2026 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Sleepers (March Madness)

Everyone is well acquainted with the top seeds in the tournament. Plenty of brackets and bets alike will be riding on the top four seeds from each region, but the tournament rarely provides chalk. So, who are those sleepers poised to make a run to the Final Four? Let's take a look at a couple that could bust some brackets and cut down some nets.

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2026 NCAA Tournament: Sleepers to Make the Final Four (March Madness)

East Region

The St. John's Red Storm are one of the most experienced teams in the nation. At an average of 2.25 years of experience, they rank 34th in the nation in that regard. That experience is a big reason they take care of the ball so well, a key to winning at this time of year. In fact, they rank well in most key metrics, besides shooting.

For what the Red Storm lack in shooting, they make up in defense. They run teams off the three-point line at one of the highest rates in the country, holding opponents to just .337 shooting from deep. That helps reduce variance on a game-to-game basis and gives them a distinct advantage over teams that live and die by the three, like Duke. This poise and experience, mixed with a distinct coaching advantage in almost any matchup, is a big reason St. John's is a sleeper in the East.

South Region

Vanderbilt is another experienced team, but they actually shoot the ball well. The Commodores are a team that relies heavily on jumpers. That can bite them often, which is why their resume resulted in just a 5-seed, but when they're on, they're one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Just ask Florida, who was on the wrong side of a 10-for-21 shooting performance from deep by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament.

Led by sensational sophomore Tyler Tanner, the Commodores will go as far as their guards can carry them. With 10 victories over tournament teams this season, Vanderbilt has proven that they can compete and go all the way to Houston. Their defense is strong, they take care of the ball, they play strong defense, and most importantly, they make their free throws, allowing them to put any opponent away late and send themselves to the Final Four.

West Region

Few teams are going to be able to match the talent of BYU, led by future top-five pick, AJ Dybantsa. They're a team that seeks getting to the rim, and they're exceptionally good at it. Their 2P% is 56.2%, which is 42nd in the nation. On the defensive end of the floor, they've had some poor three-point luck, but they do themselves a lot of favors by having one of the lowest FTA rates.

The Cougars have played a difficult Big 12 schedule, but their non-conference games have tested them as well. In fact, BYU has already played and beaten Wisconsin and Miami, who are in their bracket, as well as playing two very competitive games with the 1-seed Arizona Wildcats. With their talent, offensive efficiency, and experience this season, they're one of the most dangerous teams below the 4-seed line in the tournament and certainly in the West Region.

Midwest Region

The 2026 version of Tennessee is a top 15 defensive team according to KenPom. The Volunteer defense is anchored by an eFG% that ranks 35th in the country. Their three-point defense plays a big role in that. Even though they give up 44.4% of FGA from deep, opponents are hitting only 30.6%. Offensively, they aren't a strong shooting team, but they make that up with second chance opportunities. In fact, no team in the country rebounds the ball better on the offensive glass.

This is a poised and well-coached team that will give themselves chances to score even when they aren't shooting well because of their effort on the glass. Few teams will be able to get good shots up from deep, which helps reduce variance against this stout defense. All of this makes Tennessee a sleeper in the Midwest.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho