With the third week of the NFL preseason complete, we have a clearer picture of depth charts, player injuries, and rookie impacts. With this information, it is now time to make our most informed decisions on NFL win totals. Let’s start with the AFC.
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Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 (-120)
Double-digit overs are always tricky, but not for the most explosive offense in the NFL. Led by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have actually added weapons with rookie RB Darwin Thompson and blazing WR Mecole Hardman. Besides Mahomes, the Chiefs feature two offensive players that are without equal: wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Over the past two seasons, Hill has produced top-12 wide receiver production in 38.7 percent of his weeks. Kelce is the best tight end in football, receiving the highest team target share of any NFL tight end.
Kansas City’s prolific offense has offset their poor rush defense by forcing teams to play from behind. However, they improved their sack total from 31 in 2017 to 53 last season. The off-season acquisitions of defensive ends Frank Clark and Alex Okafor, as well as veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu, give new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a plethora of talent. With four games against inferior opponents Denver and Oakland, and a home game against Indianapolis now looking even easier, the double-digit win total is an easy cover.
Miami Dolphins Under 4.5 (+110)
The hook on Dolphins makes this an incredible value. Despite being thoroughly outplayed in the preseason by Josh Rosen, the Miami coaching staff is still considering veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. Fitzpatrick’s career touchdown to interception ratio of 190 to 148 guarantees to provide extra chances for the opposition. This is bad news for a Dolphins team that Sharp Football projects to have one of the NFL’s most difficult schedule against the pass.
Regardless of their quarterback, the Dolphins have significant issues on the offensive line, which Pro Football Focus ranks dead last this year. There is also little hope for a defensive improvement this season with a unit that Football Outsiders ranked bottom third in both pass and run DVOA. Miami lost a pair of standout pass rushers in Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, and they are banking on defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to be a leader as a rookie.
One of the most difficult statistic to maintain annually is rate of success in close games. The Dolphins finished 7-1 in one-score games, yet failed to tally any other wins during the season. It would be in the Dolphins’ best interest to earn a quality pick in a rich 2020 draft class, and that shouldn’t be difficult with an opening schedule that includes Baltimore, New England, Dallas, and the Los Angeles Chargers. With a brand new coaching staff, poor offensive line, and a brutal schedule, grab the under on the Dolphins season win total.
Baltimore Ravens Over 8.5 (-110)
I am very bullish on the Ravens in 2019. Baltimore has built a roster that should maximize the incredible talent of second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. The biggest change will come at offensive coordinator, where Greg Roman brings a resume of experience with mobile quarterbacks such as Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick. Once Jackson took over as the starting quarterback in Week 11, the Ravens became the run-heaviest team in the NFL, finishing 6-1 to qualify for the playoffs.
To support their strong-armed but inaccurate quarterback, the Ravens drafted speedy wide receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin along with satellite back Justice Hill. Last season, Jackson already showed a connection with rookie tight end Mark Andrews, who totaled 552 receiving yards despite playing on only one-third of the snaps. Baltimore also signed veteran running back Mark Ingram which gives the offense the legitimate top running back they have been sorely missing.
The Ravens draw the second-softest schedule of run defenses per Sharp Football, and they will face the Patriots off of a bye week and host the Jets in a Week 14 Thursday Night home game. For the first time in many seasons, the division leader Steelers have serious question marks, while the Browns’ offensive line leaves them vulnerable to the Ravens lethal pass rush. Add in defensive leaders Earl Thomas, Shane Ray, and Pernell McPhee, and a nine-win season is the floor for this talented and balanced Ravens roster.
Oakland Raiders Under 6 (-110)
Whether it’s the curse of Hard Knocks, or the drama surrounding Antonio Brown’s helmet, all signs point to another poor season for the Oakland Raiders. Having decreased their win total in each of the past three seasons, head coach Jon Gruden enters the year with even more questions than 2018. That’s a bad omen with two 12-win teams already atop their division.
The Raiders were third-worst in the NFL in DVOA, forcing management to spend four of their top five draft picks on defensive players. These young players will be faced with stopping the sixth-toughest schedule of opposing offenses. The Raiders went 1-5 in the division, and this year they face tough road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Houston. In 2018, Oakland finished 1-7 away from home.
The most significant question mark comes at quarterback, where sixth-year player Derek Carr enters a make-or-break season. Last season, Carr finally crested 4,000 passing yards but did so with only 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Their rushing game will fall on the shoulders of rookie running back Josh Jacobs, who failed to break 650 rushing yards in any of his three seasons at Alabama. While Brown could still play at an elite level, there are too many things working against the Raiders to bet the under.
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Mike Randle is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @randlerant.