What will be the last game of the day on New Year’s Day, the #7 Baylor Bears will take on the #8 Ole Miss Rebels in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. Pitting one of the best defenses in the BIG 12 against one of the best offenses in the entire country, this should be a great game that college football fans across the board are excited about.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
- Opening Line: Rebels -1.5, O/U 50.5
- Current Line: Rebels -1.5, O/U 55.5
- Last meeting: No recent meetings
Finishing the regular season allowing just 19.2 points per game, this Baylor defense has been the cornerstone of a team that most would say overachieved in 2021. Losing just two games, including one to eventual conference champion Oklahoma State, the Bears won their final four games of the season and gave up 11 points per game over that stretch.
Their 118.8 rushing yards allowed per game this season was good for #18 in the country and is something they’ll need to lean on in this one against an attack in Ole Miss that has four runners who surpassed 500 yards this season.
Speaking of the Ole Rebels, it’s not just the rushing attack that has been burning opponents this season. Matt Corral, who has declared for the NFL Draft already but chosen to stick around for this one, has had a season to remember. In addition to running for almost 600 yards, Corral has this offense humming to the tune of 35.9 points per game and he personally has accounted for 31 touchdowns on the season.
- Under is 4-0 in Bears L4 games
- Under is 7-0 in Rebels L7 games
- Under is 4-0 in Rebels L4 Bowl games
In addition to Corral sticking around despite NFL Draft preparation sitting right around the corner, Rebels’ offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is also sticking around for this game despite already taking a job at Oklahoma. This speaks to the kind of culture that head coach Lane Kiffin has created in Oxford, and I think we see that shine through here.
Pick: Ole Miss -1.5
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