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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds and Game Pick (2020)

by January 1, 2021
Matt Ryan

When it comes to how each NFC division is shaping up in 2020, the NFC South may be the least surprising of the bunch.

The incumbent Saints have once again claimed the division, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hot on their tails. They’re looking to close out an 11-5 season with a win on Sunday, which would also secure the No. 5 seed as the conference’s top wild-card team.

A chance to play spoiler is the only thing on the line for the visiting Falcons. But if their last four games are any indication, they won’t roll over easily. Let’s take a closer look at this Week 17 matchup.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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  • Opening Lines: Buccaneers -7; O/U 50
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  • Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: December 20, 2020 – Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27

View consensus picks and notes from top betting experts for the Falcons vs. Buccaneers


For the 4-11 Falcons, a 0-5 start proved too difficult to ever recover from despite winning two of their next three. In addition to having virtually no running game to speak of, their defense battled injuries and inconsistencies throughout the season, allowing 392.6 yards and 24.7 points per game.

A Week 5 loss to divisional foe Carolina was the final nail in the coffin for head coach Dan Quinn. While his six years in Atlanta produced two winning seasons, including one that finished minutes from a Super Bowl title, an aging Matt Ryan puts the team in win-now mode. Quinn, in addition to general manager Thomas Dimitroff, weren’t the guys for the job in the eyes of owner Arthur Blank.

The “Tompa Bay” era for the Buccaneers is off to a resounding success, as Tom Brady and his elite stable of weapons have led the team to their first playoff appearance since 2007. While the division is out of reach following two losses to the leading Saints, a win on Sunday would secure the fifth seed and a coveted first-round trip to face the winner of the NFC East.

While the Buccaneers’ passing game has been among the league’s best, accounting for 282.3 yards and 36 touchdowns on the season, their defense has quietly been just as stellar. Through 15 games, they have allowed just 323.3 yards per game, including a staggering 77.5 yards on the ground to lead the league.


  • The Over is 5-0 in their last five matchups.
  • The home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups.
  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a SU loss.

Prop Bet

Home Team Total Points – Under 29
The last time we saw the Buccaneers on the field was a day-after-Christmas shellacking (47-7) of the Detroit Lions. Unlike the Lions, the Falcons are still playing hard, and I think we see some recency bias baked into this team total.

Bottom Line

Since the Quinn firing, interim head coach Raheem Morris has done a respectable job rallying his guys to a 4-6 record against a brutal schedule. Despite having a limited Julio Jones even when he was on the field, only one of the Falcons’ last five losses, including games versus the Buccaneers, Chiefs, and two against the Saints, has been by more than five points.

With no chance of a home playoff game, we’ll see a conservative game plan from the Buccaneers as they look to stay healthy heading into what they expect to be a deep playoff run.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +6.5

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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.

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