College Football Conference Winner Long-Shots Odds & Picks (2023)

College football is back again this week. Nearly every team will lace up their cleats and strap on their helmets with grand goals in their sights, but only a few will get the opportunity to be crowned a conference champion. Who will be this year's TCU, a team that defied the odds to win a long-shot conference title in the Big 12? Let's take a look at some solid candidates to bring home some December hardware and cash out long conference future tickets.

College Football Conference Long-Shots

ACC – Louisville (+1400 FanDuel)

After a successful run at Purdue, Jeff Brohm finally jumped to his alma mater and will lead the Cardinals on the sideline in 2023. He is inheriting a pretty good situation in Louisville with a 19th-ranked defense in the nation per SP+.

This would bode well for a team that has to play talented offenses like Florida State, Clemson and UNC, but Louisville lucked out in the scheduling and avoids those top three teams in the ACC. Not only do they avoid those opponents, but they play each of the expected dregs of the conference, per SP+, with matchups against Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Duke.

On offense, the Cardinals will look toward transfer Jack Plummer who comes in via Cal and Purdue, where he was the backup QB in Jeff Brohm's offense. They'll have plenty of time to figure out exactly what that offense will look like in Louisville as their biggest ACC test doesn't come until a trip to Miami on 11/18. With Clemson and Florida State handing one or the other a loss on 9/23, Louisville is as good of a bet as any to swoop in and grab that second spot in Charlotte for the ACC title. At +1400, it's a great value on a long-shot ticket.

Big 12 – UCF (+3500 DraftKings)

Gus Malzahn is back in the Power 5 ranks after his unceremonious exit from Auburn. He's spent the last few years at UCF, but they've officially joined the Big 12 this year along with Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU.

Two sport star, John Rhys Plumlee, will take over at QB again after a year that saw him fight injuries following a promising start. The offense he leads comes into the season ranked 40th in SP+ and he'll be tasked with keeping pace with the high-flying offenses in the Big 12. To help with this physical, fast-paced play in the conference, Malzahn looked to the portal to add depth all over the roster.

The Knights will avoid heavy favorite, Texas, during the regular season and face perhaps their toughest test right out of the gate in conference play with a 9/23 matchup in Manhattan against Kansas State. If they can pass that opening test, they have the pieces, when healthy, to make a run to the Big 12 Title Game and pull off one of the biggest long-shot title bids in recent memory.

Big Ten – Iowa (+1600 Bet Rivers)

Make no mistake, this conference runs through the big guns: Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. That trio has accounted for the last seven Big Ten Titles. In what will be the last year of divisions in the conference, it is our last chance to get some real value in the Big Ten West that has gone 0-8 in Indianapolis since the divisions were established.

Iowa heads into the season, once again, with an elite defense. They rank 1st in SP+ in the metric, and with a historically bad offense last year, they still managed a respectable 5-4 in conference, just one game off of Purdue's pace who managed to win the division. The Hawkeyes will look to make big strides on offense bringing in QB Cade McNamara from Michigan who may be the most experienced passer in the conference. Erik All joins him at TE from Michigan and will look to keep up the tradition of strong TE play in Iowa City. Additionally, they add some talent at WR with Kaleb Brown transferring from Ohio State.

Iowa lucked out in their schedule, avoiding both Michigan and Ohio State. They do, however, travel to Happy Valley on 9/23 with a big matchup against Penn State. It will be the first big primetime game for Penn State QB Drew Allar and against this Iowa defense, it could spell trouble. An upset at Penn State as well as a win in Madison on 10/14 against the revamped Badgers could make or break the Hawkeyes' season. We've seen this team trudge its way through the Big Ten West many times to make it to Indianapolis. They have the pieces on offense to complement their stellar defense. At +1600 you have a great opportunity to hedge out on 12/2 or let it ride.

Pac-12 – UCLA (+1400 DraftKings)

The Pac-12 is loaded with explosive offenses. USC, Oregon, Washington, and Utah will return starting QBs from last year and are rightfully the top four favorites in the conference. Just outside of these four teams sits UCLA who may be just as good offensively as any of those squads. Coming into the season, they'll rank 11th in SP+. Losses at QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and RB in Zach Charbonnet make them less appealing than other teams, but Chip Kelly has built a deep program that is ready to reload instead of rebuild.

An early test in Salt Lake City on 9/23 may end up being easier with Utah QB Cam Rising's status somewhat up in the air after suffering an ACL injury to end his 2022 campaign. By this time UCLA will likely be starting 5-Star freshman QB Dante Moore, if he hasn't won the job before. After this matchup with Utah, things get easier as the Bruins avoid Oregon and Washington. The schedule also gifts them Stanford, Colorado and Arizona State who should finish at the bottom of the league. A late-season matchup with USC will loom large, but by that time the UCLA train should be rolling along.

Only Arizona has a longer Pac-12 Championship drought than UCLA (1998). In the final year of the Pac-12, I like UCLA's chances to end this drought. At +1400 they're a play that has a bunch of value in a conference that could beat itself up.

SEC – Ole Miss (+5000 Bet Rivers)

My final Power 5 long shot is my longest one yet. No teams in this conference will be able to compete with the talent and depth of Georgia and Alabama, but like many teams in the SEC, those two squads have questions at quarterback. One team that has depth and experience at that position is Ole Miss. Jaxon Dart returns for the Rebels, but breathing down his neck is former Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders. Sanders isn't the only transfer that will play a role in Oxford. Zakhari Franklin and Tre Harris are WRs that transferred in from mid-major schools and should make an immediate impact.

Ole Miss touts an 18th-ranked offense, per SP+, that is just as good as Alabama or LSU. If those two teams struggle with their quarterback situations, Ole Miss could be the team in the SEC West that takes advantage and swoop in. We'll know by the end of September if this is a dead ticket as the Rebels travel to Tuscaloosa and then host LSU in back-to-back weeks on 9/23 and 9/30. If they can survive that span then it might be smooth sailing, outside of a trip to Athens, for another matchup with Georgia in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.