Bills vs. Commanders: NFL Week 3 Picks & Player Prop Bets (2023)

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bills vs. Commanders.

NFL Betting Primer: Bills vs. Commanders

Washington Commanders (WAS) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Spread: BUF -6.5

The Bills head on the road after a big home demolition of the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. The line has moved heavily in Buffalo's favor since the Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites. Now a near TD favorite on the road, Buffalo will take on an undefeated Washington team, that is 3-0 under Sam Howell. But these wins are not against the most legitimate competition aside from the win versus Dallas last year. Arizona and Denver are easily two of the league's bottom-dwelling teams, so Buffalo will be a true test for the nation's capital. Especially considering Howell as led two 4^th quarter comebacks, something that he won't be able to achieve every single week.

Both defenses rank inside the top 8 in pressure rate this season, while both QBs have faced average pressure from the pocket in their first two matchups. Even so, Howell has taken the second-most sacks in the league (10), with the highest percentage of pressures that turn into sacks. Sacks are drive-killers, and I am concerned that with a total lack of sheer plays, Washington's offense might be overmatched in this spot. Again, their average yards per play this season ranks 23^rd (4.9). The Bills' opponents have generated the fewest plays per game.

Washington's offense has benefitted from generating a lot of raw big plays - 10^th in yards per completion – as they have not been great at sustaining drives. 28^th in third-down conversions. That was problematic for the Raiders last week, as the Bills just dominated the time of possession to overwhelm their opponent. Buffalo ranks 6^th in the third-down conversion rate. Washington has been able to "bully" two inferior opponents, but still needs 4^th quarter comebacks to come away with victories.

Even if they find success running the football with Brian Robinson against Buffalo - which remains to be seen after they allowed just -2 yards on the ground to Josh Jacobs a week ago - I think Washington is too overmatched.

Don't think we ever see Washington get in any type of rhythm, while Buffalo continues its strong play from last week.

The Bills are 7-6 toward the over in their last 13 games, but three of the unders have been versus the Jets (including this year's MNF). The Howell-led Commanders have scored at least 20 points in all their games averaging 27 points per game. The Bills narrowly got to the over last week with no help from the Raiders, but I am less confident about the 43.5 total with Washington's offense a concern for me this week. The Commanders' defense also plays better at home. Arizona's offense didn't score a TD against them in Week 1. And they allowed fewer than 20 points per game at home last season. No offense exceeded 24 points versus Washington at home, with 7/9 teams all scoring between 20-24 points.

Also per the FantasyPros Primer...the playcalling suggests a slower-paced game. As does the weather in the forecast calling for windy and rainy conditions.

"The Bills have taken the slow-and-throw approach. They have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while also rocking the third-highest neutral passing rate. The Commanders are running at the seventh-slowest pace while utilizing a run-balanced offense (15th in neutral passing rate)."

Originally, I liked the spot where I'll just back Buffalo's offense over 24.5 points, but the Commanders’ strong home splits have me backing off. Instead, I'll opt for the points band for Buffalo between 21-30 points. They averaged 26 points per game on the road last season. Likely they score 20-plus but potentially be held under 30 points.

As for props, I leaning toward the under on Sam Howell's passing yards. He has only gone over this number in one of his two NFL starts (last week) and that came on the back of three passing plays of 30-plus yards. The majority of the chunk yardage the Commanders picked up versus the Broncos was YAC. The Bills have allowed the 6^th-fewest yards after the catch and fewer than 200 passing yards in both contests this season. The Commanders had one play of 20-plus yards versus the Cardinals in Week 1.

I like parlaying the Howell under with the under on Terry McLaurin's receiving yards prop. McLaurin has just a 14% target rate per route run - same as Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel - and a 16% target share this season. Outside a 30-yard TD catch in Week 2, TMC has totaled six catches for 55 yards through two games. Prefer the 4.5 receptions under versus the yardage.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects running back Brian Robinson Jr. to fly over his carry total set at 14.5 (projected for 17 attempts at -110) which correlates and bolsters my stance on betting the under on the Commanders passing game.

My Picks:

Bills -6.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Buffalo total points band 21-30 (+135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 43.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Sam Howell UNDER 220.5 passing yards (-114 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Terry McLaurin UNDER 4.5 receptions (-136 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Terry McLaurin UNDER 52.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.