The Indianapolis Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, October 11, for a Week 5 matchup at 1 p.m. ET. Explore the best NFL player props for Colts vs. Steelers as we analyze player workloads, defensive matchups and projections across passing, rushing and receiving markets. Our BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet enters the week with +86 units of profit, a 52.6% win rate and 3.5% ROI across 2,496 picks through four weeks. Find our favorite prop bets for Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh below.
NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Colts vs. Steelers
Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Colts vs. Steelers. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 5.
Best Bets for Colts vs. Steelers
The Commanders aren’t the only team facing the uphill trend of playing immediately after a London game. The Colts are in the same situation, and I feel much better betting against them here as road underdogs in Pittsburgh (coming off extra rest after playing two Thursday nights ago).
I think that matters for a team built like the Steelers, with an older defense and an old quarterback who has been taking a lot of hits. Pittsburgh has increased its passing volume this year compared with last year, when it was more of a run-focused team, and that’s starting to add up for Aaron Rodgers. I think you’ll see his production decline as the season progresses. But for Week 5, I very much like the Steelers laying just a FG. The Colts’ defense is not good (32nd in pressure rate), and Daniel Jones has also not been good (Colts offense ranks 31st in EPA/pass this season).
Per Next Gen Stats: Jones has committed a league-high five turnovers when under pressure this season, including two interceptions and three strip-sack fumbles lost (8 total sacks taken).
Even so, the Steelers’ secondary is paper thin and lost DT Derrick Harmon last week.
I thought the over was an interesting angle early in the week, but not with definite rain showers in the projected weather forecast.
Erickson’s Picks
- Steelers -2.5
Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Colts vs. Steelers
Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Colts vs. Steelers. And you can view all of our Week 5 NFL same game parlays.
- Leg 1: Steelers Moneyline (-148)
- Leg 2: Jaylen Warren 18+ Receiving Yards (-113)
- Leg 3: Josh Downs 50+ Receiving Yards (-145)
Normally we don't include Moneylines for our same-game parlays, but we'll make an exception here. Pittsburgh should be in prime bounce-back mode after losing to Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is in a tough travel and situational spot after beating up on Washington across the pond a week ago.
The Colts are still very unproven this season. Their two wins have come against the 0-4 Texans and a Commanders squad that rolled out its third-string quarterback in last week's London game. Previously, the Colts allowed 41 and 33 points in their losses to Baltimore and Kansas City, respectively.
It's an opportunity to sell high on the Colts, who have to hit the road right away after traveling back from London. The road matchup also comes against a hungry Steelers squad looking for a win. Take Pittsburgh to win at home to begin this parlay.
Look for the Steelers to use Jaylen Warren in the passing game as he clears the 18+ yardage line. This is a low bar for the running back, as he's averaging 35.8 receiving yards per game, with at least 27 in each of the four games. Warren now faces a Colts defense that's allowing 44.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, the fourth-most in the league. Rico Dowdle may return for Pittsburgh, but that shouldn't diminish Warren's role as a pass-catcher. Aaron Rodgers loves to dump it off to him.
On the Indianapolis side, count on Josh Downs being a top option for Daniel Jones in the passing attack. The Colts are dealing with multiple injuries in the receiving corps, leaving Downs and Tyler Warren as the only reliable targets. As for Downs, he was quiet last week but had 77 and 72 yards in the two games prior. The Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed 60+ yards to five different receivers over four games.
Parlay Odds: +410
Best NFL Player Props for Colts vs. Steelers
We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.
What is an NFL player prop bet?
An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.
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