The first World Cup semifinal will be played on Tuesday, as France and Spain meet in a clash of European powerhouses. Over the last two years, these two teams have met twice in important matches, with Spain winning 2-1 in 2024 and 5-4 in 2025. Will France get revenge, or will Spain prevent the French from reaching their third World Cup final in a row? Here are the best 2026 World Cup picks for Friday’s semifinal matchup: France vs. Spain.
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Tuesday’s Best 2026 World Cup Picks & Predictions: France vs. Spain
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
France vs. Spain
France hasn't really cruised through the knockout stage, but Kylian Mbappé and company have outscored opponents 6-0 since the Round of 32. However, that has more to do with the attacking talent of France's opponents than with the French defense itself. And for as good as Morocco was at this tournament, don't forget that Ismael Saibari, who scored in each group stage match, was unavailable against France.
Then there is Spain. They finally conceded a goal in the quarterfinals, as Belgium broke through before halftime. While Spain is allowing just 0.33 expected goals per game, this is the French offense we're talking about. France has scored 16 goals at this World Cup, and after scoring against Spain four times in 2025, I don't see any reason the French won't score at least once here.
Both teams are averaging at least 60% possession, with Spain at 65% through six games. While it may seem like Spain needs to maintain possession in this match to win, Spain's success against France has come in two very different games.
In the 2024 EURO Cup semifinals, Spain possessed the ball for 58% of the game, allowing France to put just three shots on target. In the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal, Spain possessed the ball for 43% of the game, allowing nine shots on net, and still won.
While France has been the team to beat at this tournament, the offense has really struggled early in games. The French have just two first-half goals against teams playing their starters in six World Cup matches. Spain is not a team you want to fall behind against. I worry France’s early difficulties could be problematic, as no one wants to chase a game against Spain.
All in all, Spain is being seriously undervalued in this match. While I'm tempted to back the Spanish to win in regulation at +225, I'll ultimately stick with them to advance at +125. And though I expect both teams to score, I anticipate a very slow-moving first half, as has been the case in most games involving France.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-155), Spain to Advance (+125) & Under 0.5 First-Half Goals (+178)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.