Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 9 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 9 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 9 College Football Power Rankings >>

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

2022: 45-40-2 ATS (52.9%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 9 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 9 College Football Power Rankings >>

2022: 45-40-2 ATS (52.9%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 9 Bets (2022)

A-tempo	H-tempo	Away	Home	ATL	ATT	Spread	Value	Total	Value	Day	CST
66	101	Virginia Tech	North Carolina St.	-10.8	42.5	-13.5	2.7	39.5	3.0	Thursday	6:30 PM
67	71	Louisiana	Southern Miss	-1.5	38.5	-1	-0.5	43	-4.5	Thursday	6:30 PM
89	75	Utah	Washington St.	6.0	50	7	-1.0	55	-5.0	Thursday	9:00 PM
74	64	East Carolina	Brigham Young	4.3	71	-3.5	7.8	62	9.0	Friday	7:00 PM
73	35	Louisiana Tech	Florida International	8.0	61.5	7	1.0	57.5	4.0	Friday	7:00 PM
9	47	Arkansas	Auburn	0.9	61.5	3.5	-2.6	62	-0.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
100	51	Ohio St.	Penn St.	13.9	61.5	15	-1.1	61	0.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
3	103	Oklahoma	Iowa St.	-0.7	56.5	1.5	-2.2	55.5	1.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
112	92	Boston College	Connecticut	10.3	44.5	8	2.3	46.5	-2.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
22	59	Georgia Tech	Florida St.	-22.5	47	-24.5	2.0	47.5	-0.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
23	55	Toledo	Eastern Michigan	6.2	57	7	-0.8	56	1.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
91	93	Notre Dame	Syracuse	1.5	45.5	-2.5	4.0	48	-2.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
123	80	Miami (OH)	Akron	11.9	51.5	8.5	3.4	48	3.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
83	40	TCU	West Virginia	6.4	68	7.5	-1.1	69	-1.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
76	36	South Florida	Houston	-17.7	68.5	-17.5	-0.2	61.5	7.0	Saturday	11:00 AM
44	34	Miami (FL)	Virginia	4.3	57.5	2	2.3	48	9.5	Saturday	11:30 AM
86	129	Charlotte	Rice	-13.7	69.5	-17	3.3	60.5	9.0	Saturday	1:00 PM
102	125	Rutgers	Minnesota	-13.8	48	-14	0.2	41	7.0	Saturday	1:30 PM
31	4	Old Dominion	Georgia St.	-2.9	54.5	-3.5	0.6	56.5	-2.0	Saturday	2:00 PM
48	106	Oregon	California	16.6	59	17	-0.4	58	1.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
77	130	Florida	Georgia	-21.7	60.5	-22.5	0.8	56.5	4.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
7	81	Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	-5.1	48	-1.5	-3.6	56.5	-8.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
84	26	Cincinnati	UCF	0.2	58.5	1	-0.8	56	2.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
6	49	SMU	Tulsa	1.3	66	2.5	-1.2	64.5	1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
58	24	Illinois	Nebraska	4.7	51	7.5	-2.8	50.5	0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
94	79	New Mexico St.	Massachusetts	0.7	51	2.5	-1.8	38.5	12.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
19	46	Wake Forest	Louisville	0.0	69	4	-4.0	63	6.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
13	122	Northwestern	Iowa	-15.0	36	-10.5	-4.5	37.5	-1.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
50	25	Temple	Navy	-9.8	43.5	-13.5	3.7	40.5	3.0	Saturday	2:30 PM
14	39	North Texas	Western Kentucky	-12.5	72.5	-10	-2.5	69	3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
60	70	Missouri	South Carolina	-2.6	51	-4	1.4	46.5	4.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
65	98	South Alabama	Arkansas St.	7.1	50.5	10	-2.9	55	-4.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
90	37	USC	Arizona	17.4	73.5	15	2.4	76.5	-3.0	Saturday	5:00 PM
131	2	Kentucky	Tennessee	-7.8	70.5	-12.5	4.7	63.5	7.0	Saturday	6:00 PM
111	33	Coastal Carolina	Marshall	-6.8	64	-2	-4.8	55.5	8.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
109	16	UAB	Florida Atlantic	8.1	47.5	5	3.1	48	-0.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
127	105	Colorado St.	Boise St.	-25.9	41.5	-27.5	1.6	43	-1.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
1	124	Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-1.4	50	2.5	-3.9	55.5	-5.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
116	56	Arizona St.	Colorado	17.7	47	13.5	4.2	46.5	0.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
32	121	Michigan St.	Michigan	-18.5	62.5	-22.5	4.0	55	7.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
52	12	Baylor	Texas Tech	-1.2	61	-2.5	1.3	62.5	-1.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
114	20	Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-5.4	80	-3	-2.4	64.5	15.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
21	110	Middle Tennessee	UTEP	2.7	54.5	-2	4.7	52	2.5	Saturday	8:00 PM
120	85	San Diego St.	Fresno St.	-6.3	41.5	-8.5	2.2	40.5	1.0	Saturday	9:30 PM
41	115	Nevada	San Jose St.	-23.1	53	-24.5	1.4	44	9.0	Saturday	9:30 PM
53	18	Stanford	UCLA	-13.1	67.5	-16.5	3.4	66	1.5	Saturday	9:30 PM
87	68	Wyoming	Hawai’i	12.5	48.5	11.5	1.0	50	-1.5	Saturday	10:59 PM

East Carolina (+3.5) at Brigham Young (Friday)
ATL: ECU -4.3

Last week, I opposed multiple people in the industry I respect to back ECU +5 against UCF. My handicap suggested the Pirates matched up exceedingly well with the Knights. ECU led 17-3 at halftime and won 34-13.

This week, we return to the well. Once again, ECU is being undervalued by the market in a game it matches up well in. That game happens to be against BYU, objectively one of the most overvalued teams in the market all season.

This spread suggests the market hasn't adequately upgraded ECU nor adequately downgraded BYU. ECU's +2.9 cover PPG against the spread is top-40 nationally, while BYU's -9.3 cover PPG is fourth-worst in the entire nation.

ECU is 5-3 with 5.7 (+0.7) second-order wins. ECU has only had one poor performance all season - a loss at 7-1 Tulane. ECU finished its other-two losses - 21-20 against full-strength NC State and 23-20 against Navy - with postgame win expectancies of 50% and 78%, respectively.

BYU, meanwhile, has not finished with a postgame win expectancy above 10% since September. The Cougars have not been competitive in three-consecutive losses to Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Liberty. Last week's showing at Liberty was particularly galling. Or shall we say no-showing?

BYU allowed the Flames' third-string quarterback, a veteran who had never shown anything in his career, to go 24-for-29 for 247 yards and two TD through the air with another 47 yards on the ground. That was the first time in Liberty QB3 Johnathan Bennett's career that he'd thrown for more than 200 yards against an FBS opponent. UMass held Bennett to 183 passing yards earlier this season. Akron held him to 152. BYU said: Hold my beer.

BYU's pass defense is a travesty, ranking No. 123 in success rate. And it now faces an ECU passing offense that ranks No. 18 in success rate. BYU's defense ranks No. 124 in success rate overall, which means it doesn't force punts. ECU's offense ranks No. 8 in avoiding three-and-outs.

ECU's awesome run defense is going to wipe out BYU's mediocre ground game. BYU will be able to throw on ECU's pass defense, the weakness of the Pirates' team. But whereas ECU can be multiple offensively in this game, BYU has only the one recourse (for whatever it's worth: two of BYU QB Jaren Hall's three 300-yard games this year have come in losses).

We're calling for ECU to pull off its second-consecutive outright upset. My system says it won't be an upset at all.

The pick: ECU +3.5

Kentucky (+12.5) at Tennessee
ATL: Tennessee -7.8

Tennessee has been awesome to bettors this year, going 6-1 ATS. They've covered in myriad circumstances. The Vols covered all three games when installed as 35-plus point favorites. They upset Alabama as an 8.5-point 'dog. They blew out LSU as a short 'fav. The Vols have overcome poor situational spots to keep cashing.

But we're going to step onto the tracks against this cash cow this weekend anyway.

Kentucky has quietly been an awesome investment this season themselves, going 5-2 ATS. And here's the crazy thing: This will be the first time all year where Kentucky will have both QB Will Levis and RB Chris Rodriguez active and 100-percent healthy in the same game.

A turf-toe injury kept Levis out of a loss to South Carolina, neutering the offense. UK's only other loss was a 22-19 setback to Ole Miss where the Wildcats missed two extra point attempts and a 39-yard field goal, and had a potential game-winning TD pass in the final minute nullified by an illegal-motion penalty.

The Wildcats weathered Rodriguez's four-game suspension at the beginning of the season and Levis' painful turf toe injury to reach 5-2 against a top-35 SOS. Now we're about to see them at full-strength for the first time in 2022.

Levis is going to feast against this terrible Tennessee pass defense. In its last-four games, one of them against an FCS opponent, the Vols have allowed every opposing quarterback to hit at least 300-yards passing, with two of them going over 400.

Tennessee has a good run defense that should frustrate Rodriguez. But this spot sets up as an all-time draft showcase opportunity for Levis, and if he doesn't take advantage with a bonanza game, it would be stunning.

What Kentucky needs to do, then, to put a scare into Tennessee is force that mighty Vols offense to punt more than usual. Tennessee averages only 1.4 punts per game. Kentucky's defense ranks No. 11 in success rate against both the run and the pass. The Wildcats' defense ranks No. 6 SP+ overall. It would be equally stunning if Tennessee isn't forced into more than double their punt per game output.

Kentucky, which plays at the slowest pace in the nation, will give its defense adequate time to rest in-between plays while limiting the total amount of plays Tennessee is able to run. Kentucky comes in fresh as a daisy off a bye.

I like the Wildcats to keep this one close late into the fourth quarter. The way UK plays gives it a puncher's chance of knocking Tennessee from the ranks of the unbeaten. But getting 12.5-points is more than enough leeway for us to comfortably invest.

The pick: Kentucky +12.5

Iowa State (+1.5) vs. Oklahoma
ATL: ISU -0.7

Iowa State has lost four-straight. Oklahoma seemed to get back on track in its last game, a 52-42 win against Kansas. But this tough-as-nails Cyclones team feels like a terrible matchup for this cotton-soft Sooners outfit.

Iowa State has played a top-20 SOS but has not yet been beaten by more than seven points. Since HC Matt Campbell's second year, ISU has been beaten by 17 points once, and never by more. Even when out-gunned, ISU doesn't get overwhelmed, it keeps games close.

When OU QB Dillon Gabriel has been healthy, the Sooners have been able to overcome bouts of offensive inefficiency through explosive plays. That isn't likely to be an option on Saturday: Iowa State's defense ranks No. 3 in IsoPPP, a Bill Connelly metric measuring per-play value. They 'Clones don't cede long offensive gains. You can't beat them that way.

Oklahoma RB Eric Gray is averaging a hair less than 100 rushing YPG. He isn't likely to crack the century mark against ISU's stout run defense. Yards should be there for Gabriel if he's willing to take the underneath stuff ISU's zone-coverage will give up. But though you can nick ISU up the field in this way, the Cyclones' defense constricts in scoring opportunities, ranking No. 14 in suppressing points.

Iowa State's No. 74 SP+ offense isn't very good, granted. But OU's pass defense is going to have all kinds of problems with star ISU WR Xavier Hutchinson. And if ISU's defense is doing its job, ISU will do what it always does in these situations - take what you give it, and force you to tackle.

OU's defense is as generous as it gets in those regards, including a No. 123 standing in tackling success rate. Hutchinson, by the way, is top-20 nationally among receivers in both PFF receiving grade and missed tackles forced.

My handicap suggests that the most successful thing both offenses will do is the short- and intermediate-passing games, while both running games could play down. So an additional angle on this game is hunting for overs on QB completions and WR receptions on both sides, while hitting the unders on rushing yardage for each lead back.

Either way, we see the Cyclones pulling off the small home upset. And I'm contractually obligated to mention that ISU HC Matt Campbell is 31-17 (64.6%) ATS an underdog, and 5-1-1 ATS career against Oklahoma.

The pick: Iowa State +1.5

Arizona State (-13.5) at Colorado
ATL: ASU -17.7

Arizona State began the season 1-3 ATS and 1-3 SU. Since the calendar flipped to October, ASU is 3-0 ATS, with one outright upset as a double-digit underdog.

ASU interim HC Shaun Aguano appears to be taking full-advantage of this open audition for future jobs. He's changed numerous things since the firing of former HC Herm Edwards. Most recently, Aguano took over play-calling duties after a series of wonky schematic decisions led to a 15-14 loss to Stanford.

Colorado has also benefited from a coaching change - most have*. Or at least the Buffs did for one game. After upsetting Cal, Colorado returned to being Colorado last time out against Oregon State. The Buffs have finished with a 0% postame win expectancy in every game this season outside of the Cal blip.

Arizona State's strong running game - the best thing either team will bring to the field Saturday - will tee off on Colorado's horrific run defense (No. 129 success rate, No. 117 marginal explosiveness). Meanwhile, it's hard to see CU's feeble offense - which hasn't scored more than 20 points in any game - scoring much. In its three-previous games against SP+ defenses ranked in ASU's neighborhood, Colorado averaged 13.3 PPG.

Any spread beneath ASU -14 is too low.

The pick: Arizona State -13.5

Charlotte (+17) at Rice
ATL: Rice -13.7

Speaking of fired coaches!

Nobody wants to back Charlotte after it has burned bettors all season and just fired HC Will Healy. But recent history suggests that Healy's firing is good news for Charlotte's prospects against the number, not bad.

Somewhere along the way, Healy's message started to get tuned out. After he started 13-10 at the school, he finished 2-12 with a procession of blowout losses. Below are updated "dead-cat bounce" standings showing how Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, and Colorado cumulatively did against the number before and after firing their head coaches:

•Before firing HC: 4-16 ATS
•Since firing HC: 10-6 ATS
•Week after firing HC: 3-2 ATS with two outright upsets (both as +14.5-or-more 'dogs)

And for whatever it's worth: The NFL's Carolina Panthers upset the Bucs 21-3 as 13-point underdogs on Sunday after firing Matt Rhule.

These results, in addition to my adjusted spread above showing value on the 49ers, suggest the Rice-Charlotte spread is a couple points too high. Especially since Rice, which plays at a snail's pace, doesn't exactly profile as a team you'd feel comfortable laying over three-possessions of points with. Rice has only beaten one FBS team by more than 12 the past three seasons.

The pick: Charlotte +17

Middle Tennessee (+2) at UTEP
ATL: MTSU -2.7

A month ago, Middle Tennessee was the toast of college football after upsetting Miami to start 3-1. Since then, the Blue Raiders have lost three-straight. The market no longer trusts them.

But in all three, MTSU played a strong G5 team. The Blue Raiders didn't match up well with any of the three. MTSU's offense is small and shifty. It wants to beat you with timing and in space, because it can't beat you in a phonebooth.

On defense, MTSU is solid against the run, but gives up oodles of completions in the passing game in exchange for taking away explosive plays. Opponents with efficient passing games on offense that don't give up explosive passes on defense give MTSU trouble. This is why, for instance, we were on WKU -8.5 in MTSU's last game before the bye. WKU won 35-17.

UTEP is not that kind of team. The Miners' passing offense - No. 97 success rate, No. 122 completion percentage - is just as inefficient as MTSU's pass defense, nullifying the Blue Raiders' biggest defensive weakness.

And UTEP's defensive bugaboo of allowing explosive passing plays - No. 111 defensive passing marginal explosiveness - leaves it exposed to the huge aerial gains MTSU feasts on (No. 44). UTEP gives up completions in bunches, and it isn't great at tackling in space (No. 78).

MTSU gets on track by knocking off UTEP as a small road 'dog. Not only is this a matchup that suits the Blue Raiders, but my system says the wrong team is favored.

The pick: MTSU +2

Louisville vs. Wake Forest o63
ATT: 69

Can I interest you in the over of a game that will be played at ludicrous-speed* tempo between a pair of offenses that consistently generate explosive plays teeing off on leaky defenses that consistently get gouged for them?

*Shoutout to anyone that recognized this as a Space Balls joke.

The Cardinals' points figure to come off home runs in both the run and passing games. On the other side, Wake Forest will generate its own fair share of explosive plays, but Louisville will have the added impediment of not being able to keep Wake Forest's hyper-efficient offense off schedule.

This is one of only five games on the card this weekend between a top-20 tempo team (Wake Forest) against a top-50 tempo opponent (Louisville). There will be opportunities galore in a game that profiles to be competitive throughout - Wake -4 spread - and both offenses match up well to take advantage through explosive gains if nothing else.

The pick: Louisville-WF OVER 63

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh o64.5
ATT: 80

Money on the over has pushed this total up by a point since Monday. We agree with the movement, and don't think it's gone far enough yet. My system actually set the point total for this game at 80!

Long story short: UNC's stinky defense won't be able to keep Pitt's offense off schedule - the Panthers' punter can take the afternoon off - while Pitt's defense is going to be helpless stopping the barrage of UNC's explosive plays on offense.

Both offenses are vastly superior to the defenses they'll be facing. But more than that, each offense matches up very well on paper. And there's peace of mind in trusting these teams with "over" tickets. Each ranks in the top-25 nationally in PPG over the closing total.

The pick: UNC-Pitt OVER 64.5

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss u55.5
ATT: 50

Outside of ECU's upset of UCF, our best call last week was coupling LSU as a short home 'fav against Mississippi with the under.

The handicap of the side in this game proved tricky - we trust Ole Miss more, but they're in a deflation spot whereas A&M returns home after four-straight games away from Kyle Field - so we're going to pass on that and return to well with an under on a Rebels game.

Mississippi HC Lane Kiffin is known for breakneck offensive pace and high-scoring offenses. This year's team is still running hypo-tempo - No. 1 in the nation - but it is no longer a terrifying unit to defend.

Mostly because QB Jaxson Dart, a USC transfer, has underwhelmed. Dart has already thrown two more interceptions than he did last year as a true freshman at USC (in only 10 more attempts).

And while Dart threw only one interception in September against Ole Miss' cupcake non-conference schedule, he's thrown at least one in all four SEC games this month (five total). In the games against Kentucky, Auburn, and LSU, Dart completed a meager 51.5% of his passes while averaging 238.6 passing YPG.

Perhaps because of this, Ole Miss has swung to a run-heavy ethos. Only five non-option teams in the nation hand the ball off at a higher percentage than the Rebels. A&M's pass defense is awesome, further incentivizing Kiffin to keep the ball on the ground (and keep the clock running) on Saturday.

A&M's possessions will normalize the game's pace. The Aggies rank only No. 124 in adjusted pace, and they're incentivized to go even slower on Saturday to give their defense longer breaks between Ole Miss' possessions.

The Aggies will either be starting limited veteran QB Haynes King or raw true freshman QB Connor Wiegman behind center. A&M's quarterback issues and dearth of receiving talent following OW Ainas Smith's season-ending injury have neutered the aerial game. A&M's gameplan will be getting undersized but explosive RB Devon Achane the ball as much as possible. After every play, they'll huddle up and bleed the play clock for all it's worth.

I see a pass-averse, ground-heavy chessmatch coming between a pair of teams that have combined to go under point totals by an average of 7.5 PPG this season.

The pick: A&M-Mississippi UNDER 55.5

Iowa (-10.5) vs. Northwestern
ATL: Iowa -15.0

Iowa's offense is a joke, and the Hawkeyes traditionally have been bad bets as double-digit favorites.

But I'm backing the Hawkeyes on principle, here. My system says we're getting 4.5-points of line value to fade this wretched Northwestern team.

It's difficult to envision how the Wildcats will score against Iowa's top-ranked defense, especially since Northwestern can expect to start in horrible field position throughout courtesy of Iowa's top-10 special teams unit.

The pick: Iowa -10.5

Miami (OH) (-8.5) at Akron
ATL: Miami -11.9

We usually give out 10 picks in the column, but we're giving out a bonus one today. As with the Hawkeyes, you'll have to hold your nose buying the ticket on a favorite you don't trust. And as with the Iowa-Northwestern game, I'm doing so anyway due to circumstance and context.

The market has categorically not adjusted for Miami getting starting QB Brett Gabbert back. Gabbert was able to knock off the rust from his extended absence in last week's disappointing loss to WMU.

But that loss should have Miami locked in for this game against bottom-feeder Akron. Akron's secondary stinks, and it has no pass-rush to aid it - fortunate in our case considering Miami's issues protecting the QB this season.

And on the other side of the ball, Miami's solid defense isn't going to have any problems shutting down Akron's one-dimensional offense. RedHawks roll to a double-digit win.

The pick: Miami -8.5

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