Broncos vs. Bills: NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Broncos vs. Bills.

NFL Betting Primer: Broncos vs. Bills

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have traditionally been a team to "fade" this season. 2-5-1 versus the spread. 3-5 straight up. The only team Denver has looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks.

Denver's defense opened the gates as an overmachine, but it's changed in recent weeks with the under-hitting in their last 3 games. Their defense has played better than out they started the season. Some of that can be based on just general regression - they couldn't keep up the historically bad pace - but it needs to be noted that it's not the same rollover unit it was to start. Specifically, they have been better against the run, which was their big issue at the start of the year.

The Broncos offense has come down to earth as well, with the team totaling fewer than 200 passing yards in four straight games.

Buffalo is crumbling before our eyes. 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season.

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home. 4-0 overall at home and 2-2 ATS. Along with back-to-back unders.

Josh Allen - despite the narrative that he is super careless with the ball - has two turnover-worthy plays over the team's last six games. Buffalo also boasts the third-best red-zone offense this season (69%).

Ultimately, I love the under here at a bloated 47 number. It's way too high. Bills’ defense improved dramatically in the final three quarters versus Cincinnati in Week 9 forcing that game to go under. And the Broncos' improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to hone in on No. 1 weapons. I expect Denver to throw everything at stopping Stefon Diggs, and that will make things tough on the Bills’ offense.

Bet another prime time under on MNF.

With Javonte Williams healthy, I expect more of a running game at the forefront of the road. Like the over on his rushing prop, while taking the under on Sutton’s receiving yards line at 46.5. He’s gone under this number in 62.5% of his games just once since Week 4.

My Picks:

Under 47

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.