After a relatively uneventful opening weekend of March Madness, we are back with more action as we get into the Sweet 16. A lack of upsets is never fun, but it means more exciting action for the later tournament rounds.
Tonight offers some of the most exciting matchups we could have asked for. Maryland bodes well as a challenge to the Florida goliath. BYU and Alabama will be great for ratings with the amount of offense expected, and we get Caleb Love rematching against Duke. What more could we ask for? In this article, I will share my favorite player prop bets for the opening day of Sweet 16 action.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mark Sears Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's easy leaning on overs in a game with a monstrously-high 175.5 total, but I expect the Crimson Tide's star player to be a big part of the offense. BYU's defense is centered around pure rim denial with the 14th-lowest rim rates allowed, per Synergy. Opponents score nearly 40% of their points from the perimeter - 11th-highest in the nation. Considering Alabama has seen this drop coverage before, and destroyed it, I'm not sure it's a favorable matchup for BYU defensively.
In short, Mark Sears is going to get plenty of open perimeter looks. Even with just an average shooting night, he can clear 20 points with ease. On the drive and kicks, I expect a handful of assists to come his way as well. Given how fast Alabama plays, this forces others to catch up. I'm finding any way to bet overs. Sure, you can always play the overinflated ball narrative, but these teams have had the time to practice in the arena and prepare for this game. Don't be surprised by a 91-88 final score with Sears not even blinking before dropping 26.
Henri Veesaar Under 8.5 Points (-125 at bet365)
This line is at 6.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, so once again, I want to emphasize shopping around for the best odds when it comes to the more niche markets like down-ballot player props. Henri Veesar has come off the bench in both tournament games for Arizona while playing under 21 minutes in each match without reaching nine points. Now facing Duke, the second-best interior defense in Division I (DI) hoops, I can't imagine he will do much better.
The Blue Devils are expected to double Veesaar in the post and limit his looks altogether. The 7-foot-0 Arizona center has depended on second-chance looks to score, which Duke will eliminate. This is assuming he gets back to higher playing time, too, but it seems like Tommy Lloyd is changing things up a bit. If Veesaar gets in foul trouble, that is an easy cue to send him right back to the bench. The limited time on the court for potential scoring opportunities against one of the best defenses in the league makes this an easy under bet.
Christian Anderson Over 10.5 Points (+105 at bet365)
The Red Raiders’ sharpshooter has gone cold this tournament, going a combined 2-of-14 from deep in his two games. The notable number there is the 14 attempts. Despite missing shots, he still is attempting them at a high clip. With Chance McMillian possibly sidelined (he’s a game-time decision), Christian Anderson is going to get more of a run against Arkansas.
The Razorbacks allow catch-and-shoot threes at a top-50 rate in the nation while Tech shoots them at a top-50 rate. I imagine the freshman has gotten his nerves out. Texas Tech expects to get a lot of the offense from deep, where Anderson shot 42% in conference play. He's due for some major positive regression and will see additional minutes, so feel free to bet some alts here.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.