Introducing the Week 5 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Bears vs. Panthers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 5 Betting Primer>>
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Sides:
- The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Panthers have lost 12 of their last 14 games.
- The Bears have won each of their last seven home games.
- The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Bears’ last nine games.
- The Bears are 7-4-1 ATS and 7-5 straight up in their last 12 games.
Totals:
- Ten of the Panthers' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the Bears’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-2-1 toward the under in their last 10 games.
- Ten of the Bears' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
For all the flack Caleb Williams has received in the first month of the season, he has shown signs of growth as the Bears continue to find their identity on offense. Chicago relied on the rushing attack and short passing game to succeed against the Rams.
1. In his first six quarters of play, Caleb Williams went 53-of-93 for 486 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs
In his last six quarters of play, Caleb Williams has gone 34-of-48 for 301 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT
If the obvious progress on film won't sway you, this will.#Bears pic.twitter.com/Bvj7P3jqr9
— Erik Lambert (@ErikLambert1) September 30, 2024
Given the injuries across the offensive line, whether Da Bears can carry over the rushing success remains to be seen. But the matchup is there for the taking against the Panthers' terrible run defense. Carolina’s pass defense has also struggled underneath, allowing the fifth-highest EPA/pass on attempts under 10 air yards.
As for the Panthers’ offense, Chicago is by far the toughest test they have faced under Andy Dalton. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bears have generated a 40.0% pressure rate in the second half this season (5th), compared to 25.4% in the first half (28th).
But Dave Canales’ in-rhythm passing is getting the ball out of Dalton's hands FAST. Per Next Gen Stats, Dalton has the 2nd-most yards on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) with 331.
Sure, the Bears can generate pressure, but the ball might be gone by that point. However, the Bears have been the best defense AGAINST the short passing game (under 10 air yards). They are No. 1 in EPA/pass attempt (-0.33). They rank in the middle of the pack in pass attempts under 2.5 seconds.
Both teams seem likely to approach this game similarly. Get the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly and run the ball effectively.
It is worth noting that we saw Canales face Matt Eberflus' defense in Week 2 of last season when Canales' Buccaneers offense posted 400 yards of offense and 27 points at home. I don't expect nearly that type of offensive production for the road Panthers playing against a solid Bears defense, but they should be able to hold their own in this spot.
I jumped on these early Monday, with the Panthers +4 and the under at 44. Since then, the under has moved to 41.5 - more in line with the BettingPros consensus projections at 41.3.
But I still like the under. As I said, the Bears are BY FAR the best defense Dalton has faced this season. And I'm still not sold this Bears offense under Shane Waldron will be able to exploit the Panthers' weaknesses. The Bears are 2-0 at home and ATS by the slimmest of margins. They've been out-gained in both games but have won going 5-1 in the turnover battle.
Take the under and the Panthers +4. Canales went 8-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield on the road in 2023 and is 1-0 in that category this season with Dalton. He gets the most out of his offense playing away from home.
Props:
I expect the Bears to utilize a short-passing game, which lends itself to Keenan Allen being heavily involved. He's averaged 3.5 catches in two games this season, but his catch rate has been low despite seven targets per game. The over has hit for the last four WRs most comparable to Allen against the Panthers this season.
Chuba Hubbard has rushed for at least 59.5 rushing yards in three straight games and seven of his last 10 contests (70%). Every running back that has faced Chicago this season has gone over their projected rushing total.
My Picks:
- Panthers +4
- Under 40.5
- Keenan Allen OVER 3.5 receptions
- Chuba Hubbard OVER 60.5 rushing yards
