There are only two games tonight, as the Mercury battle the Lynx and the Sparks face the Dream. Below, I explain why I like both underdogs tonight, and I also highlight why bettors may be overvaluing the Dream's offense against the worst scoring defense in the league. Here are the best WNBA picks for Monday, July 13th.
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Monday's Best WNBA Picks & Bets
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
The last time the Mercury and Lynx played, the Lynx won by 34 points. While that performance will be fresh in bettors’ minds tonight, I don't like the way Minnesota has been playing of late.
The Lynx haven't beaten a team by more than eight points since June 17th. That's an eight-game stretch of either single-digit wins or losses. The Lynx are just 2-2 in their last four games, with a loss and a six-point win against the 5-18 Sun during that span.
For all my concerns about the Lynx, the Mercury have also lost three games in a row. Most recently, the Mercury lost by 48 points to the Aces. But this is a team that lost to the Lynx by just four points earlier this season. And for as much as the Mercury have struggled this season, they've only lost by more than 13.5 points once in their last 10 games.
Pick: Mercury +13.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Sparks at Atlanta Dream
The Sparks' defense has been very bad this season, allowing 93.2 points per game. However, the Dream are allowing just 84.4 points per contest, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. And with these two teams ranking sixth and seventh, respectively, in the league in scoring offense, it seems this line is accounting for too much of the Sparks' defense.
Though they're 13-10, the Dream have not been playing well of late. Atlanta has scored 83 or fewer points in four of their last seven games. In three of those seven contests, both teams failed to score more than 81 points.
And for as bad as the Sparks have been defensively, they've held three consecutive opponents to 92 points or fewer, with two of those teams failing to score more than 87. And while the Sparks have topped 100 points in back-to-back games, the Dream have allowed more than 100 points just four times all season.
I expect this number to continue to increase before tip-off, so don't be afraid to wait to get in on this under.
Pick: Under 180.5 Points (-106)
Los Angeles Sparks at Atlanta Dream
Remember when I said Atlanta hasn’t been playing well? Well, they're just 1-6 in their last seven games, with three of those losses coming by 10+ points. Their only win since June 24th was a victory over the 6-19 Storm.
Meanwhile, the Sparks have won back-to-back games by at least 14 points, and they're 6-5 in their last 11 games. While they're still one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, they're playing well right now. Even though they're on the road tonight, I don't understand why they're so undervalued against a team that can't get out of its own way.
The Sparks struggle defending the three-point line, allowing 9.3 made shots from behind the arc per game. However, the Dream are one of the worst teams to take advantage of this deficiency, as they're shooting just 31.2% from long range. That's fourth-worst in the WNBA.
Pick: Sparks +8.5 (-110)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.