Best NCAA Tournament Bets for Round 1 (2026 March Madness)

I’m taking a look at the three best NCAA Tournament bets for Round 1 using our premium betting systems. Let’s take a look at the potential winners, and I hope you’ll consider tailing the three best bets below.

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Round 1’s Best NCAA Tournament Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit

Point Spread Road Underdogs by 9.5 to 13 Pts

We’ve seen a 55.98% win rate and a 6.96% return on investment (ROI) on this trend with heavy action. Team catching points in this particular range have been extremely profitable.

High Point (30-4) is catching 10.5 points from Wisconsin (24-10). There are plenty of casual fans who have gotten wind of High Point’s high-scoring ways, as the Panthers rank No. 3 in the nation with 90 points per game (PPG). A lot of casual fans are backing High Point because of that high-octane offense. In recent seasons, the No. 12 vs. No. 15 matchup in the first round of the NCAA Tournament has produced plenty of straight-up upsets.

The Panthers (30-4) dominated the Big South Conference, although they were just 15-16 against the spread (ATS) this season. Believe it or not, High Point wasn’t an underdog at any point this season. Looking at neutral-site games, High Point was just 3-4 ATS this season.

For Wisconsin, as a favorite between 9.5 and 13 points, it was 2-1 ATS in that particular range. We don’t have a large sample size to go against Wisconsin, and we have no data to support High Point, other than the fact that it won 30 games this season and scores a lot of points. Sometimes you just have to trust the system, and we’ve seen throughout basketball that teams away from home catching this range of points have been very successful.

Pick: High Point +10.5 (-118)

Point Spread Road Underdogs by 9.5 to 13 Pts

On Thursday, we get another No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup, which fits in the 9.5 to 13-point underdog trend of this betting system. McNeese (28-5) and Vanderbilt (26-8) square off at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV in the South Region.

McNeese hasn’t been an underdog since December 29th at Michigan when it was catching 23.5 points. The Cowboys were way over their skis against the Wolverines, falling 112-71. It did win outright against George Washington on November 23rd in a neutral-site game as a 6.5-point underdog, which is the closest number we could find compared to this system. The Cowboys are 1-2 straight up (SU)/ATS in three games as an underdog this season.

Vanderbilt was favored by 11.5 points over Oklahoma on February 7th, and it lost outright, 92-91. Hmm. And, as a favorite of either 13 or 13.5 points, depending upon the shop, Vanderbilt topped LSU by just 11 points on January 10th.

McNeese is a popular play catching double digits against Wisconsin in another potential upset.

Pick: McNeese +11.5 (-115)

Low Vig Favorites Points Spread Underdog by 12.5 to 13 Pts

The ‘Low Vig Favorites Point Spread Underdog by 12.5 to 13 Pts’ betting system is hopping. The past five instances have ended up cashing, with a 101-60 record this season and a 19.83% ROI.

Which play fits the bill? It’s No. 13 Troy (22-11) vs. No. 4 Nebraska (26-6). The Trojans are catching 12.5 points, making them quite an attractive play.

Troy enters this game with four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS. The last time the Trojans were an underdog, they won 79-69 at home against Akron on February 7th in one of those bracket-buster kind of games. It is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in eight games this season, with five outright victories. That includes a 108-107 overtime win as a 14.5-point underdog at San Diego State on November 18th, which is close to fitting into this trend.

For Nebraska, it hasn’t been a favorite of 12.5 to 13 points this season, but as a double-digit favorite, the Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS. Troy is going to be a very popular play.

Pick: Troy +12.5 (-105)

More NCAA Tournament Picks

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe.