Looking for the best March Madness betting systems and betting trends? Well, I have you covered below. Here's a look at three high-performing systems that feature winning opportunities during the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Here are a few of our best NCAA Tournament bets for the Sweet 16.
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Best NCAA Tournament Bets: Sweet 16
(All recommendations are one unit unless stated otherwise)
High-Line Total Points Unders 145.5 to 148.5 Pts
Taking Unders in games with totals set between 145.5 and 148.5 has resulted in a 17.48% ROI and a 19.05-unit profit. This system is 67-42 this season, with a win rate of 61.47%.
Only one game fits this category in the Sweet 16: Texas vs. Purdue. The total for this game is set at 148.5, as both teams come in averaging over 82 points per game. What makes this play interesting is that both defenses are also allowing over 70 points per game, with Texas allowing 76.1.
That said, Texas has held three consecutive opponents to 71 or fewer points, while scoring 79 or fewer in four consecutive games. Meanwhile, Purdue has held six consecutive opponents, including Michigan, to 72 or fewer points. While Purdue has the best adjusted offensive rating according to KenPom, the Boilermakers' defense is good enough to slow Texas’s offense.
Duke Total Points Unders Angle
I highlighted this system when making my picks for Round 2, and if you tailed the play, then you found yourself a winner. In the second round, Duke and TCU combined for 139, with the total set at 140.5, as the Blue Devils held the TCU offense to just 58 points.
This system has a 25-11 record this season, resulting in a 32.56% ROI and an 11.72-unit profit. On Friday, the total for the Duke vs. St. John's game is set at 141.5, and for anyone who watched St. John's shoot against Kansas, it's hard not to like the Under here.
While St. John's is averaging 81.1 points per game, most of that production comes from the frontcourt. St. John's is shooting just 33.2% from 3-point territory, which ranks 225th in the country. Against Kansas, the Red Storm was 11-of-35 from deep, though all players other than Bryce Hopkins were just 5-of-26. Duke has the third-best scoring defense in the country. I'm very concerned for St. John's offense in this game.
Even Money to +145 Postseason Moneyline
Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan State all qualify for this system in the Sweet 16. While this system hasn't been overly effective from a wins and losses perspective, producing a record of just 7-6, it has still produced a 2.49-unit profit and a 19.15% ROI.
Michigan State and Iowa each have moneylines of +110 in their respective matchups. Iowa has already defeated Nebraska this season, and the Hawkeyes forced overtime in the second meeting. Meanwhile, Michigan State and UConn are essentially even when comparing key metrics, so in a coin-flip game, it may be worth taking a shot on the Spartans.
The biggest underdog that fits this system is Illinois. The Fighting Illini essentially have to play a road game against Houston, but they're still only 3.5-point underdogs with a moneyline of +136. Illinois has the second-most efficient offense according to KenPom. Can the offense master the nation's fourth-most efficient defense? In a strength-vs-strength matchup, the system says it’s worth a shot.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.