Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Stay tuned for an exciting journey through the world of NFL betting - it’s time to elevate your game! Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 1 games. And below I offer my top picks and player prop bets for Bears vs. Packers.
NFL Betting Primer: Bears vs. Packers
Chicago Bears (CHI) vs. Green Bay Packers (GB) – Spread: GB +1.5
I am siding with the Packers and the points because Jordan Love is in a solid spot against the Chicago Bears. Chicago's defense has made upgrades on the personnel side to improve from their 32nd DVOA ranking from a season ago. But it remains to be seen how quickly those improvements will take shape, giving Love and company an opportunity to take advantage. The Bears have the 31st-ranked DL per PFF due to a severe lack of pass-rush juice, which should allow Love ample time in the pocket to get the ball to his flurry of young playmakers. I like the over on Jordan Love's 202.5 passing yards prop. BettingPros has him projected well over that number at 228 yards.
Meanwhile, Justin Fields could struggle with an unfavorable matchup in the trenches. With some injuries hitting the Bears' offensive line during the preseason - no Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair moving from center to guard - expect the Packers to make life tough on the Bears offense in Week 1. They finished 8th in pressure rate last season. Against Fields - who has a propensity to take sacks - Green Bay's defense has scored 9, 10 and 15 fantasy points in their three previous matchups versus Chicago under current defensive coordinator, Joe Barry. Fields was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks versus Green Bay in 2022, posting 0-3 TD-INT ratio. The Bears QB will likely be fine with his own rushing added to his fantasy profile, but I'd hardly say this is the spot or game where we see Fields' massive NFL leap as a passer. Fields is 0-4 versus Green Bay in his career, with an average margin of loss of nearly 13 points.
I also expect running back A.J. Dillon to get some healthy usage in this spot. Dillon ran wild versus the Bears’ defense the last time he faced them, going for 93 yards and 1 TD on 18 carries. A heavy dosage of Dillon seems to be the Packers' fancy because earlier in the season he saw the exact same workload of 18 carries (albeit for 61 yards). The 2022 game logs suggest we should expect a healthy dosage of Dillon versus a beatable Bears defensive line, as the Packers offense looks for balance in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. Bet the rushing yards over at 40.5 yards (-120 BetMGM).
- My pick: Packers +1.5 (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- My props: Jordan Love OVER 202.5 passing yards (-117 Caesars Sportsbook)
- A.J. Dillon OVER 40.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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