Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Bills vs. Patriots.

NFL Betting Primer: Bills vs. Patriots

New England Patriots (NE) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Bills (-8.5)

Early weather forecasts for rain/wind. As if this game couldn't get more gross. But bad weather plays in the advantage to the home underdog Patriots.

To start, we can easily get back to the under here. The Patriots offense continues to struggle, and they have been 6-0 toward the under this season.

Buffalo has gone under its projected game total in all of their road/neutral played games this season. Josh Allen is also dealing/nursing a shoulder injury.

When these teams met last year, it was split toward the under-over, while Buffalo won both outright by an average of 13 points.

Outside a bizarre showing on Sunday night, the Bills have either lost close games in dramatic fashion or blow teams out of the building.

Unfortunately for Patriots fans, this projects to be more of the latter. Josh Allen and company have won five of the last six meetings with New England, the one loss coming in an extremely rare wind game.

Buffalo has scored 35, 24, 33, 38, 24 in their victories versus the Pats. The Patriots haven't scored 20 points on offense since Week 1.

Unless the line moves into the double-digits - the process always says to take double-digit point underdogs at home - I am sticking with Buffalo -8.5.

The total is already low at 41 points...but my faith in New England establishing any semblance of offense doesn't project favorably. They had all the opportunities to run the ball last week versus a bad Raiders defense and couldn't score more than 17 points on offense.

The Bills run defense is equally as bad - if not worse than the Raiders - but it's a moot point if the Patriots are down 14-0 nothing after the first quarter and have to abandon the run.

With both teams boasting top-7 red-zone defenses, we might get more FGs than TDs which further puts me toward the under as the move.

On the props side, I am just fishing for value. Gabe Davis' 33.5 receiving yards prop is extremely low. He's gone over in four of 6 games this season including four in a row before last week. The Patriots defense ranks 6^th in receiving yards allowed per game to No. 2 WRs, setting Davis up nicely to get over the low bar.

My Picks:

Under 41 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bills -8.5 (-110 BetMGM)

My Props:

Gabe Davis over 33.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.