I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for 49ers vs. Jaguars.
NFL Betting Primer: 49ers vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The Jaguars are 75% ATS this season, tied for the best in the NFL with the Lions. They have won their last 8 of 9 games against teams with a winning record. 5-0 ATS and straight up over their last five games.
Jacksonville is strong versus the run: Top-3 in the fewest rushing yards per game. No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (56.1).
The Jaguars' defense doesn't allow many big plays - No. 1 fewest overall explosive plays allowed per game. SF ranks third in this category.
So, although the 49ers have gone over their total in 4 of their last 5 games, I lean toward the under with two defenses that limit big plays going head-to-head. SF has also not gone over its projected total in back-to-back road games.
Average total points between these two teams this season: 44.2
As for the sides, this looks like a spot to buy low on the 49ers. Remember the 49ers were dealing with all sorts of injuries during their three-game skid. They needed this bye week to get healthy and to get back to their dominant selves. The Jaguars were on hot streak, and might have cooled off during the bye.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are BY FAR the toughest matchup the Jags have drawn this season.
On the props side, I am backing overs in terms of the passing game. Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). Brock Purdy has thrown for 244.5-plus passing yards in 62.5% of his game this season.
Both teams should face a lot of raw passing attempts, with both units facing top-3 pass rates on defense this season. The Jaguars are allowing most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs, 2nd? The 49ers.
My Picks:
- 49ers -3
- Under 45.5
My Props:
- Brock Purdy over 244.5 passing yards
- Brandon Aiyuk over 63.5 receiving yards
- Trevor Lawrence over 33.5 passing attempts
- Christian Kirk over 4.5 receptions
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts