It’s fitting, really. I had my best career NASCAR betting performance last week in the season’s penultimate event, which was filled with controversy.
On that note, there’s way too much money bet on motorsports today for race manipulation to be happening. It doesn’t matter whether it’s team or manufacturer orders. That’s bush league and what turned many racing fans - myself included - away from Formula 1.
Still, we capitalized on Ryan Blaney having one of the drives of his life to lock himself into the Championship 4. He’s joined by his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano, 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) William Byron.
Just like last year when Ross Chastain became the first driver to win the championship race despite being eliminated from the playoffs, others will be looking to play spoiler. Most notable is Christopher Bell, who lost his chance to compete for the title after NASCAR deemed his last-lap wall ride a safety violation.
I’m holding the following championship future tickets coming into Phoenix: Ryan Blaney (+1200 Cup Series ), Tyler Reddick (+1500 Cup Series), Cole Custer (+350 Xfinity Series) and Grant Enfinger (+1800 Truck Series). Therefore, I’ll keep my card limited in the final weekend.
Let’s soak in perhaps the wildest season of stock car racing ever one last time with our best bets for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and full card for Phoenix Raceway.
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship: NASCAR at Phoenix Odds, Picks & Predictions
Big Chill NASCARxCFB Parlay of the Week
Our still unsponsored Big Chill NASCARxCFB Parlay of the Week returns and has been *knock-on-wood* undefeated so far this season. Regardless of what you parlay it with, the best value across the board is Christopher Bell’s T10 line, specifically at Bet365 for -350. The next best price available is -500, and it’s going for -650 at some shops.
It’s understandable when you consider Bell’s pedigree on this track style. He is No. 1 in the shorter-flat track total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, and has an average finish of 4.8 at those tracks this season, finishing no worse than P7.
That includes a win at Phoenix earlier this season on a day when he was fourth in average running position (7.8), first in driver rating (125.1) and third in the total speed rankings. Bell has now scored three T10s in four Next-Gen races at Phoenix. The outliers were a P26 in March 2022 - one of the first races in the new car - and last year’s championship race, when his rotors gave out 108 laps into the race.
Between that and NASCAR’s call last week, Bell will be bound and determined to show up on Sunday. As long as he and Kirby Smart’s second-ranked Georgia Bulldogs take care of business, we’ll be big chilling come Sunday night.
Parlay Odds: +120 via Bet365 | 3u
Weekender Parlay of the Week
When the smoke clears, and it’s a quiet track, I think we have back-to-back champions in both the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series. Ryan Blaney is a man on a mission and took the same path of getting back into the Championship 4 as last year - winning his way in at Martinsville.
He now returns to arguably his second-best track, Phoenix, where he has a 3.0 average finish in the Next-Gen era and is No. 1 in the Phoenix Next-Gen total speed rankings. In the spring race specifically, Blaney extended his perfect T5 streak in this new car when he was sixth in driver rating (103.7), ran 96.8% of laps inside the top 15 (third-most) and had a 9.2 average running position (sixth-best).
The Ohio native is also No. 2 in the shorter-flat total speed rankings and was a weapon at the comps this season. Two weeks after running out of gas unexpectedly on the last lap at Gateway, he won the inaugural Cup Series Iowa race. He was also second in the total speed rankings and a threat to win at New Hampshire before getting spun late by Michael McDowell.
He should spend most of the day near the front on Sunday, so I feel confident in a T5 ticket. To get some of the juice off and make this an all-weekend affair, I’ll parlay it with defending Xfinity Series champion Cole Custer’s T5 ticket for Saturday’s race.
In addition to winning this race last year, the Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) driver has led an average of 65 laps over his last three races in the desert, helping him finish T5 in the spring. In that race specifically, Custer was third in speed by segment and had an average running position of 3.1. He also finished third at the closest comp track, New Hampshire.
Here’s to history repeating itself this weekend!
Parlay Odds: +120 via DraftKings Sportsbook | 5u
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Ryan Blaney Outright (+400 via FanDuel) | 1.5u
Joey Logano Outright (+750 via FanDuel) | .5u
Other NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Bets:
Connor Zilisch (-115 via Bet365) vs. Brandon Jones | 1.5u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.