I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bears vs. Chiefs.
NFL Betting Primer: Bears vs. Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs (KC) vs. Chicago Bears (CHI) – Spread: KC -12.5
What a mess this could be. The Bears are 12.5-point road underdogs versus the reigning Super Bowl champions. And all the news outlets that have been covering this game can't stop talking about Justin Fields and his lack of progression as a passer two games into the 2023 season. Obviously, the Chiefs are going to win, but can they cover the massive spread? Well, historically speaking here are the key trends to look at per the Action Network. KC is 9-13-1 against the spread as double-digit home favorites. But it should be noted that while KC is 4-8 against the spread over their last 12 games as double-digit favorites, they have covered four of their last six double-digit favored games at home. The non-covers were against the Broncos (divisional opponent) and the Giants (playing after a loss on Monday night football). Considering the last time KC was double-digit favorites at home they didn't cover, I'd say they put the ultimate beatdown to build momentum for their offense.
Because if any team can't cover their side of the spread, it's the Bears. Chicago is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit underdogs.
They just lost their defensive coordinator. So, although Fields and the disconnect with the coaching staff have been headlining news outlets, I don't see any situation where the Chiefs offense doesn't dismantle the worst defense in the NFL.
As for the total, I lean toward the under. Mahomes is 9-2 toward the under at home over his last 11 games. When teams don't push them playing in a hostile Arrowhead environment, they tend to go under the projected total.
As for props, it starts with Fields. He's going to run more. Last week was an outlier. Rushed for just three yards on four carries. It was very unusual to not see Fields rushing. Lowest carry total since Week 11 of his rookie year (in a game he didn't finish). Again, looks like a major outlier performance. Said he wants to play more like himself. And that's as one of the league's most electric rushers and playmakers in space. He's rushed for at least 57.5 yards in 80% of his last 10 games.
I also like the overs on some RBs. The whispers continue to grow for Roschon Johnson seeing an expanded role, especially as a receiver. He's 2-0 over 8.5 receiving yards through his first two NFL games. Week 3 will be third with the Bears going pass-heavy against negative game script. Johnson has nine targets through two games with a 30% target rate per route run.
On the Chiefs side, I have no clue which WR Is going to have a big game. KC rotates all their guys, making it tough to sort through. However, the backfield is more clear-cut. Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 12 times for 70 yards in Week 2 but had just 2 targets. Not Ideal receiving usage, but all other KC RBs combined for two carries. And his snap rate (51%) and route participation were encouraging compared to Week 1. I'd be betting on Pacheco ahead of a matchup versus the lowly Chicago Bears run defense. Rachaad White rushed for 73 yards versus the Bears in Week 2.
And dating back to Week 10 - when Pacheco started playing full snaps as the Chiefs RB1 - he has rushed for over 55.5 rushing yards in 70% of his games.
My Picks:
- Chiefs -12.5 (-110 BetMGM)
- Under 48.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
My Props:
- Justin Fields over 57.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco over 55.5 rushing yards
- Roschon Johnson over 8.5 receiving yards
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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