Now that the 68-team field has been whittled down to the last four teams, all four No.1 seeds remain. The tournament has proven top seeding correct so far. Final Four action is set for Friday, April 3, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. I'll target the both games for my best Women's NCAA Tournament Final Four bets.
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Friday's Best Women’s NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Final Four
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
South Carolina Gamecocks (+245) vs. Connecticut Huskies (-6.5) | O/U 136.5 (-110/-110)
Dawn Staley is 5-9 in her career against Geno Auriemma. At first glance, you might think “What is there to show me in this .357 record, Luke?” and that’s a valid question. I would answer how the head coach with the most wins against Geno all time is the late, great Patrica “Pat” Head Summitt and she had nine with a 9-13 record head-to-head. Dawn’s five looks a little better, doesn’t it?
Geno Auriemma is 1,288-165 across 40 seasons at the reigns of the Connecticut Huskies. He has won nearly 89% of the games he has coached, meaning he only loses about one in every nine (.111). Now when you look at Dawn Staley’s 5-9 record it represents that she beats Geno at roughly a 3x rate of the average coach. To put it another way, Geno has lost roughly one in nine games across his career, but against Staley, he loses one in three. Additionally, these two coaches are locked at 2-2 on neutral sites, and all five of Staley’s wins have come since 2020. Staley is also the only coach to ever beat Auriemma in the Championship game (2022).
For even more context, Geno built the Connecticut program into what it has become so he didn’t begin his career winning games at that clip. His first season, 1985-1986, his team went 12-15, followed by 14-13, and 17-11 for a .524 winning percentage in his first three seasons in Storrs. Nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from the standard he would set. Since the 1988-1989 seasons, Auriemma is 1,244-126 giving him an even more unbelievable winning percentage of 90.8% over the last 38 seasons. Since Dawn Staley took over the Gamecocks in 2008, Auriemma is 669-43 (.936) and has won over 93% of his games, so his opponents have won less than 7%. Dawn’s 35% is looking even prettier, huh? Staley was also 0-8 from 2008-2019, but since 2020 Staley has won five of their seven head-to-head matchups or 71.4%. In that same time, Auriemma has only lost 23 games but five of those losses (nearly 22%) have come to Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks.
When these met last year in the National Championship game, South Carolina didn’t have answers for all of UConn’s weapons. That was last year and this is this year. Paige Bueckers is gone, preparing for her second season on the Dallas Wings, Azzi Fudd did not play like the #1 overall pick last weekend against North Carolina and Notre Dame, and Dawn Staley should have an answer for Sarah Strong in 6’6″ center Madina Okot, who is averaging a 13.2-point/10.8-rebound double-double. The senior transfer from Mississippi State could be the key to the Gamecocks reaching their fourth National Title game in five years and fifth since 2017. Okot has developed enough of a shot that she can really open up the South Carolina offense by spreading out the UConn defense and forcing Strong to defend her outside of the paint with her 48.1% shooting from deep.
South Carolina boasts six players with scoring averaging in double figures led by Joyce Edwards (19.7) and including Ta’Niya Latson (14.4), Okot (13.2), Tessa Johnson (13.2), Raven Johnson (10.2), and Chloe Kitts (10.2) The Gamecocks are going to bring it offensively regardless of who is on the court and force the Huskies to score in ways no one else this tournament has.
Connecticut has made mincemeat of everyone in its path this season. Their “worst” game was a game where they were tied at halftime with Villanova only to win by 14. Tonight will be the Huskies’ toughest test so far in their attempt at Geno’s 7th perfect season. This one is going to be a dogfight and the winner is going to be the favorite in Sunday’s National Championship.
Pick: South Carolina +6.5 (-110)
Sprinkle: South Carolina Moneyline (+245)
Texas Longhorns (-1.5) vs. UCLA Bruins (+114) | O/U 133.5 (-110/-110)
According to ESPN Analytics, the Bruins have a 51.4% of defeating the Longhorns on Friday night. That kind of implied probability should equate to them being a -106 favorite. Their current moneyline of +114 carries an implied probability of 46.7% and offers nearly 5% in added value.
Lauren Betts transferred from Stanford before last season and all she has done is lead the Bruins to back-to-back Final Fours, the only two in program history. The 6’7″ senior is averaging 17.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks this season and recently took home Big 10 Player of the Year honors. She is joined by fellow All-Big Ten Team selections Kiki Rice (1st Team) and Gabriela Jaquez (2nd Team). Rice is averaging 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists this season and Jaquez has added 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds. They also have the service of fifth-year senior Charlisse Leger-Walker in her first year at UCLA after four years at Washington State. The kiwi out of Waikato, New Zealand is contributing 14.5 points and 5.2 rebounds this season.
The Bruins have won 28 straight games, a streak that dates all the way back to non-con. On November 27, 2025, the Bruins dropped their only game of the season, 76-65, to none other than these same Longhorns. Texas got out to a 25-10 lead and set the tone. Despite a 45-20 halftime deficit, UCLA came out in the second half and nearly doubled their first-half total with a 22-point 3rd quarter. It wasn’t enough to win, but Bruins HC Cori Close clearly found adjustments to make in the second half of that game that she can bring into this one.
Pick: UCLA Moneyline (+114)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.