Who doesn’t love a parlay, especially on Super Bowl Sunday? While parlays are not the most sustainable route to profitable sports betting, it’s hard not to get excited about the possibility of winning big and ending the football season on a high note.
My biggest piece of advice when booking any parlay is to make sure every leg correlates with each other and with how you expect the game to go. As you’ll see, every pick in my parlay helps tell the story of how I anticipate this game will go.
Without further ado, let’s get into my 7-leg Super Bowl LVI parlay that is currently at 14/1 at DraftKings.
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Leg 1: First quarter under 9.5 points
This first leg may make you squeamish, as our parlay could be cooked before Dr. Dre and Eminem even take the stage for the halftime show. If you’d prefer to just ignore this and move onto leg two, I get it.
But it’s worth noting that Super Bowls tend to start slow. We’ve seen double-digit scoring in the first quarter in just eight of the last 22 Super Bowls. Whether it’s nerves or just getting their feet wet, teams tend to start this game conservatively before opening things up in the second half.
The Bengals and Rams are also slow-starting teams. The Bengals averaged 4.3 points in the first quarter this season, while Los Angeles averaged four points in the opening 15 minutes. I also don’t suspect either Sean McVay or Zac Taylor to push the envelope on fourth down if they’re in field goal range, which helps this bet by reducing the potential of a touchdown.
Leg 2: Cooper Kupp over 106.5 receiving yards
Kupp has gone over this total in 13 games, including in his last two outings. I don’t see a Cincinnati defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass shutting him down. Even if Kupp gets double-teamed, his route running and rapport with Matthew Stafford will give him plenty of opportunities. This is actually the worst pass defense according to DVOA that Los Angeles has seen this postseason. Kupp should go off.
Leg 3: Cooper Kupp anytime TD scorer
I clearly like Kupp to win Super Bowl MVP. He has a touchdown in five straight games and is undeniably Stafford’s go-to weapon in the red zone. Double teams could pose a bigger threat in the red zone, as Kupp will have less real estate to work with. But I trust McVay to devise ways to get him the ball in the end zone.
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Legs 4 and 5: Tee Higgins over 69.5 receiving yards, Tyler Boyd at least 4 receptions
I’m lumping these two together because they both fit my overarching narrative. While I’m not going to be fading Ja’Marr Chase, I will not be taking any overs on him. The Rams play a lot of zone coverage, but I suspect Jalen Ramsey will be at least shadowing Chase when he lines up on the outside. And while the rookie has been phenomenal, Ramsey will be one of his toughest tests of his young career.
Therefore, I like Cincinnati’s ancillary weapons to play a sizable role. Higgins would be a No. 1 wideout on plenty of teams and could take advantage of Los Angeles’ lack of depth in the secondary. He’s eclipsed this yardage total in eight games, including his last two. With the emphasis being on limiting Chase, Higgins could be a dark horse MVP candidate.
Boyd let me down on his receiving yardage prop in the AFC Championship Game, but I’m going back to the well with him in the Super Bowl. The Rams don’t have great depth in the secondary beyond Ramsey, and they struggle particularly with covering the middle of the field. I don’t hate an over on Boyd’s receiving yardage total, but taking him to catch four balls is the safer choice. Boyd has caught at least four passes in 13 games this year.
Leg 6: Joe Mixon under 69.5 rushing yards
Mixon has actually gone under this total in 13 games this season, and I’m fading him in this game. Los Angeles ranks fifth against the run in DVOA. Their defensive line ranks sixth in adjusted line yards, 11th in stuff rate, and fifth in second-level yards. The Rams front should be able to control the trenches and limit the cutback lanes Mixon relies so heavily upon.
Los Angeles also can defend what Cincinnati does best in the running game, which is run off the right tackle. Cincinnati ranks 9th in the NFL in average line yards when running off the right tackle, but Los Angeles ranks fourth in that category against such runs.
This bet also plays nicely into how I envision Cincinnati’s game script playing out. I suspect the Rams will control the game, forcing Cincinnati to throw more in the second half rather than run out the clock with Mixon.
Leg 7: Los Angeles Rams to win the game
Finally, I’m picking the Rams to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. If you want to lay the 4.5 points with L.A. to give this parlay a little more juice, go for it. But at -4.5, I don’t see much value in taking the spread. Just a straight-up victory will do.
I expect Los Angeles to control the line of scrimmage early and rattle the seemingly unflappable Burrow. I know Cincinnati beat Tennessee despite Burrow getting sacked nine times. But Tennessee isn’t nearly as good as this Rams team, and Ryan Tannehill won’t be under center for L.A. Sunday evening.
The Rams are a star-laden team, and their stars match up well with Cincy. Stafford, Kupp, and Odell Beckham Jr. should have plenty of success against a mediocre Bengals secondary. Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd should feast on a susceptible Bengals offensive line. And Ramsey should do enough to at least contain Chase, forcing Burrow to go elsewhere with the ball.
Burrow and the Bengals have been a delightful story. But the Cinderella run ends here. Star power prevails.
Total Parlay: +1400 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.