Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 16 (2020)

It had been a while since we had a clunker, but it was bound to happen eventually. Jalen Hurts was the only one to come through for us in Week 15. We’ll look to shake off that rough 1-2 outing with a better performance this time around.

Let's get right into the props for Week 16. For this week's picks, we floated between DraftKings and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to win you some money.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 16 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

The Prop: O/U 5.5 receptions for Darren Waller (LV)

The central target in the Las Vegas Raiders passing game has been on an absolute tear of late. Whether it's been Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota at quarterback, there has been no slowing down Waller in the last three weeks.

The athletic tight end has been peppered with opportunity, seeing 17, 10, and 12 targets over a trio of games in which he compiled 29 catches for 425 yards and three touchdowns. Though the Miami Dolphins have sneakily established one of the sturdier defensive units in the NFL this season, Waller's accomplishments have him approaching the ‘match-up proof’ label. Carr is expected to start Saturday night against Miami, nine days after leaving Las Vegas' last game with a groin injury. Frankly, it wouldn't matter to us if he didn't. Waller should be a primary focus of the Raiders’ offensive game plan regardless of who is throwing him the ball.

Though the Dolphins are typically tough on opposing tight ends, the Raiders can move Waller around in the formation as much as necessary to exploit the defense. Even in a difficult match-up, another game with double-digit targets wouldn't be a surprise. Waller at plus-money to catch at least six passes, a number he's cleared in four of his last five outings, feels like a strong value.

The Play: Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions (+109 at DraftKings, +110 at BetMGM)

The Prop: O/U 55.5 receiving yards for JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu Smith-Schuster's pre-game Tik Tok dances had been happening long before three straight Pittsburgh losses forced Mike Tomlin to put a lid on the weekly routines. The toast of the NFL as the last remaining unbeaten team in the league a few weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers are suddenly in free fall.

Now that the dancing has ceased, can JuJu and the Steelers turn things around?

Week 15 was a nightmare for JuJu. He caught three balls for just 15 yards and lost a fumble in an unthinkable loss to the lowly Bengals. Though it was Smith-Schuster's worst game in several months, it wasn't the first data point in a trend of low yardage totals for the 24-year-old wideout. The line set for his receiving total this week is a number he hasn't exceeded since Week 10. A lack of explosive plays for the entire Pittsburgh offense has limited Smith-Schuster's upside. Expanded competition for targets, with James Washington and Eric Ebron getting involved, relegates JuJu to more of an ancillary role.

As the storyline of his logo dancing fades, it's possible JuJu comes out Sunday with something to prove. At the end of the day, though, his success relies on Ben Roethlisberger's ability to competently lead the offense. With Ben looking cooked, Week 16 could leave the dynamic Smith-Schuster still seeking to regain his footing.

The Play: JuJu Smith-Schuster under 55.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)

The Prop: O/U 272.5 passing yards for Russell Wilson

So... What am I missing with this line? Seriously, somebody has to explain it to me.

I understand that the Rams typically stout defense laid an egg against the previously winless Jets last week. But shouldn't that mean that unit will be eager as ever to strut its stuff the next time out, especially against an NFC West rival with playoff implications on the line?

Look, Russell Wilson hasn't cleared 272.5 passing yards since Week 9, on November 8 against Buffalo. Pete Carroll simply isn't asking him to be that kind of quarterback at this point in the season. The days of Russ cooking are over; for now, anyway.

The Seahawks can now play a more traditional Pete Carroll brand of football. Their run game is far healthier now than it was earlier in the year when Wilson was granted the freedom to sling the ball all over the field. The Hawks will rotate through Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, and Rashaad Penny as they try to grind out a win. That's just the kind of game this is going to be; not the kind where Russ throws it back to his early-season presence in the MVP discussion.

This match-up should resemble the rugged NFC West tilts of a decade ago. Both teams will rely on their defenses and running backs to try and emerge victorious from an ugly game. Wilson may not throw for 200 yards, much less 272.5. If this game unfolds as expected, we'll confidently take the under, here.

The Play: Russell Wilson under 272.5 passing yards (-110 at BetMGM, -112 at DraftKings)

Bonus: Since we're fading Russ, we also tend to think under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Wilson is a value at +153 at DraftKings.

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