Last week was another strong one, as we easily cashed two of our three props (thanks for nothing, Trubisky). We also hit on a rare bonus prop by fading Alvin Kamara's reception total for the second straight week. Can we keep the good times rolling into this week's slate of games? I have no earthly idea.
Let's get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 14. For this week's picks, DraftKings had the most favorable odds to win you some money.
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The Prop: O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns for Justin Herbert (LAC)
What happened to Justin Herbert last Sunday? The rookie hit the wall hard as the Patriots shut out his Chargers last week. A sign of struggles to come? I'm willing to bet it was just an example of the mastery of Bill Belichick against a talented, but inexperienced, player. Herbert has still cemented himself as one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league; one bad game against a brilliant head coach doesn't change that.
A bounce-back effort is on tap for the rookie gunslinger against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. Though the Falcons have improved defensively from the early days of the season when they were considered a plus-match-up for opposing offenses, Atlanta still allowed Taysom Hill of all people to throw for two touchdowns last week. Herbert comes into this game with something to prove, and I expect him to do precisely that.
The juice on this prop is heavy, but I would've bet the line even at 2.5 passing scores. Herbert clears this mark with ease in an upset bid for Los Angeles.
The Play: Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-155 at DraftKings)
The Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for T.Y. Hilton (IND)
The reports of T.Y. Hilton's demise were greatly exaggerated.
The veteran wideout took his sweet time this season establishing a rapport with new Colts quarterback Philip Rivers. Prior to Week 12, Hilton had just one game with better than 53 receiving yards. He hadn't scored a touchdown all season. But he's turned it around over the past two weeks, logging 12 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns, drawing some renewed attention after being such a non-factor for the bulk of the year.
Hilton's two recent boom games came against generous defenses in the Titans and Texans, which calls to question whether his newfound production is sustainable. Hilton will still battle an emerging Michael Pittman Jr. for Rivers' attention, but the veteran quarterback doesn’t seek out the home run ball very frequently. When healthy, Hilton is the perfect style of player to fill the intermediate-passing Keenan Allen role for Rivers. It took a while, but Hilton finally showcased that ideal last week, drawing 11 targets in a monster performance.
Next on tap for Indy is the Las Vegas Raiders–not exactly a frightening foe on defense these days, considering the winless Jets just put 28 on the board against them. Rivers should exploit the Raiders' weaknesses more effectively than Sam Darnold did, and Hilton should remain a key target in this game. The line is a little inflated with Hilton coming off two straight strong games, but I like the opportunity to wager on Hilton's success at even money this week.
The Play: T.Y. Hilton over 4.5 receptions (+100 at DraftKings)
The Prop: O/U 55.5 rushing yards for Giovani Bernard (CIN)
Okay, the Cowboys defense is pretty bad, but I'm not sure it's bad enough to make Giovani Bernard look like a successful rusher of the football. At least not behind a Bengals offensive line that ruined Joe Burrow's knee in like four different ways.
Bernard entered into a more prominent role in the Bengals offense this year due to the lingering Joe Mixon foot injury. But, as has been the case for virtually every element of this Cincinnati team since Burrow went down a few weeks ago, Bernard-led run game hasn't been especially effective.
Here are Bernard's rushing totals over the past four games: 30, 18, 32, 30. Not very inspiring, to say the least. Another factor working against Bernard is the game script. Given their struggles defensively, the Bengals are consistently playing from behind. That's not a recipe for ground-and-pound. Though this line suggests some degree of faith that Cincinnati will hang with Dallas long enough to keep the run game alive, I'm not convinced the Bengals will hold down Andy Dalton with the revenge-game narrative in play. The Cowboys offense should have a nice day, leaving Bernard's primary role as a pass-catcher during a Bengals comeback effort.
Dallas has been absolutely putrid against the run recently, but I just don't trust Bernard to take advantage. I also could see Samaje Perine soaking up a few carries to limit Bernard's upside on the ground. This line jumped out to me because it features a total Bernard has reached only once all season. The wager comes in at plus-money. Sign me up.
The Play: Giovani Bernard under 55.5 rushing yards (+108 at DraftKings)
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