Buckle up as the Women’s College Tournament to get into full swing on Friday, March 20, 2026. I'll target a couple of the games during the loaded Day 1 action for my Women's NCAA Tournament Picks and Best Bets.
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Friday's Best Women’s NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: First Round
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Murray State Racers (OFF) vs. Maryland Terrapins (-30.5) | O/U 165.5 (-110/-110)
Maryland is 9-22 ATS against a 30.5-point spread this season and has covered a spread this big in just two of their last 17 games. This includes a brutal stretch of 1-13 in their last 14 contests. They haven’t covered this number away from Xfinity Center since an 88-41 win back on January 8 against a then 8-8 Rutgers team when they were 16-1. After that game, Rutgers went 1-12 SU to finish its 1-17 conference season and 9-22 overall, including the conference tournament. Coincidentally, since that game Maryland is just 7-7 SU.
Murray State also happens to be 31-3 themselves and 32-1 ATS against 30.5-points this season. Their long failure to cover was their second game of the season, a 91-60 loss to South Dakota State. Combine their 32-1 ATS with UMD’s 9-22 ATS, both against this number, and this is a recipe for a lock. Led by Halli Poock and her 22.4 PPG, the Racers are no joke, especially if they get out of the gate fast!
If and when they turn on this moneyline, it would definitely be worth a sprinkle as well. As someone who lives 20 minutes from College Park, I have enjoyed picking my spots with this Terps team and Brenda Frese is about the only thing that keeps me from going all in. Frese appears to have righted the ship enough with a 6-1 February on the heels of a 3-6 January that saw them go 1-5 SU from January 11 to January 31, but this number is just too high against a team that won 31 games.
Pick: Racers +30.5 (-110)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) vs. Baylor Bears (-102) | O/U 138.5 (-115/-105)
The committee overseeded the Baylor Bears and underseeded the Cornhuskers into First Four game. The Huskers dispatched the Richmond Spiders, 75-56, despite leading by just two at halftime. You could make an argument that the Spiders were capable of upsetting the Bears, so Nebraska could easily win as an “underdog.” The betting public knows this too as the Huskers, despite playing in the First Four of Wednesday, are the betting favorites against Baylor heading into the Round of 64 matchup.
Nebraska is 19-12 now, but three of those losses were by three points or less, meaning they could have easily finished the season 21-9 and been seeded closer to correctly. Look for them to get the “upset” here for their 20th win of the season and send the Bears home to Waco early, ending an already disappointing season.
ESPN Analytics gives Nebraska a 55.3% chance of advancing, meaning the betting public has moved the moneyline closer to true value, but there is still some juice to squeeze out.
Pick: Nebraska Moneyline (-118)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.