Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 11 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

2022: 59-48-2 ATS (55.1%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 11 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>

2022: 59-48-2 ATS (55.1%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2022)

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Value	Day	CST
Tulsa	Memphis	-8.8	-6.5	-2.3	70	62.5	7.5	Thursday	6:30 PM
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	-7.0	-3	-4.0	59.5	61.5	-2	Thursday	6:30 PM
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-6.3	-5	-1.3	62	53	9	Friday	7:00 PM
Colorado	USC	-35.8	-33.5	-2.3	62	66	-4	Friday	8:30 PM
Fresno St.	UNLV	7.5	9	-1.5	59.5	60.5	-1	Friday	9:30 PM
LSU	Arkansas	1.8	3	-1.2	65.5	64	1.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Missouri	Tennessee	-18.7	-20.5	1.8	59	57	2	Saturday	11:00 AM
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-16.4	-18	1.6	53	48	5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Pittsburgh	Virginia	4.8	4	0.8	49.5	40.5	9	Saturday	11:00 AM
Virginia Tech	Duke	-6.8	-9.5	2.7	57	49.5	7.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Notre Dame	Navy	14.4	15.5	-1.1	46	40.5	5.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Liberty	Connecticut	13.3	14.5	-1.2	42.5	45.5	-3	Saturday	11:00 AM
SMU	South Florida	14.6	17.5	-2.9	70.5	71.5	-1	Saturday	11:00 AM
Purdue	Illinois	-5.4	-6	0.6	46.5	44.5	2	Saturday	11:00 AM
Indiana	Ohio St.	-35.8	-40	4.2	68	58.5	9.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-12.2	-10	-2.2	39.5	40	-0.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Oklahoma	West Virginia	9.6	8	1.6	70	66.5	3.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia St.	-12.9	-14	1.1	57	58.5	-1.5	Saturday	12:00 PM
James Madison	Old Dominion	8.4	7.5	0.9	49	46.5	2.5	Saturday	12:00 PM
Rice	Western Kentucky	-15.6	-13	-2.6	68.5	61	7.5	Saturday	1:00 PM
Temple	Houston	-18.2	-20	1.8	51	57.5	-6.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Alabama	Ole Miss	7.8	12	-4.2	71	64.5	6.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Massachusetts	Arkansas St.	-20.3	-17.5	-2.8	47	49.5	-2.5	Saturday	2:00 PM
Army	Troy	-8.9	-9	0.1	45.5	45.5	0	Saturday	2:30 PM
Wisconsin	Iowa	0.8	1.5	-0.7	42	35	7	Saturday	2:30 PM
Arizona St.	Washington St.	-7.1	-8	0.9	51	59	-8	Saturday	2:30 PM
Northwestern	Minnesota	-22.7	-17.5	-5.2	42.5	40.5	2	Saturday	2:30 PM
Maryland	Penn St.	-10.3	-10	-0.3	61	59	2	Saturday	2:30 PM
Nebraska	Michigan	-27.1	-29	1.9	65	48.5	16.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	3.4	1	2.4	51.5	48.5	3	Saturday	2:30 PM
Louisville	Clemson	-9.0	-7	-2.0	58.5	52	6.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Miami (FL)	Georgia Tech	2.7	-1	3.7	46.5	44	2.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Boston College	North Carolina St.	-18.1	-19	0.9	45.5	41.5	4	Saturday	2:30 PM
UCF	Tulane	0.1	-1.5	1.6	56.5	54.5	2	Saturday	2:30 PM
Appalachian St.	Marshall	1.4	1	0.4	55	47	8	Saturday	2:30 PM
New Mexico	Air Force	-23.8	-21.5	-2.3	38	37	1	Saturday	2:30 PM
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-9.3	-11	1.7	72	67	5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	-15.3	-18.5	3.2	76	68.5	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
North Texas	UAB	-7.8	-5.5	-2.3	54.5	57.5	-3	Saturday	2:30 PM
South Carolina	Florida	-4.1	-8	3.9	61.5	58.5	3	Saturday	3:00 PM
Texas St.	South Alabama	-16.4	-16.5	0.1	43.5	47.5	-4	Saturday	4:00 PM
Georgia	Mississippi St.	13.1	16.5	-3.4	52.5	53.5	-1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Wyoming	Colorado St.	11.7	9	2.7	45.5	42.5	3	Saturday	6:00 PM
Florida Atlantic	Florida International	15.2	15.5	-0.3	46	54.5	-8.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Washington	Oregon	-12.2	-13.5	1.3	77	72.5	4.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Kansas St.	Baylor	-4.4	-2.5	-1.9	46	53.5	-7.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Kansas	Texas Tech	-3.0	-3.5	0.5	73.5	65	8.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
TCU	Texas	-7.4	-7	-0.4	74	64.5	9.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
North Carolina	Wake Forest	-2.7	-3.5	0.8	79.5	77	2.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Texas A&M	Auburn	-1.2	-1.5	0.3	47	48.5	-1.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Southern Miss	Coastal Carolina	0.2	-5.5	5.7	59.5	49	10.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Florida St.	Syracuse	2.9	7	-4.1	54.5	50.5	4	Saturday	7:00 PM
California	Oregon St.	-12.9	-14	1.1	48.5	50	-1.5	Saturday	8:00 PM
Stanford	Utah	-23.3	-24	0.7	55	53.5	1.5	Saturday	9:00 PM
Boise St.	Nevada	18.2	20.5	-2.3	52	47.5	4.5	Saturday	9:30 PM
Arizona	UCLA	-23.1	-19.5	-3.6	85	78	7	Saturday	9:30 PM
San Jose St.	San Diego St.	5.9	2.5	3.4	38	41.5	-3.5	Saturday	9:30 PM
Utah St.	Hawai’i	9.4	11.5	-2.1	49.5	52.5	-3	Saturday	10:00 PM

Louisiana (-3.5) vs. Georgia Southern (Thursday)
ATL: Louisiana -7.0

Louisiana has a trump card in this matchup of a really good pass defense (No. 31 success rate, No. 17 marginal efficiency, No. 28 completion percentage against, No. 30 DB havoc rate).

Georgia Southern, which throws the ball more than all but four teams in the nation, and more than any other G5 team, doesn't really have recourse but to throw into it and hope for the best.

Georgia Southern has been one of the nation's best stories this season, going 5-4 in Year 1 of HC Clay Helton's transformation from the triple-option to the Air Raid. But GSU has benefited from luck, posting a mere 3.4 second-order wins (-1.6). GSU was outplayed in each of the last two wins (combined 59% win expectancy).

Louisiana, meanwhile, has been a bit better than its 4-5 record, with 4.3 second-order wins (+0.3). I'm not convinced that GSU is the better team, and this is a really bad matchup for them.

The pick: Louisiana -3.5

Navy (+15.5) vs. Notre Dame
ATL: ND -14.4

In a letdown spot off a huge win over Clemson, Notre Dame is about to play a team it doesn't match up well with.

The Irish's defense is very good against the pass - a wasted strength in this matchup - but it struggles mightily against the run (No. 85 success rate, No. 93 opportunity rate). Navy's triple-option offense will be able to nick that generous run defense with paper cuts all afternoon.

On the other side of the ball, Navy's fatal flaw is its lack of athleticism in the secondary. Teams with dangerous outside receivers and competent quarterback play eat Navy alive. But Navy has a very good run defense.

Since turning the offense over to QB2 Drew Pyne, Notre Dame has turned extremely run-heavy. The Irish are one of the 15-most run-happy non-option teams in the nation. Notre Dame doesn't have much skill on the offensive perimeter.

Navy can pick on Notre Dame's defensive weakness, and the Midshipmen's good run defense should slow down Notre Dame's bully-ball routine. In a classic letdown spot against a team it doesn't match up well with, we think Notre Dame will get a legitimate scare in Baltimore on Saturday.

The pick: Navy +15.5

Iowa State (-1) at Oklahoma State
ATL: ISU -3.4

Oklahoma State is shot. The Pokes are staying mum on the injury status of QB Spencer Sanders and his problematic throwing shoulder. Rumors have been swirling this week that Sanders is out for the season. OSU HC Mike Gundy wouldn't tell us either way.

But I found it interesting this week that Gundy was fielding more questions about his backup QBs Gunnar Gundy and Garret Rangel while starting to talk about the future of the position. Gundy said he's likely to split snaps between Rangel-Gundy if Sanders is out longer, comparing the situation to when he platooned JW Walsh and Clint Chelf.

Gundy even humored questions about if Sanders would return next season - you couldn't help but infer from the vibe that Sanders is nowhere close to returning. Unfortunately for Okie State, their injury list stretches far longer than that - with the RB, WR, OL, and S positions particularly affected.

Last week against Kansas, Oklahoma State threw interceptions on its first two drives, struggled to get a push in the run game, found themselves down 24-7 at halftime, and finished with four turnovers resulting in 14 KU points. For one afternoon, Okie State's defense turned KU RB Devin Neal into Gale Sayers, with Neal dropping 334 yards from scrimmage

Oklahoma State's injuries are one thing. The lack of effort over the past two weeks has been startling. The Pokes, who started 6-1, with the only loss by a field goal to TCU, were annihilated by a combined 85-16 score by Kansas State and Kansas in the last two games. Already bowl eligible, the Pokes can't wait for the regular season to be over.

Iowa State must win 2-of-3 games to go bowling, with Texas Tech and TCU coming after Oklahoma State. If the Cyclones want to go bowling, they must win this game. They will.

The pick: Iowa State -1

Southern Miss (+5.5) at Coastal Carolina
ATL: USM -0.2

Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall is out for 3-6 weeks with a foot injury suffered in last week's 35-28 win over Appalachian State. McCall is one of the 10-most valuable players in the nation to his team. Very few players in the FBS are worth as many points on the spread.

The Chants returned some of the least experience of any FBS team this year. But they had McCall. The two-time Sun Belt Player of the Year led a flawed roster to an 8-1 start by throwing for 2,314 yards and a sterling 21/1 TD/INT rate while adding four more TD on the ground.

Coastal Carolina has been one of the nation's luckiest teams, with only 6.0 (-2.0) second-order wins. With McCall not around to steal victories from the jaws of defeat, Coastal Carolina is about to get hit with a one-two punch of attrition and regression.

Coastal does have a serviceable veteran backup in Bryce Carpenter. But whereas McCall, an NFL prospect, was able to mitigate Coastal's myriad weaknesses, Carpenter is more of a paint-by-numbers system manager.

This isn't an ideal matchup for Carpenter. Southern Miss' stout defense ranks No. 44 SP+. It's particularly good at keeping opposing offenses off schedule (No. 26 success rate against the rush, No. 23 success rate against the pass) and creating havoc (No. 11 havoc rate, No. 12 sack rate).

If Southern Miss can shut down Coastal's running game, it's going to force Carpenter to try to beat the Eagles from the pocket under constant duress. Southern Miss, 5-4, is one victory from bowl eligibility. The Eagles get it by upsetting the McCall-less Chants.

The pick: Southern Miss +5.5

UAB (-5.5) vs. North Texas
ATL: UAB -7.8

UAB QB Dylan Hopkins returned to practice on Tuesday. Afterward, UAB HC Bryant Vincent told reporters that Hopkins is fully healthy and will start Saturday against North Texas.

This is huge news for the Blazers, whose season was torpedoed last month when Hopkins was knocked out of the WKU game on the second play of the second drive with a concussion. UAB's offense went into the tank from there.

The Blazers subsequently lost three straight to fall to 4-5. UAB has not finished with less than six wins since 2014 - the season before the administration blew up the football program. Every full season from their return in 2017 through last year, UAB won a minimum of eight games.

So we've got a proud program in a do-or-die situation to reach bowl eligibility - next week brings a road trip to LSU before finishing with Louisiana Tech - that is returning to full strength.

This is a good situational spot, and UAB matches up well. North Texas' balanced spread offense forces opponents to tackle in space. If you can't, the Mean Green will play bully for the afternoon. If you can, you tie UNT's hands behind its back.

UAB's defense ranks No. 15 in tackling rate. UAB's awesome G5 pass defense matches up well against UNT QB Austin Aune, who has thrown for 2,753 yards with a 28/11 TD/INT rate this year. He's flattered by those numbers. Aune's 21/16 PFF big-time throws against turnover-worthy plays are more indicative of his play.

Aune doesn't know what he's getting into here. North Texas has faced a comical procession of horrible defenses. And I do mean comical. UNT has played only three opponents with top-100 SP+ defenses - UTEP, FAU, and WKU - and none in the top 75. Here's the thing about UTEP, FAU, and WKU: They all have horrid pass defenses. They're in the top 100 SP+ because of their run defenses.

I haven't fully quantified this, but it seems very likely that Austin Aune has faced the worst procession of pass defenses of any quarterback in the nation. UAB's above-average FBS pass defense will be, by an enormous margin, the best pass defense he's faced all year. I expect multiple Aune interceptions.

And unfortunately for Aune, UNT's run game may not be clicking as usual. North Texas was without lead RBs Oscar Adaway and Isaiah Johnson for last Saturday’s game versus Florida International. Their statuses for this game are up-in-the-air.

UAB lets off some steam by whipping UNT by double-digits.

The pick: UAB -5.5

South Carolina (+8.5) at Florida
ATL: UF -4.1

South Carolina RB MarShawn Lloyd returned to practice this week and, according to HC Shane Beamer, has looked good and will play on Saturday. Lloyd is the best thing the Gamecocks' offense has going for it, a legitimately dangerous NFL prospect.

Lloyd's return is bad news for Florida's atrocious run defense (No. 116 success rate, No. 80 explosiveness). Lloyd will keep South Carolina from the third-and-long scenarios it can struggle in.

On the other side, Florida's entire offense is built around the explosion. The Gators rank a poor No. 93 in success rate but are elite at No. 2 in marginal explosiveness. Unfortunately for the Gators, the makeup of the Gamecocks' defense lines up really well to contend with that.

While you can nick the Gamecocks all day - No. 115 success rate on defense - you aren't getting explosive plays on them (No. 7 marginal explosiveness, No. 2 IsoPPP). That means that Florida must be patient and meticulous in working the ball up the field, not exactly their MO.

Furthermore, South Carolina has now fully evolved into Beamer Ball, with the nation's No. 1 special teams per SP+. Not only are the enormous game-changing plays on the table, but the Gamecocks will make sure Florida not only has to work for their yards but start the journey further back than they're accustomed to.

South Carolina is a live 'dog in Gainesville on Saturday.

The pick: South Carolina +8.5

Wyoming (-8.5) at Colorado State
ATL: Wyoming -11.7

CSU QB Clay Millen exited the last game early with an injury and is iffy to play. The Rams don't match up well, anyway. But they're up Schitt's Creek without a paddle against Wyoming if Millen doesn’t play.

Colorado State's offensive line very well may be the nation's worst. Last week, against San Jose State, Millen was sacked nine times before his body finally gave out. Millen, at least, is an FBS-caliber quarterback. CSU doesn't have a playable backup behind him.

Wyoming's defensive line ranks No. 6 in havoc rate. It will live in the backfield against CSU's paper-mache OL. When CSU isn't getting sacked, it gives away yards via penalties.

Penalties have also been an issue for CSU. Wyoming has lost the 12th-least yards to penalties per game this fall. CSU has been penalized the 13th-most YPG. By average, CSU will cede more than 30 free yards to Wyoming on Saturday.

Wyoming is 6-3 with plenty to play for. The Cowboys can get overwhelmed by more talented teams. But they take care of business against the bad ones. Wyoming is 5-1 against teams outside top-75 SP+ and has beaten every team ranked outside the top 100 SP+ by 13-or-more points.

Colorado State ranks No. 127 SP+. And while CSU has been beaten up by injuries all year, Wyoming comes in fresh off a bye. If Millen doesn't play, Wyoming may be able to name the final margin. Even if he does, we like Wyoming by double digits.

The pick: Wyoming -8.5

Washington (+13.5) at Oregon
ATL: Oregon -12.2

Washington is now one of the most pass-happy and most pass-effective teams in the P5 (No. 6 success rate). Oregon's horrific pass defense (No. 107 success rate, No. 84 marginal explosiveness) should allow Washington to hang around this bloated number.

And even if Oregon deals with Washington's attack better than I anticipate and is up by a margin heading into the fourth quarter, the amount of points we're working with on the Huskies side opens the backdoor wide-open for a late cover.

The pick: Washington +13.5

Ole Miss (+12) vs. Alabama
ATL: Bama -7.8

This is a really good buy-low spot on Mississippi and a bad situational spot for Alabama. Alabama is still getting the Alabama tax in the market. At this point, it's just free points on the opponent - my system says we're getting four-plus free points on the spread with Ole Miss.

The Tide are in a deflation spot after their season goals were nuked following Loss No. 2 last week. On the road, where Bama has struggled mightily since the start of last season. The Tide takes to it again here in a back-to-back travel spot. Alabama is 2-6 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

On the field, Ole Miss' awesome run game will tee off on underachieving Bama front seven. And because of the Rebels' insane backfield depth, the effectiveness won't wear off in the second half.

It's worth noting that nobody knows Nick Saban's strategic tendencies like his former OC, Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin. We like the Rebs to take advantage of this home bounceback spot and put a scare into Alabama.

The pick: Mississippi +12

Louisiana-Monroe (+14) at Georgia State
ATL: GSU -11.9

UL-Monroe has a horrid pass defense, but it's not going to come into play as much in this matchup because Georgia State runs as much as any non-option team. ULM's run defense is far better than its pass defense.

When ULM has the ball, the explosive passes that Georgia State surrenders will be there. Which is good, because ULM's offense relies on those to generate offense.

ULM slows GSU's ground game enough and generates enough explosive plays to stay within this number.

The pick: Louisiana-Monroe +14

South Florida (+17.5) vs. SMU
ATL: SMU -14.6

Dead-cat bounce special. South Florida fired former HC Jeff Scott and DC Bob Shoop on Sunday, the morning after the embarrassing 54-28 loss to Temple.

Each of the past two weeks in my Best Bets column, I've backed a team coming off firing their HC - first Charlotte, then Auburn. Charlotte upset Rice as +17 underdogs, while Auburn pushed Mississippi State to OT as +13 underdogs before succumbing by a field goal in a breezy cover this past Saturday.

This has been a profitable system in recent years and is again. Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Colorado, Charlotte, and Auburn were 8-28 ATS (22.2%) before firing their respective head coaches. The week after, those teams went 5-2 ATS (71.4%) with three outright upsets as +14.5-or-more 'dogs.

On the SMU side, the Ponies are currently very thin in the backfield. SMU was without top RBs Camar Wheaton and Tre Siggers once again on Saturday. The Ponies obviously didn't need the pair to hang 77 points on Houston. But you wonder how long SMU can shoulder the absences if both remain out. And you wonder if a letdown performance is coming after that track meet in this sleepy spot against a down opponent.

We're holding our noses and jumping again with what has been a profitable system.

The pick: South Florida +17.5

Connecticut vs. Liberty u45.5

Liberty's post-Malik Willis success has been spurred by an unthinkably feisty defense. Last week, the Flames, starting their QB3 who was unable to practice all week because of the flu, controlled and then staved-off Arkansas in a startling upset.

Speaking of the unthinkable, this is the first of two cracks that UConn HC Jim Mora Jr. will have at doing the impossible: Dragging this talent-less UConn team to bowl eligibility. The Huskies, 5-5 with Army to come, will be locked in.

Beyond starting their QB3 again, here's the problem for Liberty's offense against UConn: The Flames' playground-style offense eschews efficiency to fish for big plays. But UConn's defense is designed to take those away and does. Liberty's offense will need to be more conservative and prudent than it is designed to be to consistently move the ball.

On the other side, UConn's offense may be able to rip off a few long runs against a Liberty defense that cedes them - but that's no guarantee based on the running backs the injury-riddled Huskies still have active. Outside of that, it's difficult to envision how UConn will get yards.

The pick: Liberty-UConn UNDER 45.5

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