2026 NCAA Tournament: Sleepers to Make the Sweet 16 (March Madness)

The bracket is set. The lines are out. And March Madness is here. If you're like me, you will stress over every little decision. If you aren't like me, you will trust my advice and use this article to build your brackets. In this article, I will discuss some of my favorite sleepers to make the Sweet 16.

In this instance, I consider sleepers to be double-digit seeds. In 16 straight tournaments, at least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16. Last year, it was only 10-seeded Arkansas to squeak through, and I think we’re moving more to chalky tournaments, but I imagine there will be more this year. Successfully predicting that team can be the difference between winning and losing your bracket.

Below are my favorite Sweet 16 sleepers.

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2026 NCAA Tournament: Sleepers to Make the Sweet 16 (March Madness)

No. 11 South Florida (+1200 DraftKings)

The Bulls are gaining steam and have already moved from +7.5 to +4.5 at some books. Louisville might be without their star guard, Mikel Brown Jr., and even with him, they were suspect at best. The Cardinals’ metrics were bolstered by beating down on bad teams. In Quad 1A games, Louisville went 1-8, ranking 57th in such games with the 125th-ranked defense. They also rank 357th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric. The paper tiger claims are real for Pat Kelsey’s squad, which might not even be full strength.

USF, meanwhile, hasn’t lost a game since January. Izaiyah Nelson has been awesome, winning American Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Newcomer of the Year. Bryan Hodgson’s squad is athletic and physical, imposing its offense on opponents. While the Bulls might not be the most efficient hoopers, their field goal rate ranks top-35 nationally with the number of second-chance looks and free throw attempts they conjure every game. Defensively, they force turnovers and funnel shots to the perimeter, where the Cardinals shot only 33 percent in games away from home.

I’m not as worried about the first matchup as the potential Round of 32 showdown with Michigan State. Sparty is the single best unit at limiting opposing offensive boards, which no team is more dependent on than USF. But that’s why they’re +1200, their high percentile field goal rate attempts on either end of the court keeps them in any game. No team shoots two-point attempts closer to the rim, so all the high percentage chances gives me confidence in this team’s ability to play into the second weekend. Not to mention these odds are +650 at BetMGM, +750 at FanDuel, and +800 at bet365. So at the very least, this is a +EV bet on DraftKings, and I’d jump on it before it moves.

No. 11 VCU (+1100 BetMGM)

We all know that UNC is missing their star player, Caleb Wilson. The likely lottery pick was the difference from North Carolina ranking 21st to 32nd overall, per Hoop-Explorer, and with Wilson’s absence, EvenMiya actually has VCU favored in this game. It also helps that this game is being played in Greenville. No team has played worse away from home compared to seasonal averages than the Tar Heels. At home, UNC was the 10th best team in the country; in all other play, they were 47th.

VCU has been all around solid since mid-January, going 16-1 with a top-65 offense and defense. They are an all-around unit where the leading scorer comes off the bench. They push the pace offensively and have a lot of experience and the ability to sling it from deep. Henri Veesaar will be a problem and will get a lot of usage without Wilson, but this game is essentially a coin flip, offering much better chances than the 6-11 seed game usually offers.

If they win, the Rams will have to face one of the most historically efficient offenses in the history of college basketball in Illinois. But the Illini result consistency metric ranks 338th per Haslametrics. Offense can come and go, but defense is easier to lean on over the course of a tournament. Fortunately, Brad Underwood’s squad has a sub-100 defense against Quad I opponents this year. There’s a chance Illinois doesn’t show up with the quick turnaround, and VCU fans should travel well here. The Rams also rank +750 on DraftKings and +950 on FanDuel, so this is another value offer compared to how other books are pricing VCU to reach the second weekend.

No. 10 Missouri (+1000)

Another team that’s offensively dependent, I’m fading and betting on the Tigers to take advantage of their near home court advantage for their first two games. Everyone is writing off Missouri after entering the tournament, losing three straight games, but the magic of the NCAA Tournament is that everyone is 0-0. This is a team that beat Florida, and for finding value to enter the second weekend, you have to find the teams that can reach a certain ceiling, and we’ve witnessed that from Mizzou.

Mark Mitchell is capable of taking over a game, and Dennis Gates’ squad has the third tallest team in the country, leaning on offensive boards and second-chance looks to manufacture offense. Playing in their backyard is a huge advantage here, especially against Miami. The Hurricanes are weak beyond the arc defensively, and Missouri’s size will be an issue for Dennis Gates’ desire to get offensive boards of their own.

Assuming Missouri advances, they also face one of the most historically efficient offenses in college hoops history. But Purdue is probably the least scary tournament team in recent history, and their defense is 65th against Quad I teams. With Missouri’s ability to generate shot attempts, all it takes is one hot and cold day to make it to the second weekend and cash this bet.

Otherwise, some mid-major double-digit seeds I may sprinkle some Sweet 16 futures on are Northern Iowa and Troy. UNI has been battling injuries all year, and with their whole team healthy, they rank out as a top-15 defense. They can slow down teams, are playing their best basketball, and don’t have the toughest second-round opponent if they can pull off the upset of St. John’s.

For Troy, no team has played better against tougher competition compared to their seasonal averages than the Trojans. This is a team that beat San Diego State on the road, took a healthy USC team to triple-OT, and handled Akron by 10. They’re facing a team that has never won a tournament game before to open, and at the very least, I feel their odds are better than two percent to pull it off, as their +5500 odds suggest.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho