Chiefs vs. Broncos: NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Chiefs vs. Broncos.

NFL Betting Primer: Chiefs vs. Broncos

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

The third rematch we have in Week 8 of divisional teams that have already squared off this season. We saw an extremely unusual performance from Denver and KC when they met a few Thursday nights ago, with Denver's defense stifling the Chiefs’ offense in Kansas City.

The under hit swimmingly, while the Chiefs beat the Broncos (yet again), while pushing the 11-point spread with a 19-8 final.

I was on the over originally in that game with the closing line set at 47. Fast forward to this week and we have an 8-point spread (KC playing on the road) and an eerily close total at 46.5.

So as always, fade the overrated Broncos. 1-6 versus the spread. 2-5 straight up, with their only wins coming against a Bears team in a game they should have lost and another game versus GB they also easily could have lost in the final minutes.

KC's defense has been fierce this season, ranking 5th overall in DVOA and 4th in pass defense DVOA.

I think the Chiefs can win by more than TD in this spot because I expect a much greater effort from their offense. The Broncos' weakness is against explosive plays which KC did not take advantage of in their prior matchup. Patrick Mahomes' aDOT was a season-low 4.8 yards downfield. Last week it was his second-highest mark at 9.4 yards versus the Chargers. I think they dial up more aggressive passes and expose the Broncos' defense for what it truly is. Bad.

As for the total, Denver has been one of the over-machines this season. The Broncos went over its projected total in four straight games with all games eclipsing at least 52 points before their last two games. Since Nathaniel Hackett was fired at the end of 2022, Denver is 6-3 toward the over, with the Broncos averaging nearly 24 points per game on offense.

Pair the over with Javonte Williams OVER 10.5 carries. He has hit this mark in all his games that he has been 100% healthy for. Williams reclaimed RB1 duties last week carrying the ball 15 times for 82 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 21 yards (53% snap share, season-high).

Also love the overs on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards/attempts props. The Chiefs QB has gone over 34.5 attempts in five of seven games played this season including 40-plus over the last 3 games.

My Picks:

Chiefs -7 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Over 45.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

My Props:

Patrick Mahomes over 272.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Patrick Mahomes over 34.5 pass attempts (-120 BetMGM)
Javonte Williams over 10.5 rushing attempts (-125 BetMGM)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.