a double-digit payout. Among the betting favorites, Koepka is the only one riding a hot putter at the moment and has a long history of finishing the job down the stretch. Don’t overthink it.

Xander Schauffele (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +180 [1u])

The U.S. Open is a grind. Finishing 72 holes in this pressure cooker would be impressive enough for an amateur golfer, but we want the guys who come out of it smiling. Xander Schauffele is talented enough to score with favorable conditions, but well-rounded and cool enough to keep a steady scorecard when it hits the fan. I am especially fond of Xander’s short approach game and scrambling. He is among the best putters in the world and comes into the week fourth in total strokes gained. It will be very tough to keep Schauffele out of the top-10, with a very strong chance he pushes for the trophy on Sunday.

Cameron Smith (Outright +3000 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u])

If golf was only played with a wedge and putter, it would be impossible to beat Cameron Smith. He is lethal from 150 yards and in from the hole. We get the nice LIV Tour discount from the books again, despite the mulleted Aussie still hovering around the top-10 in the world rankings. His game is perfectly suited for LACC, making him my first instinct favorite leading into the week.

Jordan Spieth (Outright +3000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +210 [1u])

Scrambling and short game, you say? Bah gawd, that’s Jordan Spieth’s music! Add in the wider fairways to accommodate the 2015 U.S. Open champion’s erratic driving, and you have a recipe for more commiseration with Michael Greller this week. Spieth is maddeningly neurotic. He is also the type of golfer who wouldn’t surprise a soul with a win this week. There isn’t another golfer in the world I’d trust more to save par from the abyss than Spieth and most of LACC provides that dramatic degree of difficulty.

Dustin Johnson (Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [1u])

Similar to Koepka and Smith, the books aren’t getting a lot of action on the LIV defectors like Dustin Johnson. It would be stunning to see one of the best golfers on the planet with multiple major wins like DJ at 35-1 if he was still on the PGA Tour. The 2016 U.S. Open champion is still that dude. The underrated part of DJ’s game has always been his touch around the greens. He has also made a career out of catching a hot putter in the clutch to go with his prodigious length off the tee. Real talk: DJ at 35-1 is insane.

Adam Scott (Outright +7000 [0.25u]; Top-10 +550 [0.5u])

Adam Scott has been one of the best golfers for 22 years running. The Aussie has enjoyed immense success in his career, with few bumps in the road. The latest travails were with his putting, but Scott has amazingly turned that around too. He enters the week 38th in Strokes Gained: Putting, a massive improvement over recent years. Scott also has a long history of success on California golf courses and his sweet swing hasn’t faded one bit. Scott is plenty weathered to make a push at LACC this week.

Kurt Kitayama (Outright +18000 [0.25u]; Top-10 +1200 [0.5u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u])

Homerism aside, LACC is going to test every golfer’s mettle this week. Kurt Kitayama is intimately familiar with California courses and succeeding in pressure-packed, challenging environments. Kitayama also excels at the key metrics I’m looking at this week. He is one of the world’s best on approaches of more than 200 yards, as well as razor-sharp with a wedge. His weakness has been driving accuracy, but the ample fairways will help in that regard. The 20th-ranked player in the world should never be 180-1 at any tournament, so invest accordingly. Kitayama is a hot putter away from providing us with another massive payday.

Total Units Played: 11.0

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