College Football Prop Bets: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame (CFP National Championship)
If we were still operating under the four-team College Football Playoff (CFP) format neither Ohio State nor Notre Dame would have been included and given a chance to play for a National Championship. But alas, after each team proved they could hang with the best teams in the country in winning three CFP playoff games each, two storied programs do battle to be crowned national champions.
Unlike several of the other CFP matchups to this point, some decent data could provide insights into this matchup, considering these two teams played a home-and-home series the last two years.
What can we expect from a player prop perspective from this National Championship matchup? We are back to build off the momentum of our Orange Bowl player prop bets that went 2-1 last week.
Read on for our top three player prop bets and picks from Monday’s National Championship matchup between Ohio State and Notre Dame.
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Best College Football Player Prop Bets & Picks: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Let’s dive into our top college football player prop bet picks for this Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Will Howard Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-114)
At bet365, bettors can wager on Will Howard’s longest pass completion O/U of 40.5 yards. I point that out because that is a very lofty total for one’s longest pass completion and suggests the Buckeyes should be able to hit on some explosive pass plays, inflating Howard’s passing total.
Before the semi-final game against Texas, Ohio State’s offense led the FBS in completion percentage on passes of 20+ yards (59%).
The fact Howard threw for 289 yards and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt against Texas when star receiver Jeremiah Smith had just one catch for three yards speaks to the amount of weapons the Buckeyes have.
Howard has gone over 310 passing yards in two of the first three CFP games, averaging 306.3 yards per game in that span. The only way I see Howard staying under the projected total in this game is if Ohio State races out to a comfortable lead and he does not have to throw as much as usual, but I believe Notre Dame will be competitive in this game.
TreVeyon Henderson First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
Ohio State has come out firing and taken its opponents’ will early in most of these three CFP games thus far. On the first three possessions from each game, the Buckeyes have scored six total touchdowns against solid defensive squads (Tennessee, Oregon, Texas).
TreVeyon Henderson showed off his versatility with a 75-yard catch and run touchdown against Texas, but this wager is banking on Henderson being the hammer in the red zone of a fierce rushing attack.
Two other Buckeyes (Jeremiah Smith and Quinshon Judkins each at +500) have slightly shorter odds than Henderson, but there is great value in this play, considering Henderson has +370 odds to be the team’s first touchdown scorer.
Henderson had two rushing touchdowns in each of the first two playoff games, so I am not worried by the fact Judkins stole two touchdowns from Henderson last week. Can he make it two years in a row scoring the first touchdown against the Fighting Irish?
Jeremiyah Love Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Last week we cashed the under on Jeremiyah Love’s 47.5-yard rushing total, as he finished with 45 yards on 11 carries. While Ohio State’s defense is no slouch, Love had a brutal matchup in the semi-final, as Penn State entered that game holding opponents to zero or negative rushing yards on 32% of the rushing attempts faced.
Our key analysis point for backing the under last week was the question mark surrounding Love’s health, knowing he was working through an injury suffered in the Georgia game. Though he wore a brace, Love did not seem hampered much by the injury (he even hurdled another defender when he said he was not going to), and head coach Marcus Freeman has already said he expects him to be a “full-go” in practice and for the game.
Notre Dame knows it cannot rush for 116 yards and 2.8 yards per rush and expect to beat Ohio State, so I expect the coaching staff to devise ways to get Love some more explosive plays and for him to be given a heavy workload knowing this is the final game of the season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.