Bears vs. Vikings: NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bears vs. Vikings.

NFL Betting Primer: Bears vs. Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears

When Chicago has established an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina and Detroit but not vs. the LA Chargers - their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 4-2 ATS in recent weeks.

But that could be problematic versus the Vikings, who have shut down opposing run games. 9^th in run defense DVOA.

Only one RB the Vikings have faced all season has gone over 65 yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Over their the last 6 weeks, only one RB has surpassed their projected rushing total against Minnesota. Take the under on Bears RB props for Monday Night Football.

The market was sluggish backing the plucky Joshua Dobbs in Arizona, and they are making the same mistake again. Dobbs started 3-0 versus the spread as a member of the Cardinals with no expectations.

The Vikings’ average scoring margin is +2.1 with all but one of their 11 games played this season decided by 8 points or less. This team plays other teams tight every single week, even if they don't win. 6-0 ATS over the last 6 weeks. Fields is 2-4 ATS record this season (10-21-1 career ATS per the Action Network).

Minnesota's defense has ALSO been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt.

Simply put, Dobbs and the Vikings find ways to win and cover games. Meanwhile, the Bears find ways to lose close games and not cover.

In this matchup back in Week 6, the Vikings won outright 19-13 without Justin Jefferson. Obviously, the Bears lost Fields in this game as well. But before he left the game, he was doing virtually nothing against the Vikings defense.

On 6 drives with Fields at QB, the Bears offense totaled 145 net yards. 3 punts, 2 field goals and interception, to go along with 4 sacks. Fields was just 6 of 10 passing for 58 yards. He was doing all his damage as a rusher with 48 yards on the ground.

With this Vikings defense surging I think they provide enough issues to Fields as a passer to give Minnesota the edge.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so I'm fine laying -3.5 at home.

But I really do prefer the under overall.

Even though Justin Fields has been QB for the Bears they are perfect 6-0 toward the over this season. I say that because the Vikings are 8-3 toward the under this season, even after hitting 2 over in their last 3 games played. At home, they are 4-1 toward the under.

Yet another prime time under at 43.5.

The Bears have one of the league's best run defenses allowing just 64 yards per game to opposing backs at a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Mattison was limited to just 44 rushing yards the last time he faced the Bears, and it took him 18 carries to get there. With him splitting more time with the more explosive Ty Chandler, he won't see the requisite volume to hit the over in this matchup.

My Picks:

Vikings -3.5
Under 43.5

My Props:

Alexander Mattison under 43.5 rushing yards

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.