Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 6:10 p.m. ET. It features 13 games. A game total and a team total are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Atlanta Braves (+176) at San Diego Padres (-210) | O/U 7.5 (+105/-126)
According to FantasyPros‘ park factors, Petco Park has the fourth-lowest park factor for runs (0.948). That’s bad news for the scoring outlook for the Braves and the Padres.
The starting pitching matchup is better news for the scoring outlook, though. Michael King has a 3.60 ERA; Grant Holmes has a 4.33 ERA this season. However, their ERA estimators are less flattering. According to FanGraphs, King has a 4.76 xERA, 4.36 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA; Holmes has a 4.72 xERA, 4.58 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA.
Both pitchers are also in lousy form. In the last 30 days, King has a 6.41 ERA, 7.49 xERA, 5.53 xFIP and 5.55 SIERA in five starts. Meanwhile, Holmes has a 5.48 ERA, 5.75 xERA, 4.53 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA in his previous five starts. Making matters worse for Holmes, he has a 5.08 ERA and 4.92 xFIP in 78 innings on the road since 2025.
Finally, the offenses are in good form. In the previous 30 days, the Padres are tied for sixth in wRC+ (108), and the Braves are eighth in wRC+ (104). Both offenses should scratch across a handful of runs and combine to clear the low bar of 7.5 runs tonight.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+105)
Chicago Cubs (-119) at New York Mets (-102) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-109)
Kodai Senga is an absolute trainwreck this season. Among 387 pitchers with at least 20 innings, Senga is 385th in ERA (9.00). Moreover, among 174 starting pitchers with at least 20 innings, Senga is 132nd in xERA (5.11), tied for 155th in xFIP (5.14) and 149th in SIERA (4.91).
Senga has been hammered by all batters. The veteran righty has surrendered a .436 wOBA to 54 left-handed batters and a .395 wOBA to 60 right-handed batters.
The Cubs have a potent offense to take advantage of their Charmin-soft matchup with Senga. Chicago is tied for seventh in wRC+ (106) versus righties and tied for 12th in wRC+ (100) on the road this season. The Cubs are also fourth in wRC+ (112) in the previous 30 days.
Chicago’s lineup isn’t perfect. Three of their projected starters have logged between an 81 wRC+ and a 90 wRC+ against righties since 2024. However, five have ripped off at least a 117 wRC+ against righties during that time frame.
The Cubs don’t have a flawless lineup, but they have enough depth, some high-end talent and a soft enough matchup to score at least five runs tonight. Finally, they won’t be shorted a set of at-bats in the ninth inning if they’re leading, as they’re on the road.
Pick: Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.