Buccaneers vs. Saints: NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Buccaneers vs. Saints.

NFL Betting Primer: Buccaneers vs. Saints

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NO -3)

This is why we watch football. Jameis Winston’s revenge game against a Baker Mayfield-Buccaneers squad that tasted defeat for the first time in Week 3. Although this isn't the first time Winston has faced his old team since joining the Saints. He played them at the start of last season, in Week 2.

The Saints lost 10-20 at home. Winston threw for 236 yards and 1 TD but was intercepted 3 times. Alvin Kamara did not play. Game closed at TB -2.5 with a 44-point total. The Bucs covered and the under hit. Winston was 0-3 vs the spread as the starter last year. 3-3 versus the spread during his six full starts in 2021.

This Week 4 matchup has a lower total at 40.5 than the one last season, with the Saints coming in a 3-point home favorites.

I've been transparent about the Saints being overrated with Derek Carr this season, even though they could easily be 3-0 based on their soft opening schedule. But they blew their massive lead last week and Carr is out as their starting QB.

Still, Winston is one of the league's best backup QBs, 5-4 straight up with the aforementioned 3-6 record versus the spread in his last nine full games.

But don't blame the loss on Winston last week. He got them in field position to kick a game-winning field goal. The team averaged 4.9 yards per play with Winston (3.6 with Carr). But most of their drives got nuked due to penalties.

In my FantasyPros Week 4 forecast, I wrote about how I thought Winston was a potential upgrade for this offense. And I am sticking by that. Because Winston can be this team's answer to its red-zone woes. They rank 27^th in red-zone efficiency this season with Carr at the helm. Last year, Winston threw 4 red-zone TDs in three games. In 2021, 11 TD and 0 red-zone interceptions in six full starts.

Winston has completed 69% of his red zone passes for 15 TDs and 0 INTs over the past two seasons (9 full games). Carr last year completed just 42% of his red-zone passes for 11 TD and 2 INTs. This year more struggles, with 29% completion rate and just two TDs on 17 red-zone attempts. Woof.

And on the Buccaneers' side, they have also struggled in the red zone. 30^th in red-zone scoring.

To make matters worse - or better if you want to bet the under – both these defenses have been stout in the red zone. Third best in TD rate allowed (33%) behind only Buffalo and Cleveland.

The under is clearly the play here. Don't think that's too hard to grasp. But from a sides perspective, I am backing the Winston-led Saints. I think we are getting a better price because he's viewed as a backup QB...but I've laid out reasons why that may not be the case. The Saints are also getting back a major offensive boost in the form of Alvin Kamara, while the Buccaneers are playing on a short week. Their secondary is banged up and they have to play on the road. They have also been horrible on third downs (30^th) which should aid in the Saints in sustaining drives.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has also traditionally locked down Bucs No. 1 WR, Mike Evans, who has accounted for 75% of the team's offensive TDs this season. Lattimore has been balling out to start the season, allowing just a 20.8 passer rating in coverage this season.

Think there's more than enough to back Saints -3. Because as unimpressive as the Saints' 2-1 start has been (should be 3-0), the Buccaneers are another fake 2-1 team that beat two teams that are currently 0-3.

My Picks:

Under 40.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Saints -3 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

Mike Evans under 60.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.