Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Chicago (CHI) vs. Tennessee (TEN): CHI -4.5
Sides
- The Titans were 0-8 ATS on the road in 2023.
- The Titans have lost 10 of their last 11 road games.
- The Bears were 4-3-1 ATS and 5-3 straight up in their final eight games.
- Chicago was 63 percent ATS as a favorite in 2023.
- They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games.
Totals
- Seven of the Bears' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- They are 4-1-1 toward the under in their last six games.
- The Bears finished 4-3-1 toward the over in 2023 at home.
- Each of the Titans’ last four season openers has gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Overall.
I love the NFL. Bears QB Caleb Williams is making his first start of his professional career, and he is a heavy home favorite against the Will Levis-led Tennessee Titans. It's odd to see a rookie QB favored this much in their first start ever, but given the optics of the matchup against another relatively inexperienced second-year QB, the spread makes sense. The market feels great about “da Bears” playing at home, with Williams' offense complimented by a strong Bears defense that was a strong unit down the stretch in 2023. Especially when they played at home, Chicago was a MAJOR problem for opposing offenses. They finished 2023 5-1-1 ATS in Justin Fields' last seven starts. 4-3 straight up. But it wasn't all their defense. Fields had his moments fueling an offense that scored 27-plus points in three of their last five games. With Williams and the additional weapons at his disposal, this Titans defense under new DC, Dennard Wilson, might be in for a long day at the office.
All in all, the Bears seem to have every advantage in this game on paper over the visiting Titans. They are playing at home and boast a superior offense/defense. If Williams wasn't a rookie making his first start, this spread would likely be much larger.
Keep in mind that Levis made four full-road starts last season. The Titans lost by 14-plus points twice and went 1-3 ATS.
Still, because Williams is still a rookie (prone to holding onto the ball too long at times), I prefer to bet the under at 45 points. My projections have it closer to 42.5, with the full BettingPros projections tabling this game at a 43-point total.
This Bears defense could suffocate the Titans’ offense on the road, as it did to its opponents in the second half of last season. They ended 2023 as the No.1 run defense in the NFL.
And as exciting as Williams looked during the preseason, we should fully expect this offense to grow through some growing pains. Also, both these QBs are notorious for holding onto the ball too long. During the 2024 preseason, the only QB who held onto the ball more than Williams (3.68 average time to throw) was ex-Bears QB, Justin Fields. Levis ranked 12th in the pressure-to-sack rate in 2023.
Holding onto the ball leads to more sacks, which leads to empty drives. Then, considering how many new pieces each team has on the offensive side of the ball, it might be a while until we see points on the scoreboard. The Titans also made a flurry of moves this offseason in free agency and the draft to improve their defense, which was extremely poor (particularly versus the pass) in 2023. They signed Chidobe Awuzie and traded for L'Jarius Sneed to upgrade the secondary. They also drafted T’Vondre Sweat and traded for linebacker Ernest Jones to strengthen their run defense.
Under? Yes, please.
Props
- The Bears allowed the fourth-most completions per game in 2023. With the Titans finding no room to run against an elite run defense, Will Levis takes advantage with short aDOT throws in Brian Callahan's new offense.
- Speaking of new offenses. Shane Waldron LOVES Gerald Everett. So much so that they signed him in free agency despite already having Cole Kmet on the roster. Everett played over Kmet at times during the preseason, foreshadowing his underrated role in this offense. 1.5 receptions is a low bar for Everett. He went over that number in 13 of his 15 games played last season in a tight end committee with the Chargers in 2023. Anytime TD bet at long-shot odds? Don’t knock it until you try it.
- Teams that faced the Bears at home in 2023 ran the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL. There's no better way to kick off the post-Derrick Henry era in Tennessee than with 40 dropbacks from Levis. Slam the under on rushing attempts from Tony Pollard, who is in a 50/50 split with Tyjae Spears. Pollard will have his weeks as a rusher, but it won't come in Week 1. I'd expect both RBs to be used more as receivers (hence the over on Levis completions), given the Bears' weakness last season was against defending RBs in the receiving game.
My Picks
- Bears -4
- Under 45
- Will Levis OVER 20.5 completions
- Gerald Everett OVER 1.5 receptions
- Tony Pollard UNDER 11.5 rushing attempts
