Getting a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But life isn't always kind to those sitting just below the top line in the bracket. In fact, all four No. 2 seeds very rarely make it past the first weekend, as it’s only happened three times in the last 28 teams. So out of UConn, Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston, which team is the safest bet to make it past the first weekend, and which is most likely to be the first No. 2 seed to lose? I break it all down below.
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2026 NCAA Tournament: First 2 Seed to Lose
Iowa State
Danger of being the first No. 2 to lose: Low
Out of all the No. 2 seeds, Iowa State got the best draw. The Cyclones will have no problem getting past No. 15 Tennessee State, and I don't think that No. 7 Kentucky or No. 10 Santa Clara poses much of a threat to them. After all, Kentucky has lost three of its last five games, and Santa Clara is a great story, but the Broncos went 0-3 against Gonzaga this season, losing each meeting by at least eight.
Even if we throw out competition, Iowa State is just flat out good this season. Six of the Cyclones' seven losses came against teams in the NCAA Tournament, with five of those losses coming against teams seeded No. 6 or better.
No. 3 Virginia poses a threat in the second weekend, but realistically, the Cyclones may be on their way to the Final Four. If they're the first No. 2 seed to lose, I'll be shocked.
Purdue
Danger of being the first No. 2 to lose: Why might they play Missouri in St. Louis?
There's been a lot of discussion around how bad a position No. 7 Miami (FL) is in having to play No. 10 Missouri in St. Louis. But what if Missouri wins and gets to play what would essentially amount to a home game against No. 2 Purdue? Yes, I understand it's only about 270 miles from Purdue to St. Louis, but still, that's nearly three times the distance Missouri and its fans will have to travel as a No. 10 seed.
All that said, I love this bracket for Purdue. If it weren't for that weird logistical issue, Purdue would be my safest No. 2 seed. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten Tournament, beating a great Michigan team pretty handily. No. 6 BYU is missing too many key players to be a threat, and No. 3 Gonzaga just doesn't feel like a real threat with a 40-point loss to Michigan and a seven-point loss to Portland on its resume.
I don't see Purdue going down before the Elite Eight, but the matchup against No. 1 Arizona is a scary one. If all four No. 2 seeds make it to the Elite Eight, then it will come down to who plays first, because if Purdue does, the Boilermakers are probably going to be the first No. 2 seed out.
Houston
Danger of being the first No. 2 to lose: Medium
Here's what's interesting about No. 2 Houston. Not only do I think they're potentially the weakest No. 2 seed with the toughest No. 3 seed, but they are also the only No. 2 seed playing Thursday and Saturday. That means that if Houston were to slip up against No. 7 Saint Mary's or No. 10 Texas A&M, they would be the first No. 2 seed eliminated.
I think the Cougars will ultimately make it to the second weekend. After all, they are 28-6, and if it weren't for a three-game losing streak that featured games at Iowa State and Kansas as well as a home game against Arizona, Houston could have been a No. 1 seed. Still, the scheduling quirk has me worried. As does the fact that I think that No. 3 Illinois is a legitimate Final Four contender.
UConn
Danger of being the first No. 2 to lose: It's happening
I understand that I am picking against a program that is 29-5 and 13-1 in its last three NCAA Tournaments. However, I hate this draw for the Huskies. The Huskies will get out of the first round, but then what happens?
In the second round, they will either face a No. 7 UCLA team that is getting healthy at the right time or a No. 10 UCF group that has wins over BYU, Texas Tech, and Kansas. If you told me right now that one No. 2 seed was guaranteed to get eliminated during the first weekend, I'd say it was UConn after falling to UCLA.
Even if UConn gets out the first weekend, they would then likely play No. 3 Michigan State. Then, if they somehow won that game, I don't see the Huskies beating No. 1 Duke or No. 5 St. John's, especially after how easily St. John's took care of business in the Big East Tournament. Ultimately, I think UConn will be gone before any of this is a factor, as the Huskies get eliminated in the Round of 32 for the second consecutive season.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.