If we’ve learned anything from 2020, it’s how to roll with the punches. Fading Drew Lock was our lock of the week in Week 12; turns out, the poor guy didn’t even get a chance to prove us wrong after landing on the COVID list as a close contact to Jeff Driskel. With our Lock prop canceled for obvious reasons, our picks split one-and-one last week. We’ll try and get back to our winning ways with a new batch of props for the Week 13 slate.
Let’s get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 13. For this week's picks, we bounced between DraftKings and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to win you some money.
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The Prop: O/U 67.5 receiving yards for Justin Jefferson
Now is not the time to start fading Justin Jefferson.
The ascending star in Minnesota has been on a torrid streak in recent weeks as a featured piece of the Viking’s passing attack. Sure, Adam Thielen missing last week’s game due to COVID opened up more opportunity for Jefferson, partially explaining his 13-target, seven-reception outing against Carolina. But let’s give this kid some credit where it’s due. His talent shines through regardless of the personnel surrounding him.
For whatever it’s worth, Kirk Cousins is riding a bit of a hot streak himself, passing for better than 290 yards in each of his last three games. Heading into a match-up with a reeling Jacksonville defense this Sunday, Minnesota figures to have another successful week moving the football. Even with Thielen expected to return, there’s no reason to think Jefferson wouldn’t remain a central cog in this machine.
Developing into the weekly threat the Vikings drafted him to become, Jefferson has cleared this yardage total in each of his last three games. Though the Jaguars have been friendly to both ground and passing attacks of late, this feels like a clear hot-hand situation of which we would love to have a piece. We’re looking to ride Jefferson to another headline-worthy day in Week 13.
The Play: Justin Jefferson over 67.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112)
The Prop: O/U 33.5 rushing yards for Cam Akers
If not now, Sean McVay, when? What more does the most physically talented running back on the Los Angeles Rams roster need to do to earn the lead job?
The Rams drafted rookie runner Cam Akers in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft for a reason. That’s what I continue to tell myself as I attempt to parse out the touches in the Rams backfield on a week-to-week basis. Though Akers took his time emerging this season, he has broken a couple of massive runs for Los Angeles when the coach entrusted him with the football. In Week 12 against the 49ers, Akers ran for 84 yards on nine carries, including one tote on which he broke free for an impressive 61-yard dash in the third quarter. The 21-year-old possesses game-breaking potential on a scale not found within his backfield-mates, Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown.
Will Akers’ latest triumph convince his coach to grant him the bulk of the backfield touches this week against Arizona? Honestly, probably not. McVay has employed a commitment to the RBBC approach that would make even Kyle Shanahan blush. Shame on his house, though, if McVay doesn’t at least permit the rookie the dozen-or-so carries it should take for him to blast beyond this week’s yardage prop. We like the kid, even in a tough match-up against a solid Cardinals run defense.
I recognize I’m breaking my own rule by planting my flag on a Rams running back. Gulp. It means I’m trusting Sean McVay to do the right thing, a scary proposition for even the most reckless gambler. Approach this prop with the ultimate degree of caution, but recognize it may only take Akers breaking one big run to clear attainable yardage total Sunday afternoon.
The Play: Cam Akers over 33.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The Prop: O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns for Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no Trubisky.
The current quarterback of the Chicago Bears is not particularly good. He’s not particularly efficient. But I’ll be darned if he’s not playing the Lions in Week 13. The stage is set for a pity-inspiring grudge match between divisional foes this Sunday. Technically the Bears are still in contention for a spot in the playoffs. Hopefully, their quarterback acts like it.
There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Bears’ offense. Yet, if there were a friendly circumstance for the unit to produce, this has got to be it. The Lions have allowed rushing success, passing success, all kinds of success to opposing offenses this year. When Trubisky faced the Detroit defense on the road in Week 1, he tossed three touchdown passes. It hasn’t always been pretty for the 2017 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall selection, but Trubisky has passed for at least two scores in three of his four starts this season.
Some way or another, he usually finds the production. Or the production finds him, who knows. You’d be forgiven if you desired to place this wager with a paper bag covering your head. But the Lions stink. Trubisky should have a perfectly adequate day at the office en route to a winning prop–at even money, no less.
The Play: Mitchell Trubisky over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at BetMGM)
Bonus Prop of the Week
If you haven’t been watching the Saints offense too closely over the past couple of weeks, nobody could blame you. It’s not exactly an overflowing fountain of excitement with Taysom Hill behind center. But from a betting perspective, I want to call attention (again) to the bizarre 180-degree shift in Alvin Kamara’s role of late. The versatile 25-year-old was an exceptional contributor for the first many weeks of the season, but something changed the moment New Orleans named Hill the new signal-caller. Over the past two games, Kamara has caught one total pass on three targets, with Latavius Murray out-touching him handily.
Last week, we nailed down a profitable return on the under 3.5 for Kamara’s reception total. This week, BetMGM has the line at plus-money again, with the total at over/under 2.5 receptions (+120). We weren’t crazy about wasting space stumping for a prop we already discussed a week ago. Still, we felt compelled to mention that we’re still comfortable fading Kamara’s involvement in the passing game for another week, provided Hill continues taking the snaps at QB. Oh, and if you feel crazy for wanting to bench Kamara for your fantasy team, you’re not. Just pray to the fantasy gods for Drew Brees’ swift return to the Saint’s starting lineup.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.