Week 6 features an AFC North matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Currently, the Steelers are the home favorites.
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Browns vs. Steelers Odds and Info
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Opening Lines: PIT -4.0, O/U 50.5
- Moneyline: CLE: (+164) | PIT: (-196)
- Spread: CLE: +3.5 (-110) | PIT: -3.5 (-110)
- Total: 51 - Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
- Location: Heinz Field - Pittsburgh, PA
- Start Time: 1 p.m. EST
- Coverage: CBS
Overview
The Browns have proven that they can put up points this season, as they’ve surpassed 30 points in four straight games. Much of their success is due to the running game and improvements along their offensive line. However, Nick Chubb is still out, and this line faces its toughest task of the season. Pro Football Focus gives them a -5% matchup differential in the running game, but a week-worst -46% in pass protection. The Steelers feature a tough defensive front, but they also blitz at the highest rate in the league (48.8%). Baker Mayfield struggled in his sophomore season due to his inability to perform under duress. The Steelers will look to bring that version out of him again.
While the Cleveland offense has been solid, their defense has struggled, allowing 383.4 yards per game (No. 21 in NFL). This is concerning since three of their five games were against Indianapolis, Washington, and Cincinnati, which are three teams that have had plenty of offensive struggles. Pittsburgh is a class above these teams, as Big Ben continues to look better every time he steps onto the field.
However, the Steelers are a bit beat up on offense. Diontae Johnson failed to practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. He left last game with yet another injury, but Mike Tomlin did say he expected him to play this week. However, that could be gamesmanship. Up front, guard David DeCastro hasn’t practiced and is at risk of being inactive. Facing a tough Browns defensive front, this could lead to issues for Ben Roethlisberger passing downfield despite Cleveland’s weak secondary. If the Browns get consistent pressure, they could get the upset.
Trends
- Cleveland is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games.
- The total has hit the over in four of Cleveland’s last five games.
- Pittsburgh is 10-4 straight up in its last 14 games.
- The total has hit the under in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 11 games.
Prop Bet
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
First Half Total: Under 26.5 (-130)
Both defensive fronts will be juiced and ready to go. While the offenses should make adjustments to slow them down as the game progresses, it will lead to mistakes early on. If the Steelers aren’t able to go deep and they slow down the Browns’ rushing attack, we could see a lot of punts and field goals in the first half.
Bottom Line
I think the defensive fronts will dictate the game script and the results of this game. Both quarterbacks should see their share of pressure, which will lead to mistakes from both passers. There will be a few too many mistakes and wasted possessions for the over to hit.
Pick: Under 51
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