It had been a long time coming, but we were finally profitable on our props for Week 7, as Kyler Murray and Marvin Jones both balled out for us. Brandin Cooks also had a nice day with seven receptions, but he left us four measly receiving yards short of sweeping the week. No worries, that just means we’ve got room to improve upon our performance. It’s time to keep firing away on those props in search of perfection.
We’ll get right into the players and props to watch for in Week 8. For this week’s picks, we bounced between DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM to find the most favorable odds to help win you some money.
The Prop: O/U 91.5 rushing + receiving yards for Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Do we have any Ben DiNucci truthers in the house? Anyone? Bueller?
Look, I don’t want to make this out to be more dire than it is. The seventh-round rookie out of James Madison isn’t exactly taking the reins from a gunslinging stud, here. I honestly don’t think the Cowboys offense could look any worse under DiNucci than it did under the Red Rifle. Let’s see what the kid can do. Dallas WR Michael Gallup has been impressed, anyway!
With as much benefit as I can muster for this doubt, I’ll say DiNucci performs adequately in his first career start Sunday night. I don’t think the Cowboys light up the scoreboard, but I’ll at least say they find the end zone—which would be more than they did last week. What I don’t anticipate, though, is a Zeke Elliott game.
Defensively, the Cowboys are straight-up atrocious. Allowing three total touchdowns and over 200 yards rushing last week to Washington was probably the highlight of the season for the Dallas D. Sure, Philadelphia has had its own issues, but if ever there were a game for Carson Wentz to shine, this would be the one. Because I expect the turnstile tendencies of the Cowboys defense to continue, I don’t see how this game would profile positively for their star running back.
The Eagles haven’t allowed a running back to exceed 60 yards on the ground since Darrell Henderson in Week 2. Yes, the Cowboys should look to feed Zeke early. If they fall behind, though, I don’t trust him to pick up enough work in the receiving game to clear the yardage total on this prop. Tony Pollard has actually been siphoning away some of the passing down work from Elliott, as it is. This sets up as another underwhelming day at the office for Zeke.
The Prop: O/U 49.5 rushing + receiving yards for Le’Veon Bell (KC)
If you’ve got Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football, you’re obviously firing him up with a smile every week of the season. But seeing the Chiefs handle Denver last weekend without Mahomes needing to lift a finger would have me a little nervous heading into this week’s game against the Jets. Cross your own fingers that he feasts in the first half; if Andy Reid has any sense, The Franchise won’t even play in the second.
You know who should see plenty of work in garbage time, though? Le’Veon Bell. The recently released Jet had to be delighted to leave the clutches of the worst coach in all of North American professional sports, Adam Gase. What a difference a couple of weeks makes, as Bell has caught on with the most prolific offense in the NFL in Kansas City. And the revenge game narrative feels too good to pass up.
The Chiefs are favored by a whopping 19.5 points. There should be plenty of rushing volume to go around for both Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to contribute robustly to the final box score. And if I’m Reid, I’m more than happy to ride the veteran Bell under these circumstances, ensuring my first-round rookie runner remains fresh for the stretch run of the season.
No need to overthink it. In a game script that should feature ample touches, a motivated Bell should have no trouble clearing this total against the M-E-S-S, Mess, Mess, Mess.
The Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for Chase Claypool (PIT)
Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool is a human highlight reel. His nose for the end zone is remarkable, and his very existence could convince Ben Roethlisberger to play for an extra year or two. All that being said, I don’t understand what’s going on with this line at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Unless my eyes are deceiving me, the names Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster do not appear with any injury designation as we head into the weekend. Both missed practice Wednesday before practicing in full on Thursday and Friday. With both expected to be active, that could leave Claypool in a similar role to the one he filled last week—which isn’t a good thing. While Johnson popped for a monster game, Claypool caught just one ball for a loss of two yards on the day.
Sure, it’s possible the Steelers look to rectify Claypool’s lack of involvement from last week. Perhaps they get him involved in more goal-line situations given his ability to make noise in that area. Five receptions, though, feels like a considerable ask given the number of mouths to feed in a tough matchup. I’d project Claypool to score a rushing touchdown before I’d peg him to clear the over on this catch count. The return on investment for this wager isn’t attractive. The curious nature of this line has me interested in attacking it, anyway.
Bonus ‘nobody’s dumb enough to bet against the King’ line of the week: Derrick Henry under 104.5 rushing yards vs. Cincinnati (-115 at BetMGM). Or you could fade King Henry at under 117.5 rushing + receiving yards. Because for whatever reason, the Titans never scheme up very many screens for him. If I coached that offense, he’d get a mandatory screen pass per quarter. Anyway, I think this is a Ryan Tannehill game. Henry does fine, but he doesn’t go bonkers like everyone is expecting.
Bonus longshot of the week: Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr both over 300+ passing yards (+1100 at BetMGM)
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